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Speculative futures of artificial intelligence in education: A causal layered analysis of education fiction
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Learning, Digital Learning.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4905-8209
2026 (English)In: Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies, ISSN 0016-3287, E-ISSN 1873-6378, Vol. 176, article id 103762Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This study examines how university stakeholders speculatively imagine futures for artificial intelligence in education (AIED) and the challenges these futures entail. Sixty-nine teachers, students, researchers and PhD candidates from Swedish higher education submitted short speculative scenarios via a bespoke web platform. Using Causal Layered Analysis (CLA), each text was coded across litany, systems, worldview and myth/metaphor layers to surface the assumptions and values underpinning imagined futures. Further analysis yielded four recurring configurations: Enhancement (AI as assistant/partner that personalises learning while keeping human judgement central), Transformation (human-AI fusion and continuous learning ecosystems that reconfigure institutions), Displacement (market logics and automation that deskill educators and render universities credential factories), and Resistance (protective constraints and AI-free spaces to preserve autonomy, authenticity and empathy). Across configurations, three cross-cutting tensions persisted: the human remainder (what stays uniquely human), the assessment paradox (how to evaluate learning amid AI-assisted outputs), and the efficiency-depth trade-off. It is argued that these tensions reflect AIED's character as a wicked problem: they are not resolvable by technical fixes alone, but demand negotiated, value-explicit choices. The findings suggest that debates about AI in education reflect fundamental educational philosophies rather than merely technological capabilities. By documenting diverse stakeholder voices through education fiction, this study provides empirical grounding for understanding AIED as a site of contested imaginaries requiring negotiation between multiple futures. The study contributes methodologically by demonstrating education fiction's value for exploring complex sociotechnical futures and practically by revealing tensions that educators and policymakers must navigate in designing AI-integrated educational systems.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV , 2026. Vol. 176, article id 103762
Keywords [en]
Causal layered analysis, Education fiction, Education futures, Speculative fiction, Wicked problem
National Category
Educational Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-375912DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2026.103762ISI: 001666675600001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105027242229OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-375912DiVA, id: diva2:2032975
Note

QC 20260128

Available from: 2026-01-28 Created: 2026-01-28 Last updated: 2026-01-28Bibliographically approved

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Gidiotis, Iosif

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