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Causal Discovery from Conditionally Stationary Time Series
Imperial College London, UK, United Kingdom.
Imperial College London, UK, United Kingdom.
University of Dundee, UK, United Kingdom.
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Intelligent systems, Speech, Music and Hearing, TMH.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1356-9653
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2025 (English)In: Proceedings of Machine Learning Research - International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML 2025, ML Research Press , 2025, Vol. 267, p. 2715-2741Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Causal discovery, i.e., inferring underlying causal relationships from observational data, is highly challenging for AI systems. In a time series modeling context, traditional causal discovery methods mainly consider constrained scenarios with fully observed variables and/or data from stationary time-series. We develop a causal discovery approach to handle a wide class of nonstationary time series that are conditionally stationary, where the nonstationary behaviour is modeled as stationarity conditioned on a set of latent state variables. Named State-Dependent Causal Inference (SDCI), our approach is able to recover the underlying causal dependencies, with provable identifiablity for the state-dependent causal structures. Empirical experiments on nonlinear particle interaction data and gene regulatory networks demonstrate SDCI’s superior performance over baseline causal discovery methods. Improved results over non-causal RNNs on modeling NBA player movements demonstrate the potential of our method and motivate the use of causality-driven methods for forecasting.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
ML Research Press , 2025. Vol. 267, p. 2715-2741
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-385512Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105023641342OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-385512DiVA, id: diva2:2086567
Conference
42nd International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML 2025, Vancouver, Canada, Jul 13 2025 - Jul 19 2025
Note

QC 20260715

Available from: 2026-07-15 Created: 2026-07-15 Last updated: 2026-07-15Bibliographically approved

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Tu, RuiboKjellström, Hedvig

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf