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Understanding, quantifying and modelling interactions between Energy and Sustainable Development: Geospatial tools and methods to support the sustainable development agenda
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems. (Energy Systems)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7217-3838
2025 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Sustainable development
SDG 7: Affordable and clean energy, SDG 1: No poverty, SDG 2: Zero hunger, SDG 3: Good Health and Well-Being, SDG 5: Gender equality, SDG 6: Clean water and sanitation, SDG 9: Industry, innovation and infrastructure, SDG 10: Reduced inequalities, SDG 13: Climate action, SDG 15: Life on land
Abstract [en]

Sustainable development is essential to ensure human well-being while preserving the life-support systems of the planet. However, the safe operating space of Earth is currently exceeded, preventing resources to regenerate and waste from being assimilated in time. Thus, sustainable development requires systemic transformations to align with the planet's carrying capacity, balancing economic, social, and environmental sustainability.

The United Nations adopted the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in 2015 to end poverty, protect the planet, and ensure peace and prosperity by 2030. The 17 interconnected SDGs aim to balance social, economic, and environmental sustainability, with specific targets and indicators for progress. SDG7, which focusses on access to clean and affordable energy, is closely linked with other SDGs, reinforcing many 2030 Agenda targets but also presenting potential trade-offs. Addressing these challenges requires integrating qualitative and quantitative methods, and promoting participatory approaches for collective ownership and consensus-building.

This thesis explores the use and development of geospatial approaches to quantify and model synergies and trade-offs between energy and other sustainability dimensions such as water (SDG6), health (SDG3), food (SDG2), gender equality (SDG5), and climate (SDG13), asking the question of how can Geographic Information Systems (GIS) be used effectively to model the interactions between energy and selected Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)? two main topics are identified to touch upon many of those interactions and recurrent in literature, as well as having potential to use geospatial approaches: spatial explicit modelling of water, energy, food (WEF) systems, and spatial explicit clean cooking energy access modelling. 

The strong interconnection between water, energy and food systems, calls for holistic planning to assess the impact that an action taken towards the sustainability of a resource (e.g. ease of water scarcity) may have on its interconnected systems (e.g. energy and food systems). Given the challenges of achieving these goals for water-stressed countries, the first research sub-question of this thesis aims at facilitating robust decision-making by quantifying how strategies to alleviate water scarcity in water-scarce regions impact energy and the overall dynamics of WEF Nexus systems. 

Papers I and II developed WEF Nexus models for Jordan and Morocco’s Souss-Massa river basin, focussing on key challenges such as water scarcity, agricultural productivity, energy use and climate change. The models used WEAP for water planning, MABIA for crop production, and a GIS-based model for energy analysis. The findings showed that desalination is necessary but must be combined with low-carbon energy. Improving agricultural water productivity benefits the WEF system overall, but has limited impact on municipal water scarcity. Reducing non-revenue water helps urban supply and energy use but can reduce water recharge in specific aquifers. Energy efficiency supports desalination and reduces emissions. Combined interventions yield the best results, and the switch to solar pumping in Souss-Massa was found to be viable both economically and environmentally. Finally, stakeholder involvement and shared decision metrics are crucial for addressing complex nexus issues. Furthermore, Paper III explores in detail how wastewater reuse in agriculture can affect the WEF system of the North Western Sahara Aquifer System. The results showed that the reuse of treated wastewater can ease groundwater stress, reduce energy use, and support sustainable development. Key recommendations include better water pricing, efficient irrigation, and decentralised wastewater treatment.

The second research topic focusses on the issue of achieving universal access to clean cooking energy. Around 2.1 billion people still rely on polluting fuels, leading to serious health risks, time burdens (especially for women and children), deforestation, and climate change. To capture these interactions, a spatial cost-benefit analysis was developed, comparing current cooking methods with cleaner alternatives, and assessing health, environmental, and economic impacts to identify the most beneficial clean cooking options.

