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Installation of renewable capacities to meet energy demand and emission constraints under uncertainty
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Mathematics (Div.).ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1662-0215
Department of Mathematics, University of Oslo, P.O.Box 1053 Blindern, NO-0316 Oslo.
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Probability, Mathematical Physics and Statistics.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9065-1410
2025 (English)In: IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, ISSN 1471-678X, E-ISSN 1471-6798, Vol. 37, no 1, p. 39-60Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper focuses on minimizing the costs of installing renewable energy capacity while meeting emission constraints under uncertainty in both energy demand and renewable production. We consider a setting where decision-makers must determine when and how much renewable capacity to install, balancing investment costs with future emissions. Our optimization problem combines cost minimization with a probabilistic constraint on total accumulated emissions, reflecting regulatory limits that may be exceeded only with small probability. We examine different investment strategies, allowing for one or multiple installation times, and provide explicit solutions in simplified cases. Our main insight is that, under reasonable assumptions on costs and uncertainty, a single, well-timed investment is optimal and may be delayed to reduce costs when uncertainty and discounting are accounted for. These results challenge common stepwise installation strategies and suggest that committing to a single large investment, possibly postponed, may be more cost-effective and efficient in reaching emission targets. Our findings offer practical guidance for policymakers and energy planners on how to balance costs, timing and environmental goals when expanding renewable energy capacity under uncertainty.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Oxford University Press (OUP) , 2025. Vol. 37, no 1, p. 39-60
Keywords [en]
optimization with probabilistic constraints, capacity expansion, energy systems, renewable energy, emission reduction
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-366371DOI: 10.1093/imaman/dpaf023ISI: 001520418800001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105027317659OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-366371DiVA, id: diva2:1982131
Funder
Swedish Research Council, 2020-04697
Note

QC 20260127

Available from: 2025-07-07 Created: 2025-07-07 Last updated: 2026-01-27Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Deep Learning and Optimal Stochastic Control with Applications
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Deep Learning and Optimal Stochastic Control with Applications
2026 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This thesis brings together theoretical advances in stochastic optimal control and modern deep learning techniques, with particular emphasis on applications in environmental and energy systems. The first group of contributions investigates optimal control from a theoretical perspective, developing new results and illustrating their relevance through real world applications. The second part explores deep learning methods for solving stochastic differential equations and control problems that are analytically intractable.

We begin by studying impulse control problems for conditional McKean--Vlasov jump diffusions, extending the classical verification theorem to the setting in which the state dynamics depend on their conditional distribution. We then examine an optimal control problem for pollution growth on a spatial network, formulated in a deterministic framework but capturing how environmental policies propagate across interconnected geographical regions. Finally, we develop a model for investment in renewable energy capacity under uncertainty, characterising how optimal installation strategies change in response to fluctuations in energy demand and production. These contributions show how stochastic control can be used to address pressing challenges in environmental regulation and energy planning.

The second line of research focuses on deep learning methods for backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) and related formulations, together with direct machine learning approaches for high-dimensional stochastic control. Specifically, we solve Dynkin games by reformulating them as doubly reflected BSDEs, enabling the computation of optimal stopping strategies in energy market contracts. We further develop a deep learning solver for backward stochastic Volterra integral equations (BSVIEs), extending neural BSDE methods to systems with memory. In addition, we propose a machine learning framework for renewable capacity investment under jump uncertainty, treating the problem both through a direct control learning strategy and through a newly developed solver for pure jump BSDEs.

Overall, this thesis lies at the intersection of rigorous mathematical analysis and machine learning-based approaches to stochastic optimal control. On the one hand, we show how careful modeling and theoretical results enable the formulation and study of complex, realistic control problems; on the other hand, we demonstrate how modern machine learning techniques provide powerful tools for solving these problems efficiently. The applications are motivated by urgent questions in environmental and energy sustainability.

Abstract [sv]

Denna avhandling förenar teoretiska framsteg inom stokastisk optimal styrning med moderna djupinlärningsmetoder, med särskild tonvikt på tillämpningar inom miljö- och energisystem. Den första gruppen av bidrag undersöker optimal styrning ur ett teoretiskt perspektiv, utvecklar nya resultat och visar dess relevans genom praktiskt motiverade exempel. Den andra delen behandlar djupinlärningsmetoder för att lösa stokastiska differentialekvationer och styrproblem som annars är analytiskt oöverskådliga.

Vi börjar med att studera impulskontrollproblem för betingade McKean–Vlasov-hoppdiffusioner och utvidgar den klassiska verifikationssatsen till situationer där systemets dynamik beror på dess betingade fördelning. Därefter analyseras ett optimalt styrproblem för utsläppstillväxt på ett rumsligt nätverk, formulerat deterministiskt men avsett att fånga hur miljöpolitiska beslut sprids över sammanlänkade geografiska regioner. Slutligen utvecklar vi en modell för investering i förnybar energikapacitet under osäkerhet, där vi karakteriserar hur optimala installationsstrategier påverkas av variationer i efterfrågan och produktion. Dessa bidrag visar hur stokastisk styrning kan användas för att hantera centrala frågor inom miljöreglering och energiplanering.

Den andra forskningslinjen fokuserar på djupinlärningsmetoder för bakåtriktade stokastiska differentialekvationer (BSDE:er) och relaterade formuleringar, samt direkta maskininlärningsmetoder för högdimensionella stokastiska styrproblem. Vi löser särskilt Dynkin-spel genom att formulera dem som dubbelt reflekterande BSDE:er, vilket möjliggör beräkning av optimala stoppstrategier i energimarknadskontrakt. Vidare utvecklar vi en djupinlärningsbaserad lösare för bakåtriktade stokastiska Volterra-integralekvationer (BSVIE:er), och utvidgar därmed neurala BSDE-metoder till system med minnesstruktur. Dessutom föreslår vi ett maskininlärningsramverk för investeringar i förnybar kapacitet under hopp-osäkerhet, både genom direkt styrinlärning och genom en ny lösare för rena hopp-BSDE:er.

Sammantaget placerar sig denna avhandling i gränslandet mellan rigorös matematisk analys och maskininlärningsbaserade metoder för stokastisk optimal styrning. Å ena sidan visar vi hur noggrann modellering och teoretiska resultat möjliggör formulering och studie av komplexa, realistiska styrproblem; å andra sidan visar vi hur moderna djupinlärningstekniker ger kraftfulla verktyg för att lösa dessa problem på ett effektivt sätt. Tillämpningarna är motiverade av aktuella och angelägna frågor inom miljömässig och energimässig hållbarhet.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2026. p. 305
Series
TRITA-SCI-FOU ; 2025:71
Keywords
Stochastic optimal control; optimal stopping; Deep learning; Impulse control; McKean--Vlasov dynamics; Jump diffusions; BSDEs; Renewable energy investment; Pollution control; BSVIEs; Machine learning, Stokastisk optimal styrning; Optimalt stopp; Djupinlärning; Impulskontroll; McKean–Vlasov-dynamik; Hoppdiffusioner; BSDE:er; Förnybar energiinvestering; Utsläppskontroll; BSVIE:er; Maskininlärning.
National Category
Computational Mathematics
Research subject
Applied and Computational Mathematics, Mathematical Statistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-375351 (URN)978-91-8106-492-6 (ISBN)
Public defence
2026-02-06, Q2, Malvinas väg 10, Stockholm, 10:00
Opponent
Supervisors
Note

QC 2026-01-13

Available from: 2026-01-13 Created: 2026-01-12 Last updated: 2026-01-13Bibliographically approved

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