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Identifying regional hotspots of heatwaves, droughts, floods, and their co-occurrences
KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik.ORCID-id: 0000-0002-3111-4583
KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik.
KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Vatten- och miljöteknik.ORCID-id: 0000-0001-9408-4425
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2024 (engelsk)Inngår i: Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment (Print), ISSN 1436-3240, E-ISSN 1436-3259, Vol. 38, nr 10, s. 3875-3893Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
Abstract [en]

In this paper we present a framework to aid in the selection of optimal environmental indicators for detecting and mapping extreme events and analyzing trends in heatwaves, meteorological and hydrological droughts, floods, and their compound occurrence. The framework uses temperature, precipitation, river discharge, and derived climate indices to characterize the spatial distribution of hazard intensity, frequency, duration, co-occurrence, and dependence. The relevant climate indices applied are Standardized Precipitation Index, Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Standardized Streamflow Index, heatwave indices based on fixed (HWI $$_\textrm{S}$$ S ) and anomalous temperatures (HWI $$_\textrm{E}$$ E ), and Daily Flood Index (DFI). We selected suitable environmental indicators and corresponding thresholds for each hazard based on estimated extreme event detection performance using receiver operating characteristics (ROC), area under curve (AUC), and accuracy, which is defined as the proportion of correct detections. We assessed compound hazard dependence using a Likelihood Multiplication Factor (LMF). We tested the framework for the case of Sweden, using daily data for the period 1922–2021. The ROC results showed that HWI $$_\textrm{S}$$ S , SPEI12 and DFI are suitable indices for representing heatwaves, droughts, and floods, respectively (AUC > 0.83). Application of these indices revealed increasing heatwave and flood occurrence in large areas of Sweden, but no significant change trend for droughts. Hotspots with LMF > 1, mostly concentrated in Northern Sweden from June to August, indicated that compound drought-heatwave and drought-flood events are positively correlated in those areas, which can exacerbate their impacts. The novel framework presented here adds to existing hydroclimatic hazard research by (1) using local data and historical records of extremes to validate indicator-based hazard hotspots, (2) evaluating compound hazards at regional scale, (3) being transferable and streamlined, (4) attaining satisfactory performance for indicator-based hazard detection as demonstrated by the ROC method, and (5) being generalizable to various hazard types.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
Springer Nature , 2024. Vol. 38, nr 10, s. 3875-3893
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Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-351263DOI: 10.1007/s00477-024-02783-3ISI: 001280829300002Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85200040846OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-351263DiVA, id: diva2:1886795
Forskningsfinansiär
Swedish Research Council FormasSwedish Research Council, 2021-06309Swedish Research Council, 2021-06309Swedish Research Council, 2022-04672Swedish Research Council, 2021-06309Swedish Research Council, 2021-06309KTH Royal Institute of Technology
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QC 20240815

Tilgjengelig fra: 2024-08-05 Laget: 2024-08-05 Sist oppdatert: 2025-03-20bibliografisk kontrollert

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Passos, Marlon VieiraKan, Jung-ChingDestouni, GeorgiaKalantari, Zahra

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