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Modeling aspects of reliability-based design of lined rock caverns
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Soil and Rock Mechanics.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7643-7274
2022 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The storage of large quantities of hydrogen gas in underground lined rock caverns (LRCs) could contribute to an efficient supply of fossil-free energy. The consequences of failure of such storage can be catastrophic, so representative predictive models and a small probability of failure are needed for the LRC design. However, the available predictive models are simplified. On top of that, the calculation of a small probability of failure is challenging on its own, and becomes more difficult when combined with representative numerical models, which are often computationally demanding.

The purpose of this thesis is to develop a reliability-based design tool for LRC gas storages to ensure that societal safety requirements are met. For the development of this LRC design tool, the research issues are related to the prediction of the rock cavern response to a high internal gas pressure; interaction between LRC components; suitability of reliability-based calculation methods for the LRC design; and, effect of uncertainties on the probability of failure of the LRC design.

The results show that the available analytical model to predict the rock cavern response is only applicable for idealized geological conditions and geometries, so numerical models are needed. Finite element (FE) models are therefore developed to account for the complex interaction between LRC components, including the influence of opening of discrete rock joints on the strain concentrations in the steel lining. The adaptive directional importance sampling (ADIS) method is identified to be suitable to perform reliability-based analysis with FE models, requiring only a small number of samples for sufficiently accurate estimations of small probabilities of failure. The structural reliability of the LRC design is found to be sensitive to the rock mass quality and the correlation between geological properties.

Abstract [sv]

Lagring av stora mängder vätgas i underjordiska inklädda bergrum (LRC)skulle kunna bidra till en effektiv försörjning av fossilfri energi. Konsekvenserna av läckage i sådana lager kan vara katastrofala, så braberäkningsmodeller behövs för att kunna verifiera att brottsannolikheten i LRC är tillräckligt liten. De tillgängliga beräkningsmodellerna är dock förenklade. Dessutom är beräkningen av små brottsannolikheter utmanande i sig och blir ännu svårare i kombination med representativa numeriska modeller, eftersom sådana modeller kräver långa beräkningstider.

Syftet med denna doktorsavhandling är att utveckla ett sannlikhetsbaserat designverktyg för att uppfylla de säkerhets krav som ställs vid lagring av trycksatt gas i LRC. De specifika forskningsfrågorna är relaterade till modellerandet av bergrummets mekaniska beteende; interaktionen mellan LRC-komponenter; lämpligheten av sannolikhetsbaserade beräkningsmetoder för LRC-designen; samt effekten av osäkerheter på sannolikheten för brott i LRC-designen.

Resultaten visar att den befintliga analytiska modellen för att modellera bergrummets beteende endast är tillämpbar för idealiserade geologiska förhållanden och geometrier, vilket indikerar att numeriska modeller behövs. Sådana modeller har därför utvecklats för att ta hänsyn tilli nteraktionen mellan LRC-komponenter, vilka beaktar hur öppning av bergssprickor påverkar stålinklädnadens töjning. Den adaptiva riktade viktningssamplingsmetoden (ADIS) har identifierats vara lämplig för att utföra sannolikhetsbaserade analyser med FE-modellerna, eftersom ADIS kan ge tillräckligt exakta uppskattningar av små brottsannolikheter trots få körningar av den numeriska modellen. Brottsannolikhetsberäkningarna har visat sig vara känsliga för främst bergmassans kvalitet och korrelationen mellan geologiska egenskaper.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2022. , p. 85
Series
TRITA-ABE-DLT ; 2242
Keywords [en]
Lined rock cavern, reliability-based design, analytical modeling, finite element modeling, underground gas storage
Keywords [sv]
Inklädda bergrum, tillförlitlighetsbaserad design, analytisk modellering, finita elementmodellering, underjordisk gaslagring
National Category
Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology
Research subject
Civil and Architectural Engineering, Soil and Rock Mechanics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-321073ISBN: 978-91-8040-404-4 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-321073DiVA, id: diva2:1708698
Public defence
2022-12-02, D2, Lindstedtsvägen 9, KTH Campus, https://kth-se.zoom.us/j/64410297205, Stockholm, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
Swedish Energy Agency, 42684-2 and P2022-00209
Note

