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The impact of high-speed rail on city government debt financing
School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, 100044, China.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0741-1537
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Real Estate and Construction Management.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5365-5690
School of Management, Shandong University, Shandong, 250100, China.ORCID iD: 0009-0002-4206-1090
School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Central South University, Changsha, 410075, China.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4544-3847
2026 (English)In: Transport Policy, ISSN 0967-070X, E-ISSN 1879-310X, Vol. 181, article id 104086Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

While high-speed rail (HSR) investments in China are largely funded by the central government, their localized benefits often accrue to city governments. To examine how this mismatch shapes city financing behavior, we implement a difference-in-differences (DID) analysis using a comprehensive city–year panel dataset that includes HSR infrastructure, 3.69 billion individual HSR ticket sales records, and detailed information on Chengtou bonds (CTBs) issuance and outstanding balances. We find that HSR operation significantly increases CTBs issuance, with stronger effects associated with HSR passenger flows than with HSR mileage; in cities with higher land prices, greater population density, and higher fiscal openness; and for trunk HSR lines as well as bonds issued by HSR-related entities. However, this effect raises city governments’ debt-to-GDP and debt service ratios, particularly in less developed western regions, heightening local debt risks. These findings highlight the need for coordinated transport and fiscal policies to ensure sustainable infrastructure investments.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV , 2026. Vol. 181, article id 104086
Keywords [en]
China, Debt risk, Government bond, High-speed rail
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-377923DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104086Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105030930289OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-377923DiVA, id: diva2:2045010
Note

QC 20260311

Available from: 2026-03-11 Created: 2026-03-11 Last updated: 2026-03-11Bibliographically approved

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Yang, Zan

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