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Interpretable long-horizon air pollution forecasting using a transformer-based framework
KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Byggvetenskap, Transportplanering.ORCID-id: 0009-0001-1295-1917
KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Byggvetenskap, Transportplanering. KTH, Skolan för elektroteknik och datavetenskap (EECS), Centra, Digital futures.ORCID-id: 0000-0001-5526-4511
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden.ORCID-id: 0000-0002-4695-1106
SLB-analys, Environment and Health Administration, City of Stockholm, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID-id: 0000-0001-7889-1964
Vise andre og tillknytning
2026 (engelsk)Inngår i: Expert Systems with Applications, ISSN 0957-4174, Vol. 315, artikkel-id 131719Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
Abstract [en]

Accurate and interpretable air pollution forecasting is essential for public health and proactive intervention. While deep learning models have achieved strong performance in long-horizon forecasting, they often require aligned historical sequences and provide limited interpretability. To address these limitations, we propose a novel Transformer-based framework that integrates historical observations with auxiliary forecasts to enhance predictive performance while providing built-in interpretability. The framework introduces two core components: a Structured Temporal Embedding Module (STEM) for preserving the semantic integrity of heterogeneous inputs, and an eXplainable Target-Oriented Cross-Attention (X2-Attention) mechanism that aligns future predictions with known inputs to yield fine-grained attribution for each forecasted timestep across both temporal and feature dimensions. Evaluated on diverse urban and suburban datasets in Stockholm, our model simultaneously delivers reliable interpretability and superior predictive accuracy. Compared to five baselines (TimeXer, Crossformer, iTransformer, Transformer and LSTM), it exhibits significantly lower Mean Squared Error (MSE) for NOX and competitive performance for PM10 across horizons up to 720 hours. Ablation studies reveal that incorporating auxiliary forecasts reduces MSE by 29 % for NOX and 15 % for PM10. Moreover, the X2-Attention mechanism generates plausible feature attribution validated through perturbation analysis. Its attributions are consistent with GradientSHAP while avoiding prohibitive computational overhead, thereby facilitating efficient air quality forecasting.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
Elsevier BV , 2026. Vol. 315, artikkel-id 131719
Emneord [en]
Air quality and health risk, Explainable AI, Meteorological forecast integration, Multi-horizon forecasting
HSV kategori
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-380039DOI: 10.1016/j.eswa.2026.131719ISI: 001707123300001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105034518146OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-380039DiVA, id: diva2:2055474
Merknad

QC 20260424

Tilgjengelig fra: 2026-04-24 Laget: 2026-04-24 Sist oppdatert: 2026-04-30bibliografisk kontrollert

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Zhang, ZhiguoMa, Xiaoliang

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Zhang, ZhiguoMa, XiaoliangEngardt, MagnuzSchlesinger, DanielJohansson, Christer
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