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How Circular is the Linear Economy?: Analysing Circularity, Resource Flows and Their Relation to GDP
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Production Engineering, Manufacturing and metrology systems.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5960-2159
2026 (English)In: Journal of Circular Economy, ISSN 2752-163X, Vol. 4, no 1, p. 442-453Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The concept of Circular Economy (CE) has evolved rapidly over the past decade, yet its macroeconomic interpretation remains constrained by narrow, recycling-centric definitions of circularity which ignores highervalue strategies like maintenance, repair, refurbishment, and remanufacturing enabling prolonged use and reuse of assets. This study critically examines prevailing circularity metrics, particularly the "circular material use rate" often used as a measure of "circularity" and explores how global resource flows and stocks relate to economic value creation, expressed as gross domestic product (GDP). Using a mixed methods approach that combines global material flow data with macroeconomic analysis, the study shows that while the commonly reported circularity rate is about 9%, correcting for non-recoverable materials reveals a "real" circularity of approximately 27%. However, even this higher circularity corresponds to only about 1.4% of global GDP, underscoring the limited economic impact of recycling-centric approaches. The analysis further demonstrates that nearly two-thirds of GDP is generated through the use and management of existing material stocks and assets, practices that already align with core circular economy principles. The study thus proposes an essential change in the assessment framework that: (a) replaces annual input-based metrics with economic value creation as the primary indicator, (b) integrates stock utilization efficiency as a core circularity measure and

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
DSRPT GbR , 2026. Vol. 4, no 1, p. 442-453
Keywords [en]
Economy, Circular Economy, Circularity, Circularity Rate, GDP, Material Flows, Stocks
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-386503DOI: 10.55845/joce-2026-4179ISI: 001786761300001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-386503DiVA, id: diva2:2090025
Note

QC 20260805

Available from: 2026-08-05 Created: 2026-08-05 Last updated: 2026-08-05Bibliographically approved

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Rashid, Amir

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
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  • Other style
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  • de-DE
  • en-GB
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