In paper IV, the first open-source spatial cost-benefit analysis tool for clean cooking transitions, OnStove, was developed and applied to Sub-Saharan Africa. The results revealed a major market failure in the region, as traditional biomass use for cooking is predominant despite offering the lowest social benefits. Switching to cleaner stove mixes would yield major gains, but requires targeted policy support. Moreover, in Paper V, the OnStove approach is expanded by integrating stakeholder preferences to guide clean cooking policies in Nepal. This helped identify priority areas for action and supported more effective resource allocation in the government's subsidy plan for clean cooking technologies.

The main research question is answered by taking results from each article. GIS was a powerful tool that worked as an integrator of models and helped to fill data gaps. In WEF Nexus modelling, capturing spatial variability of resources and different topographic characteristics was essential to understand impacts on energy requirements and identify context-specific feedback loops. Spatial mapping also allowed matching supply and demand points, optimising the use of local resources. GIS methods also provided a more detailed understanding of the costs and benefits of achieving cleaner cooking transitions than was previously possible. The spatially explicit modelling approach can highlight geographical and socio-economic variations, enabling targeted policy interventions and reducing potential affordability constraints. Finally, the development of open-source methods allows scalability and replicability of the analysis in other countries, supporting open science and the achievement of the 2030 Agenda.

Abstract [sv]

Hållbar utveckling är avgörande för att säkerställa mänskligt välbefinnande samtidigt som planetens livsuppehållande system bevaras. Jordens säkra operativa utrymme överskrids dock för närvarande, vilket förhindrar att resurser återbildas och att avfall assimileras i tid. Hållbar utveckling kräver således systemiska omvandlingar för att anpassas till planetens bärförmåga och balansera ekonomisk, social och miljömässig hållbarhet.

Förenta nationerna antog målen för hållbar utveckling (Sustainable Development Goals, SDGs) 2015 för att avskaffa fattigdom, skydda planeten och säkerställa fred och välstånd till 2030. De 17 sammankopplade SDGs syftar till att balansera social, ekonomisk och miljömässig hållbarhet, med specifika mål och indikatorer för framsteg. SDG7, som fokuserar på tillgång till ren och prisvärd energi, är nära kopplat till andra SDGs, vilket förstärker många mål i Agenda 2030 men också presenterar potentiella målkonflikter. Att hantera dessa utmaningar kräver integration av kvalitativa och kvantitativa metoder samt främjande av deltagande metoder för kollektivt ägarskap och konsensusbyggande.

Denna avhandling utforskar användningen och utvecklingen av geobaserade metoder för att kvantifiera och modellera synergier och målkonflikter mellan energi och andra hållbarhetsdimensioner såsom vatten (SDG6), hälsa (SDG3), mat (SDG2), jämställdhet (SDG5) och klimat (SDG13). Den ställer frågan om hur Geografiska Informationssystem (GIS) effektivt kan användas för att modellera interaktionerna mellan energi och utvalda mål för hållbar utveckling (SDGs). Två huvudämnen identifieras som berör många av dessa interaktioner och som återkommer i litteraturen, samt har potential att använda geobaserade metoder: rumsligt explicit modellering av vatten-, energi- och livsmedelssystem (WEF) samt rumsligt explicit modellering av tillgång till ren matlagningsenergi.

Den starka sammankopplingen mellan vatten-, energi- och livsmedelssystem kräver holistisk planering för att bedöma den inverkan som en åtgärd för en resurs hållbarhet (t.ex. att lindra vattenbrist) kan ha på dess sammankopplade system (t.ex. energi- och livsmedelssystem). Med tanke på utmaningarna med att uppnå dessa mål för vattenstressade länder, syftar avhandlingens första forskningsfråga till att underlätta robust beslutsfattande genom att kvantifiera hur strategier för att lindra vattenbrist i vattenfattiga regioner påverkar energi och den övergripande dynamiken i WEF Nexus-system.

