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The shortest and strongest triviality proof - ever?
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Philosophy and History.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9934-3833
2025 (English)In: Analysis, ISSN 0003-2638, E-ISSN 1467-8284, Vol. 86, no 2, p. 283-289, article id anae054Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

It is shown that two simple principles N and P concerning probabilities of conditionals can be combined with the standard ratio analysis of conditional probability only at the expense of complete triviality: no measure that satisfies all three can assign any proposition a non-trivial probability (probability greater than 0 and less than 1). The proof of this is trivial. Moreover, N and P are shown to follow from the Ramsey Test, Import-Export, Reflexivity and a weak principle of suppositional consistency (entailed by the ratio analysis), as well as from considerably weaker plausible properties. Together the results constitute a triviality result with a very strong conclusion from very weak premises, with a trivial proof. It sharpens the question: which principle is to blame?

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Oxford University Press (OUP) , 2025. Vol. 86, no 2, p. 283-289, article id anae054
Keywords [en]
probability of conditionals, conditional probability, triviality proof, Ramsey Test, strict conditionals, preservation condition
National Category
Philosophy
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-385086DOI: 10.1093/analys/anae054ISI: 001758279500001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-385086DiVA, id: diva2:2085133
Note

QC 20260707

Available from: 2026-07-07 Created: 2026-07-07 Last updated: 2026-08-14Bibliographically approved

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Cantwell, John

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