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Forecasting electricity prices for intraday markets using machine learning
School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Peloponnese, Patras, Greece.
KTH, Skolan för elektroteknik och datavetenskap (EECS).
KTH, Skolan för elektroteknik och datavetenskap (EECS), Elektroteknik, Elkraftteknik.ORCID-id: 0000-0001-6000-9363
2024 (engelsk)Konferansepaper, Publicerat paper (Annet vitenskapelig)
Abstract [en]

This paper studies the problem of forecasting electricity prices in continuous short-term electricity markets, specifically focusing on the intraday volume-weighted average price of hourly products in the last three hours of trading. Two state-of-the-art recurrent neural network architectures, namely the Temporal Fusion Transformer and the DeepAR network, are compared against well-established statistical models, such as the Linear Regression-LR, ARX, and SARIMAX models, concerning their forecast accuracy. Historical electricity market and grid data from European Energy Exchanges were used to create a forecasting dataset and train and compare five different model structures stemming from traditional statistical methods or contemporary deep learning-based counterparts.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
Institution of Engineering and Technology (IET) , 2024. s. 13-18
Emneord [en]
Electricity trading, intraday market, machine learning, price forecasting
HSV kategori
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-362690DOI: 10.1049/icp.2024.4630Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105002477017OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-362690DiVA, id: diva2:1954132
Konferanse
14th Mediterranean Conference on Power Generation Transmission, Distribution and Energy Conversion, MEDPOWER 2024, Athens, Greece, November 3-6, 2024
Merknad

QC 20250428

Tilgjengelig fra: 2025-04-23 Laget: 2025-04-23 Sist oppdatert: 2025-06-03bibliografisk kontrollert

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Kotsias, Panagiotis-ChristosAmelin, Mikael

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