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The Illusion of Improvement: Reject Inference Strategies in Credit Scoring
Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA, United States.
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Theoretical Computer Science.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-3208-9778
2027 (English)In: Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases. Research Track - European Conference, ECML PKDD 2026, Proceedings, Springer Nature , 2027, Vol. 16941 LNAI, p. 462-479Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Reject inference methods are widely used to mitigate survival bias in credit scoring, yet their effectiveness remains poorly understood. We systematically evaluate several such methods and uncover a structural failure mode: in a natural retraining cycle, models whose accuracy improves while recall collapses create an illusion of improvement that leads practitioners to believe the system is getting better when, in fact, its rejection quality—the ability to correctly screen out defaulters—is deteriorating. We then propose a controlled exploration strategy that breaks the feedback loop without statistical assumptions: the lender deliberately approves a fraction of rejected applicants and observes their true outcomes. We show that accuracy and rejection quality give opposite recommendations on whether to explore: accuracy favors no exploration, while rejection quality improves with it, confirming that standard evaluation metrics are misleading under selection bias. Even minimal exploration rates (2–5%) prove sufficient in our experiments to diagnose the severity of the feedback loop at near-zero cost. Our findings are consistent across two machine learning methods and three real-world datasets, and suggest that standard evaluation protocols are inadequate for assessing models trained under survival bias.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Nature , 2027. Vol. 16941 LNAI, p. 462-479
National Category
Other Computer and Information Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-389887DOI: 10.1007/978-3-032-37654-1_27Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105050263066OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-389887DiVA, id: diva2:2106910
Conference
European Conference on Machine Learning and Principles and Practice of Knowledge Discovery in Databases, ECML PKDD 2026, Naples, Italy, September 7-11, 2026
Note

Part of ISBN 9783032376534

QC 20261001

Available from: 2026-10-01 Created: 2026-10-01 Last updated: 2026-10-01Bibliographically approved

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Baeza-Yates, Ricardo

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
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Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf