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Modeling and Simulating Cyberattacks with the Dynamic Meta Attack Language
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Computer Science, Network and Systems Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6762-3662
Mälardalens Universitet.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7168-599X
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Computer Science, Network and Systems Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-3922-9606
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This work relies on two observations about cyberattacks: they are driven by adversary actions and they frequently change system structures. However, it is difficult to analyze both aspects simultaneously because it involves analyzing complex networks of interactions between adversary actions and target systems. The existing literature has explored attack graph models and cyberattack simulation techniques for analyzing adversary actions and interactions, but not the structural changes that result from these actions. Conversely, dynamic graph methods have emerged for modeling cyberattacks, but not in response to adversary actions. Therefore, this work complements the Dynamic Meta Attack Language (DynaMAL) with a cyberattack simulation process. DynaMAL is a metalanguage for lazily generating attack graphs in response to adversary actions. The simulation process is a discrete-event simulation in which adversary agents perform actions that can yield successor actions or dynamically change the system. The simulation process was validated by simulating three third-party cloud penetration testing exercises that relied on dynamically adding, removing, and re-configuring resources. Then, the resulting models were solved with ant colony optimization and simulated annealing, which achieved optimal or near-optimal results. These results suggested that DynaMAL is a promising step towards modeling and simulating realistic cyberattack dynamics. 

Keywords [en]
cyberattack simulation, dynamic graph, attack graph, graph construction, structural dynamics, lazy generation, metalanguage, threat modeling, agent-based simulation, cloud architecture
National Category
Security, Privacy and Cryptography
Research subject
Computer Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-374601OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-374601DiVA, id: diva2:2023374
Note

Submitted for publication

QC 20251219

Available from: 2025-12-19 Created: 2025-12-19 Last updated: 2025-12-19Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Modeling and Simulating Cyberattacks with Dynamic Graphs: With applications to cloud security assessments
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Modeling and Simulating Cyberattacks with Dynamic Graphs: With applications to cloud security assessments
2026 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This dissertation presents a formalism for exploring two fundamental, yet underrepresented, cyberattack dynamics. Namely, how adversary actions drive the emergence of cyberattacks and how adversaries manipulate dynamic system structures, such as by creating and destroying objects. The formalism in question is encapsulated in the Dynamic Meta Attack Language (DynaMAL), a meta-level formalism for modeling and simulating cyberattacks with dynamic graphs. DynaMAL has been designed and developed in accordance with the design science research framework across four studies. The first study introduces an attack graph construction language for assessing cloud architectures and identifies the central problem of representing attacks in which adversaries manipulate dynamic system structures. The second study is a systematic literature review of cyberattack simulations that identifies key simulation concepts used in later stages of the design process. Building on the two initial studies, the third study establishes the cyberattack modeling foundations of DynaMAL, comprising a dynamic graph system, a multi-layered graph model, a lazy graph generation strategy, and the DynaMAL grammar. Finally, the fourth study develops the corresponding discrete-event simulation process for DynaMAL. The resulting capabilities are evaluated through a first simulation experiment that uses three cloud penetration testing scenarios that rely on dynamically creating and destroying resources. The scenarios are then solved automatically with near-optimal results by combining two search and optimization algorithms.

Abstract [sv]

I den här avhandlingen presenteras en formalism för att utforska två fundamentala men underrepresenterade cyberattackdynamiker. Dessa är hur antagonisters handlingar driver fram cyberattacker och hur antagonister manipulerar dynamiska systemstrukturer, till exempel genom att skapa och förstöra resurser. Formalismen i fråga är inkapslad i ett Dynamic Meta Attack Language (DynaMAL), en formalism på metanivå för att modellera och simulera cyberattacker med dynamiska grafer. DynaMAL:s design och utveckling fortlöper genom fyra studier utförda i enlighet med designforskningsramverket. Den första studien bidrar med ett attackgrafkonstruktionsspråk för att utvärdera molnarkitekturer, vilket utvecklar problematiken med att representera när antagonister manipulerar dynamiska systemstrukturer. Den andra studien är en systematisk litteraturstudie som granskar cyberattacksimuleringsforskning och uppdagar flertalet nyckelkoncept som understödjer de senare designaktiviterna. I den påföljande tredje studien etableras ett fundament för cyberattackmodellering innefattandes ett dynamiskt grafsystem, en lagerbaserad grafmodell, en lat grafgenereringsstrategi och DynaMAL-grammatiken. Den fjärde studien färdigställer DynaMAL-formalismen genom att implementera en motsvarande diskret händelsestyrd simuleringsprocess. De resulterande förmågorna utvärderas via ett första simuleringsexperiment, varvid tre molnpenetrationstestningsscenarion som krävde att resurser dynamiskt skapades eller förstördes används. Scenariona löses sedan automatiskt med nära inpå optimala resultat genom att kombinera två sök- och optimeringsalgoritmer.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2026. p. xxiii, 67
Series
TRITA-EECS-AVL ; 2026:6
Keywords
DynaMAL, attack graph, cyberattack simulation, dynamic graph, adversary-driven, structural dynamics, agent-based, metalanguage, graph construction, computer simulation, threat modeling, cybersecurity, DynaMAL, attackgraf, cyberattacksimulering, dynamisk graf, motståndardriven, strukturell dynamik, agentbaserat, metaspråk, grafkonstruktion, datorsimulering, hotmodellering, cybersäkerhet
National Category
Security, Privacy and Cryptography
Research subject
Computer Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-374603 (URN)978-91-8106-498-8 (ISBN)
Public defence
2026-02-11, F3, Lindstedtsvägen 26, Stockholm, 09:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Note

QC 20251219

Available from: 2025-12-19 Created: 2025-12-19 Last updated: 2026-01-12Bibliographically approved

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https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5462920

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Engström, ViktorEkstedt, Mathias

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