Artiklarna I och II utvecklade WEF Nexus-modeller för Jordanien och Marockos Souss-Massa flodbäcken, med fokus på nyckelutmaningar som vattenbrist, jordbruksproduktivitet, energianvändning och klimatförändringar. Modellerna använde WEAP för vattenplanering, MABIA för grödproduktion och en GIS-baserad modell för energianalys. Resultaten visade att avsaltning är nödvändigt men måste kombineras med koldioxidsnål energi. Att förbättra jordbrukets vattenproduktivitet gynnar WEF-systemet överlag, men har begränsad inverkan på kommunal vattenbrist. Att minska icke-debiterat vatten hjälper stadens försörjning och energianvändning men kan skada specifika akviferer. Energieffektivitet stödjer avsaltning och minskar utsläpp. Kombinerade interventioner ger bäst resultat, och övergången till solcellsdriven pumpning i Souss-Massa befanns vara genomförbar både ekonomiskt och miljömässigt. Slutligen är intressenternas deltagande och gemensamma beslutsmetriker avgörande för att hantera komplexa nexus-frågor. Dessutom utforskar Artikel III i detalj hur återanvändning av avloppsvatten inom jordbruket kan påverka WEF-systemet i North Western Sahara Aquifer System. Resultaten visade att återanvändning av behandlat avloppsvatten kan lätta på trycket på grundvattnet, minska energianvändningen och stödja hållbar utveckling. Viktiga rekommendationer inkluderar bättre vattenprissättning, effektiv bevattning och decentraliserad avloppsvattenrening.

Det andra forskningsämnet fokuserar på frågan om att uppnå universell tillgång till ren matlagningsenergi. Cirka 2,1 miljarder människor förlitar sig fortfarande på förorenande bränslen, vilket leder till allvarliga hälsorisker, tidsbördor (särskilt för kvinnor och barn), avskogning och klimatförändringar. För att fånga dessa interaktioner utvecklades en rumslig kostnads-nyttoanalys som jämför nuvarande matlagningsmetoder med renare alternativ och bedömer hälsa, miljömässiga och ekonomiska effekter för att identifiera de mest fördelaktiga alternativen för ren matlagning.

I artikel IV utvecklades OnStove, det första rumsliga verktyget med öppen källkod för kostnads-nyttoanalys av övergångar till ren matlagning, och tillämpades i Afrika söder om Sahara. Resultaten visade ett stort marknadsmisslyckande i regionen, då traditionell användning av biomassa för matlagning är dominerande trots att den erbjuder lägst social nytta. Att byta till renare spismixar skulle ge stora vinster, men kräver riktat politiskt stöd. Dessutom utökas OnStove-metoden i Artikel V genom att integrera intressentpreferenser för att vägleda politiken för ren matlagning i Nepal. Detta hjälpte till att identifiera prioriterade områden för åtgärder och stödde en effektivare resursallokering i regeringens subventionsplan för teknik för ren matlagning.