QC 221110

Available from: 2022-11-10 Created: 2022-11-04 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Rock mass response for lined rock caverns subjected to high internal gas pressure
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Rock mass response for lined rock caverns subjected to high internal gas pressure
2023 (English)In: Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering, ISSN 1674-7755, Vol. 15, no 1, p. 119-129Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The storage of hydrogen gas in underground lined rock caverns (LRCs) enables the implementation of the first fossil-free steelmaking process to meet the large demand for crude steel. Predicting the response of rock mass is important to ensure that gas leakage due to rupture of the steel lining does not occur. Analytical and numerical models can be used to estimate the rock mass response to high internal pressure; however, the fitness of these models under different in situ stress conditions and cavern shapes has not been studied. In this paper, the suitability of analytical and numerical models to estimate the maximum cavern wall tangential strain under high internal pressure is studied. The analytical model is derived in detail and finite element (FE) models considering both two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) geometries are presented. These models are verified with field measurements from the LRC in Skallen, southwestern Sweden. The analytical model is inexpensive to implement and gives good results for isotropic in situ stress conditions and large cavern heights. For the case of anisotropic horizontal in situ stresses, as the conditions in Skallen, the 3D FE model is the best approach.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV, 2023
Keywords
Lined rock caverns (LRCs); High pressure; Rock mass response; In situ stress condition; Cavern shape; Gas storage
National Category
Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-321064 (URN)10.1016/j.jrmge.2022.03.006 (DOI)000950190300005 ()2-s2.0-85129034434 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Swedish Energy Agency, 42684–2
Note

QC 20230118

Available from: 2022-11-04 Created: 2022-11-04 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved
2. Effect of rock joints on lined rock caverns subjected to high internal gas pressure
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Effect of rock joints on lined rock caverns subjected to high internal gas pressure
2023 (English)In: Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering, ISSN 1674-7755, Vol. 15, no 7, p. 1625-1635Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The storage of hydrogen gas in lined rock caverns (LRCs) may enable the implementation of the first large-scale fossil-free steelmaking process in Sweden, but filling such storage causes joints in the rock mass to open, concentrating strains in the lining. The structural interaction between the LRC components must be able to reduce the strain concentration in the sealing steel lining; however, this interaction is complex and difficult to predict with analytical methods. In this paper, the strain concentration in LRCs from the opening of rock joints is studied using finite element (FE) analyses, where the large- and small-scale behaviors of the LRC are coupled. The model also includes concrete crack initiation and development with increasing gas pressure and rock joint width. The interaction between the jointed rock mass and the reinforced concrete, the sliding layer, and the steel lining is demonstrated. The results show that the rock mass quality and the spacing of the rock joints have the greatest influence on the strain distributions in the steel lining. The largest effect of rock joints on the maximum strains in the steel lining was observed for geological conditions of “good” quality rock masses.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV, 2023
Keywords
lined rock cavern (LRC); rock joints; strain concentrations; lining interaction; finite element (FE) analysis; high gas pressure
National Category
Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-321070 (URN)10.1016/j.jrmge.2022.11.011 (DOI)001070902700001 ()2-s2.0-85148760247 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Swedish Energy Agency, 42684-2 and P2022-00209
Note

QC 20230612

Available from: 2022-11-04 Created: 2022-11-04 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved
3. Efficiency of subset simulation in the design of lined rock caverns for storage of hydrogen gas
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Efficiency of subset simulation in the design of lined rock caverns for storage of hydrogen gas
2019 (English)In: Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, Seoul, South Korea, 2019, article id 124Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Efforts to substitute the use of fossil fuels in industry by hydrogen gas requires the storage of large volumes of gas with a reliable pressure vessel design. The Hydrogen Breakthrough Ironmaking Technology (HYBRIT) initiative aims to make the whole steel making process in Sweden fossil-free with the storage of industrial scale quantities of hydrogen in underground Lined Rock Cavers (LRCs). The LRC concept is a relatively new design methodology that can be further developed with respect to safety and economic efficiency and reliability-based design methods provide one option to comply with codes and regulations. High reliability is required for the storage of hydrogen gas and the computational time becomes unpractical for the evaluation of a complex system such as the LRC. In this paper, the efficiency of Subset Simulation (SuS) regarding accuracy, precision and required number of samples is studied for the calculation of probability of failure against fatigue of the steel lining. It can be observed that by increasing the number of samples per level and increasing the conditional probability of failure the precision increases as well as the total number of samples. The accuracy of the SuS is checked with respect to Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) showing good agreement and with greater precision for fewer number of samples. A case study is performed for the geologic conditions of Sweden showing that the considered failure mode is unlikely for high stresses and good rock mass quality.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Seoul, South Korea: , 2019
Keywords
Lined Rock Cavern, Subset Simulation, Reliability based design, Hydrogen gas storage
National Category
Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology
Research subject
Civil and Architectural Engineering, Soil and Rock Mechanics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-259897 (URN)10.22725/ICASP13.124 (DOI)2-s2.0-85126503993 (Scopus ID)
Conference
13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP 2019, Seoul, South Korea, 26 May 2019 through 30 May 2019
Projects
HYBRIT
Note

