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A Hybrid Prediction Model for Wind–Solar Power Generation with Hyperparameter Optimization and Application in Building Heating Systems
School of Energy and Environmental Engineering, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin 300401, China.
School of Energy and Environmental Engineering, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin 300401, China.
School of Energy and Environmental Engineering, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin 300401, China.
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Sustainable Buildings.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1285-2334
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2025 (English)In: Buildings, E-ISSN 2075-5309, Vol. 15, no 18, article id 3367Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Accurate prediction of photovoltaic and wind power generation is essential for maintaining stable energy supply in integrated energy systems. However, the strong stochasticity and complex fluctuations in these energy sources pose significant challenges to forecasting. Traditional methods often fail to handle the non-stationary characteristics of the generation series effectively. To address this, we propose a novel hybrid prediction framework that integrates variational mode decomposition, the Pearson correlation coefficient, and a benchmark prediction model. Experimental results demonstrate the outstanding performance of the proposed method, achieving an R<sup>2</sup> value exceeding 0.995 along with minimal MAE and RMSE. The approach effectively mitigates hysteresis issues during prediction. Furthermore, the model shows strong adaptability; even when substituting different benchmark models, it maintains an R<sup>2</sup> above 0.99. When applied in a building heating system, accurate predictions help reduce indoor temperature fluctuations, enhance energy supply stability, and lower energy consumption, highlighting its practical value for improving energy efficiency and operational reliability.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
MDPI AG , 2025. Vol. 15, no 18, article id 3367
Keywords [en]
building heating applications, hybrid model, hyperparameter optimization, variational mode decomposition (VMD), wind-solar power prediction
National Category
Energy Engineering Computer Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-371192DOI: 10.3390/buildings15183367ISI: 001580729800001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105017126381OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-371192DiVA, id: diva2:2004211
Note

QC 20251007

Available from: 2025-10-07 Created: 2025-10-07 Last updated: 2025-10-07Bibliographically approved

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Liu, Wei

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CiteExportLink to record
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