Den huvudsakliga forskningsfrågan besvaras genom att ta resultat från varje artikel. GIS var ett kraftfullt verktyg som fungerade som en integrator av modeller och hjälpte till att fylla datagap. I WEF Nexus-modellering var det avgörande att fånga rumslig variation av resurser och olika topografiska egenskaper för att förstå påverkan på energibehov och identifiera kontextspecifika återkopplingsmekanismer. Rumslig kartläggning möjliggjorde också matchning av utbuds- och efterfrågepunkter och optimering av användningen av lokala resurser. GIS-metoder gav också en mer detaljerad förståelse av kostnaderna och fördelarna med att uppnå renare matlagningstransitioner än vad som tidigare varit möjligt. Den rumsligt explicita modelleringsmetoden kan belysa geografiska och socioekonomiska variationer, vilket möjliggör riktade politiska interventioner och minskar potentiella prisbegränsningar. Slutligen möjliggör utvecklingen av metoder med öppen källkod skalbarhet och replikerbarhet av analysen i andra länder, vilket stödjer öppen vetenskap och uppnåendet av Agenda 2030.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm, Sweden: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2025. , p. 217
Series
TRITA-ITM-AVL ; 2025:19
Keywords [en]
Sustainable development, SDG7, GIS, WEF nexus, Clean Cooking
Keywords [sv]
Hållbar utveckling, SDG7, GIS, WEF nexus, Ren matlagning
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Energy Technology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-363915ISBN: 978-91-8106-291-5 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-363915DiVA, id: diva2:1961308
Public defence
2025-06-11, Q2 / https://kth-se.zoom.us/j/66400631747, Malvinas väg 10 , KTH, Stockholm, 13:30 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2025-05-27 Created: 2025-05-26 Last updated: 2025-07-01Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. An assessment of strategies for sustainability priority challenges in Jordan using a water-energy-food Nexus approach
Open this publication in new window or tab >>An assessment of strategies for sustainability priority challenges in Jordan using a water-energy-food Nexus approach
Show others...
2022 (English)In: DISCOVER SUSTAINABILITY, ISSN 2662-9984, Vol. 3, no 1, article id 23Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This study aimed at supporting robust decision-making for planning and management of water-energy-food Nexus systems in the country of Jordan. Nexus priority challenges in Jordan were identified as (1) water scarcity, (2) agricultural productivity and water quality, and (3) shift to energy independence. We created a water-energy-food Nexus model that integrates three modelling frameworks: (1) the Water Evaluation and Planning system WEAP model to estimate water demands, supplies and allocation; (2) the MABIA model to estimate crop production, and, (3) a GIS-based energy modelling tool to estimate energy requirements of the water system. Through a set of scenario runs, results show how desalination is needed to address water scarcity, but it has to be coupled with low-carbon electricity generation in order to not exacerbate climate change. Improving water productivity in agriculture improves most of the studied dimensions across the water-energy-food security nexus; however, it does little for water scarcity at the municipal level. Reducing non-revenue water can have positive effects on municipal unmet demand and reduction of energy for pumping, but it does not improve agricultural water productivity and may have negative feedback effects on the Jordan Valleys aquifer levels. Energy efficiency can support energy-intensive projects, like desalination, by substantially reducing the load on the energy system, preventing increased emissions and achieving a more resilient water system. Finally, when all interventions are considered together all of the major drawbacks are reduced and the benefits augmented, producing a more holistic solution to the WEF Nexus challenges in Jordan.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Nature, 2022
Keywords
Nexus, WEF, WEAP, MABIA, GIS
National Category
Energy Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-324705 (URN)10.1007/s43621-022-00091-w (DOI)000953282700001 ()2-s2.0-85142431731 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20230920

Available from: 2023-03-15 Created: 2023-03-15 Last updated: 2025-05-26Bibliographically approved
2. From participatory process to robust decision-making: An Agriculture-water-energy nexus analysis for the Souss-Massa basin in Morocco
Open this publication in new window or tab >>From participatory process to robust decision-making: An Agriculture-water-energy nexus analysis for the Souss-Massa basin in Morocco
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2022 (English)In: Energy for Sustainable Development, ISSN 0973-0826, E-ISSN 2352-4669, Vol. 70, p. 314-338Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The Water-Energy-Food (WEF) framework is widely used to address sustainability and resource management questions. However, many WEF methods miss engaging with stakeholders in the process. In this study, we intro-duce a stakeholder-driven and model-supported robust nexus decision-making framework. This methodology is exemplified by a case study in the Souss-Massa basin (SMB) which has significant importance for the agricultural sector in Morocco. However, the water scarcity exacerbated by climate change, overexploitation of groundwater and heavy use of fossil fuels for pumping is threatening the future of this fertile land. An integrated agriculture, water and energy model was developed to explore various potential solutions or scenarios such as desalination, wastewater reuse and improved water productivity. The analysis revealed that engaging with stakeholders and developing common robust nexus decision metrics is essential to establishing a shared and transparent approach to address the complicated nexus challenges. It also showed that no one solution can address all nexus challenges and highlighted the need for an integrated strategy that stimulates the contributions from different sectors. Fi-nally, the transition from fossil fuel groundwater pumping to solar pumping is shown to be economically and en-vironmentally viable.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV, 2022
Keywords
WEF-Nexus, Integrated assessment, WEAP, GIS, SDGs
National Category
Environmental Sciences Water Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-320294 (URN)10.1016/j.esd.2022.08.009 (DOI)000860992200002 ()2-s2.0-85135896505 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20221024

