The possibility to perform advanced forming operations of initially plane paperboard paves the way to making products like food trays, plates, cups and other containers as a part of shifting towards a circular bioeconomy. As a part of the ongoing efforts of expanding the product range using paperboard, we performed analyses of the forming operation using simulations. An implicit non-linear finite element model is built to more accurately than previous studies simulate the tray forming process of paperboard. Two different commercial paperboards are investigated. The use of an implicit solver enabled the inclusion of the creasing pattern into the geometry of the paperboard blank resolving the formation of wrinkles during forming. The material data is extracted from tensile test curves of the investigated paperboards and was fitted accurately using Hill's plasticity with difference in tension and compression accounted for with subsequent failure evaluation. The results showed that the inclusion of the creases in the geometry is vital for getting a correct shape of the formed tray and important for decreasing the risk of failure. The results also showed that friction has a big impact on the formed shape and hence on the stress levels, and therefore supports the means of lowering friction between the blank holder and the blank during the tray forming operation. A stochastic approach is proposed to determine the probability of failure for the boards. The performed failure evaluation is consistent with the field observations. The developed approach enables more precise simulations of paperboard tray forming.