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A novel hybrid dual-stream deep learning architecture integrating multi-state LSTM, CNN, and multi-head self-attention for water level and discharge prediction (Missouri River Basin, USA)
Univ Tehran, Dept Geomat Engn, Tehran, Iran.
San Jose State Univ, Dept Civil Engn, San Jose, CA USA.
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering, Water and Environmental Engineering. Stockholm Univ, Dept Phys Geog, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9408-4425
Lund Univ, Fac Engn LTH, Div Water Resources Engn TVRL, Lund, Sweden; Lund Univ, United Nations Univ Hub Water Changing Environm WI, United Nations Univ Inst Water Environm & Hlth UNU, Lund, Sweden.
2026 (English)In: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, E-ISSN 2214-5818, Vol. 65, article id 103523Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Study region: The Missouri River Basin, located between the states of Nebraska and Iowa, USA. Study focus: Water level (WL) and discharge (Q) are key hydrological variables, accurate prediction of which in both long-term and short-term (extreme events) scenarios is essential for water resources and flood risk management. We propose a novel hybrid deep learning architecture, CNN-NLSTM-SA, which integrates a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) branch for extracting local features and a Multi-State LSTM (NLSTM) branch for capturing long-term temporal dependencies. NLSTM, with its child-parent structure, enhances memory propagation and mitigates vanishing and exploding gradients. The outputs of these two branches are fused through a multi-head Self-Attention (SA) mechanism, enabling the model to automatically emphasize the most informative representations. New hydrological insight: The proposed model is evaluated for both long-term and short-term forecasting scales. The long-term scenario leverages extensive historical data to provide a large set of training data, whereas the short-term scenario focuses on extreme events with limited training samples. To mimic real-world operational challenges in poorly gauged or data-scarce basins, the model is also tested under varying station-availability conditions using a Leave-n-Station-Out (LnSO) validation strategy. An ablation study comparing CNN-NLSTM-SA with several single-and dual-branch alternatives (CNN-LSTM-SA, LSTM-SA, CNN-SA, CNN-LSTM) shows the superior performance of the proposed architecture. Overall, CNN-NLSTM-SA demonstrates strong potential for WL and Q prediction in both data-rich and data-limited environments.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV , 2026. Vol. 65, article id 103523
Keywords [en]
Environmental Modelling, Hydrology, Deep Learning, Artificial Intelligence, Water Resources Management
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-386018DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103523ISI: 001768919700001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105038423248OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-386018DiVA, id: diva2:2087946
Note

QC 20260723

Available from: 2026-07-23 Created: 2026-07-23 Last updated: 2026-07-23Bibliographically approved

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