Available from: 2022-10-24 Created: 2022-10-24 Last updated: 2025-05-26Bibliographically approved
3. Reusing wastewater for agricultural irrigation: a water-energy-food Nexus assessment in the North Western Sahara Aquifer System
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Reusing wastewater for agricultural irrigation: a water-energy-food Nexus assessment in the North Western Sahara Aquifer System
2021 (English)In: Environmental Research Letters, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 16, no 4, article id 044052Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The North Western Sahara Aquifer System stands out as one of the water scarcest regions in the world. Moreover, in recent decades agriculture activity has grown exacerbating the pressure on groundwater resources and pumping energy requirements. In this study, a water-energy-food Nexus approach was used to assess the effect of capturing, treating and reusing wastewater for irrigation. GIS-based tools were used to capture the systems spatial dimension, enabling to match wastewater supply and water demand points, identify demand hotspots and evaluate techno-economically viable wastewater treatment options. Moreover, the minimum energy requirements for brackish water desalination were estimated. Seven domestic wastewater treatment technologies and one irrigation tailwater treatment technology were evaluated, making use of a levelized cost of Water methodology to identify the least-cost system. Four scenarios were constructed based on water-consumption behaviour of farmers towards changes in irrigation water pricing. The identified least-cost wastewater treatment technologies showed clear trade-offs, as different technologies were more cost-effective depending on treatment capacity requirements of the spatially distributed agglomerations. The reuse of treated wastewater/tailwater in agricultural irrigation, showed improvement of groundwater stress, reducing on about 49% water abstractions and groundwater stress levels in the best case scenario. However, groundwater stress still fell on the extremely high category, highlighting the critical condition of the aquifer. Furthermore, reuse of wastewater/tailwater decreased dependency on groundwater pumping and the overall energy-for-water requirements, reducing by about 15% the total energy requirements in the best case scenario. However, to effectively preserve water resources and act holistically towards the sustainable development agenda, measures as better water pricing mechanisms, management strategies to improve water productivity and adoption of more efficient irrigation schemes may be needed.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IOP Publishing, 2021
Keywords
water, energy, agriculture, Nexus, wastewater reuse, NWSAS, GIS
National Category
Water Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-293563 (URN)10.1088/1748-9326/abe780 (DOI)000637343600001 ()2-s2.0-85104919087 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20210517

Available from: 2021-05-17 Created: 2021-05-17 Last updated: 2025-05-26Bibliographically approved
4. A geospatial approach to understanding clean cooking challenges in sub-Saharan Africa
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A geospatial approach to understanding clean cooking challenges in sub-Saharan Africa
2023 (English)In: Nature Sustainability, E-ISSN 2398-9629, Vol. 6, no 4, p. 447-457Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Universal clean cooking is a key target under Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7, with implications for several other SDGs, such as good health, gender equality and climate. Yet, 2.4 billion people globally still lack access to clean cooking. The situation is especially dire in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where only 17% use clean options. We develop OnStove, an open-source spatial tool comparing the relative potential of different cookstoves on the basis of their costs and benefits, and apply it to SSA. Our results suggest a severe market failure as the currently most used solution, traditional biomass, produces the lowest social net-benefits nearly everywhere in SSA. Correcting this failure, which stems from multiple market and behavioural obstacles, would deliver significant health, time and emission benefits but requires identification and promotion of policies to transform cooking energy use. Spatial mapping offers a more nuanced understanding of the costs needed to deliver cleaner cooking transitions than was previously possible, which is useful for improved targeting of intervention strategies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Nature, 2023
National Category
Energy Systems Climate Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-330073 (URN)10.1038/s41893-022-01039-8 (DOI)000949185900003 ()2-s2.0-85146190591 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20230626

