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A Game-Theoretic Approach to Modeling and Risk Analysis of Interbank Lending Network
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.). College of Future Information Technology, Fudan University, 200433, Shanghai, China.
College of Future Information Technology, Fudan University, 200433, Shanghai, China.
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Probability, Mathematical Physics and Statistics.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6608-0715
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Numerical Analysis, Optimization and Systems Theory.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0177-1993
2026 (English)In: Journal of Systems Science and Complexity, ISSN 1009-6124, E-ISSN 1559-7067, Vol. 39, no 2, p. 649-676Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The interbank market is essential for liquidity allocation but also a major conduit for systemic risk. This paper develops a dynamic network game that models how financial institutions, acting as borrowers, lenders, or intermediaries, form and adjust bilateral exposures while optimizing liquidity decisions subject to balance-sheet and trust. The equilibrium structure of the lending network is characterized through a dynamic game-theoretic analysis based on best response dynamics and fixed-point conditions, showing how strategic complementarities and balance-sheet feedback generate stable configurations. Building on this framework, the authors analyze how exogenous shocks propagate through the network using a control-theoretic formulation. For asymptotically stable equilibria, the authors give an upper bound for the peak deviation following such a shock. In unstable scenarios, the authors establish sufficient conditions for structural stabilizability using policy interventions. Finally, a constructed case study simulates the dynamic generation of the endogenous equilibrium.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Nature , 2026. Vol. 39, no 2, p. 649-676
Keywords [en]
Dynamic network, game theory, interbank lending, stability, systemic risk
National Category
Economics Business Administration
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-382011DOI: 10.1007/s11424-026-5613-xISI: 001752193800002Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105036841427OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-382011DiVA, id: diva2:2062026
Note

QC 20260525

Available from: 2026-05-25 Created: 2026-05-25 Last updated: 2026-05-25Bibliographically approved

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Yao, YuhuaDjehiche, BoualemHu, Xiaoming

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Mathematics (Dept.)Probability, Mathematical Physics and StatisticsNumerical Analysis, Optimization and Systems Theory
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