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A joint, context-aware neural network-based travel demand and scheduling model
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Transport and Systems Analysis.
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Transport and Systems Analysis.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5290-6101
2026 (English)In: Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, ISSN 0968-090X, E-ISSN 1879-2359, Vol. 184, article id 105512Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Recent advancements in machine learning, and neural networks in particular, have introduced new opportunities for activity-based travel demand modeling and scheduling, providing data-driven alternatives to traditional theory-driven methods. While previous machine learning-based scheduling models have integrated combinations of activity, destination, and mode choice as separate sub-models, none have yet, to the best of our knowledge, unified these components into a single, jointly learned framework.This paper introduces Skyline-NNjoint, a novel fully neural network-based scheduling model that jointly predicts an agent’s activity, destination, and mode choice decisions at each discrete time step throughout the day. To capture substitution effects and interdependencies among alternatives, the model introduces a Global Context Module (GCM) that enables each alternative to adjust its attractiveness based on the context of all others. While similar context-based approaches have been used in other domains, this is, to the best of our knowledge, the first application of such a mechanism in travel demand modeling. This provides a data-driven approach to relax the Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives (IIA) assumption inherent in multinomial logit models. The effectiveness of the GCM is evaluated by comparing Skyline-NNjoint to a baseline version without it, isolating its contribution to model performance.The model is trained on travel survey data from Stockholm and evaluated using both cross-entropy loss and simulated daily activity–travel trajectories. Cross-entropy loss results confirm that the GCM improves predictive performance. Simulation results show that Skyline-NNjoint produces patterns of activity participation, trip timing, and mode choice that closely match observed data. Notably, the model accurately reproduces mode distributions across activity purposes, highlighting its capacity to capture interdependencies in joint decision-making.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV , 2026. Vol. 184, article id 105512
Keywords [en]
Independence of irrelevant alternatives, Joint, Neural networks, Scheduling, Simulation, Travel demand modeling
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics Computer Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-377318DOI: 10.1016/j.trc.2025.105512ISI: 001669668200001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105029733609OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-377318DiVA, id: diva2:2042232
Note

QC 20260227

Available from: 2026-02-27 Created: 2026-02-27 Last updated: 2026-02-27Bibliographically approved

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Fredriksson, JoelKarlström, Anders

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