Available from: 2023-06-26 Created: 2023-06-26 Last updated: 2025-05-26Bibliographically approved
5. Achieving Nepal's clean cooking ambitions: an open source and geospatial cost–benefit analysis
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Achieving Nepal's clean cooking ambitions: an open source and geospatial cost–benefit analysis
Show others...
2024 (English)In: The Lancet Planetary Health, E-ISSN 2542-5196, Vol. 8, no 10, p. 754-765Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Background: Cooking with traditional fuels can lead to severe health issues caused by household air pollution, and can also affect gender equality and drive environmental degradation. In Nepal, despite government efforts to promote electric cooking, more than half of the population still uses traditional fuels, with electric cooking adoption remaining below 1%. Several of the barriers to and enablers of clean cooking vary geographically; however, few studies have considered spatial explicit information in planning national-scale transitions to clean cooking. In this study we provide a spatially explicit roadmap to estimate the required investments and benefits gained from the transition across Nepal. Methods: This study uses geospatial modelling methods to evaluate strategies to achieve the Government of Nepal's vision for a national-scale transition to clean cooking. We integrate the open-source clean cooking geospatial assessment tool OnStove and a spatial multicriteria analysis model. With OnStove, we evaluate which cooking technologies and fuels maximise the net benefits of a clean-cooking transition across each km2 of the region. With the multicriteria analysis, we weigh stakeholder preferences and prioritise areas of action where policy should be implemented. We used the most up-to-date geospatial data to the year 2023, such as the High Resolution Settlement Layer, Open Street Maps’ road networks, the Global Human Settlement Layer, NASA/USGS forest cover maps, and Facebook's Relative Wealth Index, among others. We also relied on data from the Nepal Oil Corporation, the Nepal Electricity Agency, the Central Bureau of Statistic's 2021 national census, and the Alternative Energy Promotion Center. We evaluate four scenarios capturing advances on clean cooking policy up to the year 2022, current market inefficiencies, and the potential effects of new policies for clean-cooking transition in Nepal. Findings: Our results show that transitional and clean cooking technologies provide higher net benefits than traditional options everywhere across Nepal in all scenarios. Our net-benefit analysis shows that around 9563 deaths could be averted yearly if benefits and externalities were perceived and valued correctly. Furthermore, substantial benefits could be achieved in regard to greenhouse gas emissions avoidance, time saved, and health-cost reductions. Our results also show that the current subsidy strategy from the Government of Nepal is well aligned with the benefits achieved under a cost–benefit analysis. In this context, electric cooking can bring the highest benefits to the largest part of the population. The analysis showed how high subsidies for liquefied petroleum gas in Nepal can present trade-offs with energy security and independence, and how this could be avoided by transferring part of the subsidy to cover differentiated electric cooking tariffs. Accounting for stakeholder preferences and sociodemographic and geographical differences to prioritise areas of focus can balance affordability constraints and target the most vulnerable people first, thus achieving integrated and inclusive planning. Interpretation: Using spatially explicit modelling approaches to evaluate strategies for a clean cooking transition can provide more nuanced results that have not been possible before. This approach can enable data-driven and integrated planning to help to understand which locations of a study area should be prioritised for policy application. Integrated planning can help to reduce affordability constraints on the population and design strategies for a sustainable and inclusive transition. These strategies allow financial institutions, donors, impact investors, development organisations, and government agencies to use their resources, funds, and assistance to create a large impact. Funding: Clean Cooking Alliance.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV, 2024
National Category
Energy Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-354902 (URN)10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00209-2 (DOI)39393377 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-85205531769 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20241030

Available from: 2024-10-16 Created: 2024-10-16 Last updated: 2025-05-26Bibliographically approved

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