kth.sePublications KTH
Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
As-if-Markov reserves for reserve-dependent payments
Institute of Mathematics, Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg, 26111 Oldenburg, Germany.
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Probability, Mathematical Physics and Statistics.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6608-0715
2025 (English)In: Insurance, Mathematics & Economics, ISSN 0167-6687, E-ISSN 1873-5959, Vol. 124, article id 103129Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In multistate life insurance, prospective reserves are commonly calculated as expectations conditioned only on the current state of the individual policy, rather than on the full observed past history, which is well motivated in Markov models, but is often done even when the empirical data does not show the Markov property. The resulting as-if-Markov prospective reserves then represent partially portfolio averaged values rather than individual values. This averaging effect is particularly relevant when individual policies are lapsed or modified, where it is common practice to credit the individual reserve to the policyholder, making the cashflow reserve-dependent. Such reserve dependence is normally avoided by applying the Cantelli theorem, but this does not work for as-if-Markov reserves without the Markov property. We show that, under mild technical assumptions, the as-if-Markov prospective reserves are still well defined despite the circularity in their definition, and we explain how they can be computed numerically by fixed-point iteration.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV , 2025. Vol. 124, article id 103129
Keywords [en]
As-if-Markov prospective reserve, Cantelli's theorem, Contract modifications, Non-linear reserving, Policy lapse
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-368757DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2025.103129ISI: 001521617800001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105008822682OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-368757DiVA, id: diva2:1990791
Note

QC 20250821

Available from: 2025-08-21 Created: 2025-08-21 Last updated: 2025-10-03Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text in DiVA

Other links

Publisher's full textScopus

Authority records

Djehiche, Boualem

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Djehiche, Boualem
By organisation
Probability, Mathematical Physics and Statistics
In the same journal
Insurance, Mathematics & Economics
Probability Theory and Statistics

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
urn-nbn
Total: 22 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf