A combined fuzzy gmdh neural network and grey wolf optimization application for wind turbine power production forecasting considering scada data Show others and affiliations
2021 (English) In: Energies, E-ISSN 1996-1073, Vol. 14, no 12, article id 3459Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]
A cost-effective and efficient wind energy production trend leads to larger wind turbine generators and drive for more advanced forecast models to increase their accuracy. This paper proposes a combined forecasting model that consists of empirical mode decomposition, fuzzy group method of data handling neural network, and grey wolf optimization algorithm. A combined K-means and identifying density-based local outliers is applied to detect and clean the outliers of the raw supervisory control and data acquisition data in the proposed forecasting model. Moreover, the empirical mode decomposition is employed to decompose signals and pre-processing data. The fuzzy GMDH neural network is a forecaster engine to estimate the future amount of wind turbines energy production, where the grey wolf optimization is used to optimize the fuzzy GMDH neural network parameters in order to achieve a lower forecasting error. Moreover, the model has been applied using actual data from a pilot onshore wind farm in Sweden. The obtained results indicate that the proposed model has a higher accuracy than others in the literature and provides single and combined forecasting models in different time-steps ahead and seasons.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages MDPI AG , 2021. Vol. 14, no 12, article id 3459
Keywords [en]
Fuzzy GMDH neural network, Grey wolf optimization, Power system, SCADA data, Wind power production, Cost effectiveness, Data acquisition, Data handling, Digital storage, Forecasting, Fuzzy inference, Fuzzy logic, Fuzzy sets, Onshore wind farms, Signal processing, Statistics, Wind turbines, Combined forecasting, Different time steps, Empirical Mode Decomposition, Forecasting modeling, GMDH neural network, Optimization algorithms, Supervisory control and data acquisition, Wind energy production, Fuzzy neural networks
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Identifiers URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-309941 DOI: 10.3390/en14123459 ISI: 000666210700001 Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85108362504 OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-309941 DiVA, id: diva2:1645912
Note QC 20220321
2022-03-212022-03-212023-08-28 Bibliographically approved