Part of proceedings

QC 20210915

Available from: 2019-09-23 Created: 2019-09-23 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved
4. Reliability-based design methodology for lined rock cavern depth using the response surface method
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Reliability-based design methodology for lined rock cavern depth using the response surface method
2020 (English)In: ISRM International Symposium - EUROCK 2020, International Society for Rock Mechanics , 2020Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Efforts to decrease CO2 emissions in the Swedish steelmaking process involve the use of industrial quantities of hydrogen gas supplied from large-scale Lined Rock Cavern (LRC) storages in order to eliminate the use of fossil fuels. This storage must be placed at sufficient depth so that the overburden is able to resist the uplifting gas pressure from inside the cavern. Both the high reliability requirement and addressing the uncertainties related to the rock mass properties make it difficult to design for such structures. In this work, a reliability-based design methodology for the LRC depth specification using the Response surface (RS) method is presented. Geologic conditions of Sweden, i.e. hard rock, are considered and the analytical solution for the resistance to uplift includes the tensile strength of the failure surface in addition to the overburden weight pressure. The highest uncertainties are assumed to be related to the rock mass parameters and both the cavern radius and the maximum operational pressure are chosen to be the same as for the LRC in Skallen, in southwestern Sweden. Four random variables with varying correlation are used to estimate the acceptable cavern depth and the results are reasonable compared to previous experience. The efficiency of the RS method for the considered problem is observed both for required number of samples and accuracy, showing suitability to be used with more complex, difficult to evaluate, problems such as Finite Element models.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
International Society for Rock Mechanics, 2020
Keywords
HYBRIT fossil-free steel, Hydrogen gas storage, Lined Rock Cavern, Response surface method, Uplift, Caves, Fossil fuels, Gas emissions, Hydrogen fuels, Industrial emissions, Reliability, Rock mechanics, Rocks, Surface properties, Tensile strength, Geologic conditions, Lined rock cavern (LRC), Maximum operational pressures, Reliability based design, Rock mass parameters, Rock mass properties, Varying-correlations, Design
National Category
Environmental Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-290834 (URN)2-s2.0-85097596224 (Scopus ID)
Conference
ISRM International Symposium - EUROCK 2020, 14 June 2020 through 19 June 2020
Note

Part of proceedings: ISBN 978-82-8208-072-9, QC 20221107

Available from: 2021-03-23 Created: 2021-03-23 Last updated: 2022-11-14Bibliographically approved
5. Reliability-based design tool for gas storage in lined rock caverns
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Reliability-based design tool for gas storage in lined rock caverns
2024 (English)In: Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards, ISSN 1749-9518, E-ISSN 1749-9526, Vol. 18, p. 410-422Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The transition to a fossil-free energy matrix may require large quantities of hydrogen gas, which could be stored efficiently in an underground lined rock cavern (LRC). Since the consequences of failure can be catastrophic, the LRC design needs to have a small probability of failure. However, the current design practice for LRCs is deterministic, which limits the possibility to stringently address geotechnical uncertainties in the design. In this paper, a reliability-based design tool is presented for LRCs. The adaptive directional importance sampling (ADIS) method, which requires a relatively small number of samples, is used with a 3D finite element (FE) model to evaluate small probabilities of failure. An illustrative example based on the LRC in Skallen, southwestern Sweden, demonstrates the implementation and applicability of the developed design tool. The considered uncertainties are related to the geological conditions and the steel lining. The results show that the reliability of this LRC design meets the expected safety requirements. Considering different geological conditions with correlations, at least “good” quality rock mass is needed for the LRC design. An additional sensitivity analysis is performed to study the potential influence of corrosion and hydrogen embrittlement on the reduction of the LRC design reliability.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Informa UK Limited, 2024
Keywords
lined rock cavern (LRC); reliability-based analysis; adaptive directional importance sampling (ADIS); finite element (FE) analysis; gas storage
National Category
Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-321071 (URN)10.1080/17499518.2023.2188467 (DOI)000948832700001 ()2-s2.0-85150737373 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Swedish Energy Agency, P2022-00209
Note

QC 20240610

Available from: 2022-11-04 Created: 2022-11-04 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved

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