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Informed Defense: How Attacker Profiles Transform Vulnerability Assessments
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Computer Science, Network and Systems Engineering.
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Computer Science, Network and Systems Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2764-8099
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Computer Science, Network and Systems Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-3922-9606
2025 (English)In: Proceedings of the 2025 IEEE International Conference on Cyber Security and Resilience, CSR 2025, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) , 2025, p. 453-460Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

In the face of an evolving and increasingly complex threat landscape, organizations must adopt proactive approaches to assess and improve the resilience of their IT infrastructures against potential adversaries. Attack graphs are an effective tool to illustrate adversarial actions, but they often fail to capture the decision-making process of adversaries. To address this limitation, we map MITRE techniques to the attack steps in the attack graph and weight attempt probabilities at decision points according to the threat profile of the attacker. Considering a realistic, large IT infrastructure, we analyze how variations in attacker decision-making impact success rates, path diversity, the most frequent paths, and applied techniques. Our findings show that integrating attacker profiles into threat modeling can support accurate identification of the threat landscape and the optimization of defense strategies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) , 2025. p. 453-460
Keywords [en]
adversary profiles, attack graphs, attack simulation, threat modeling
National Category
Control Engineering Computer Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-370758DOI: 10.1109/CSR64739.2025.11130094Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105016165460OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-370758DiVA, id: diva2:2002709
Conference
5th IEEE International Conference on Cyber Security and Resilience, CSR 2025, Chania, Greece, August 4-6, 2025
Note

Part of ISBN 9798331535919

QC 20251001

Available from: 2025-10-01 Created: 2025-10-01 Last updated: 2025-10-01Bibliographically approved

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Naseer, Muhammad ZeshanFodor, ViktóriaEkstedt, Mathias

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