In the coming decades, demand for electricity will increase considerably on the African continent. Investment in power generation, transmission and distribution is necessary to meet this demand. In this paper a cost-optimization tool is used to assess investment opportunities under varying scenarios of GDP growth, electricity trade and CO2 taxation. Business as usual fuel price outlooks are assumed, and related assumptions are relatively conservative. The goal is to find if there are economic indications that renewable energy might play a significant role in the expansion of the African electricity system. The results show that there is potential of renewable energy (RE) resources to have a significant share in the generation mix. By 2030, 42% and 55% of the total generation is powered by renewables in the high and low GDP scenarios respectively. Promotion of interregional trade can assist in unlocking RE potential across the continent, such as hydro in Central Africa and wind in East Africa; these regions are projected to be net exporters of electricity. Additionally, generation by off-grid technologies increases over time, reaching 12% of the total generation by 2030 in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Africa is a resource-rich continent but lacks the required power infrastructure. Efforts such as the United Nations Sustainable Energy for All and U.S. President Obama's Power Africa initiatives aim to facilitate much needed investment. However, no systematic national and regional investment outlook is available to analysts. This paper examines indicative scenarios of power plant investments based on potential for electricity trade. OSeMOSYS, a cost-optimization tool for long-term energy planning, is used to develop least cost system configurations. The electricity supply systems of forty-seven countries are modelled individually and linked via trade links to form TEMBA (The Electricity Model Base for Africa). A scenario comparison up to 2040 shows that an enhanced grid network can alter Africa's generation mix and reduce electricity generation cost. The insights have important investment, trade and policy implications, as specific projects can be identified as of major significance, and thus receive political support and funding.

The vision of harnessing the Congo River's immense flow to generate power for the African continent has existed in the agenda of energy planners and politicians for nearly a century. However after the installations of Inga I in 1972 and Inga II in 1982, progress came to a standstill. Recently though the larger aspirations of Grand Inga seem to be moving forward again. Construction of Inga III low-head is set to commence in 2015 with a projected capacity of 4755MW, of which 2500MW are contracted for the South African market. Upon completion, the total capacity of Grand Inga could reach 42GW. In this paper, we present scenario-driven results of a Sub-Saharan African-focused partial-equilibrium energy model related to the further development of the project. The analysis is presented to show the broad range of possible energy futures related to this project, without taking into deep consideration the admittedly important issues related to governance, environmental impacts or social tensions. Scenarios are developed to assess the energy outlook of the Central African power pool, in which Grand Inga is located, and the exchange of electricity between regions when the project is completed. The project has the potential to cover the increasing needs for power in this power pool and provide electricity exports to other regions; primarily Southern and Western Africa in a high demand scenario and Southern and Northern Africa in a low demand scenario.

The proposed Grand Inga project could reach a total generating capacity of 42 GW, making it the biggest hydropower plant in the world. The scale of the proposed project is immense in comparison to numerous national power systems in Sub-Saharan Africa – and their relatively small demand. As such, when it reaches its full potential, Grand Inga’s low-cost electricity has the potential to dominate the electricity supply mix of neighbouring countries. However, as a result of the required mobilization of funds for Grand Inga’s construction, potential markets and hence investors need to be identified. Energy-intensive and growing economies in Southern and Western Africa are likely destinations for the project’s electricity, but this also necessitates transnational grid expansion to enable trade. This paper employs a cost-optimization approach to provide an indication, under various scenarios, of selected national economies that are likely to demand electricity from Inga and the associated trade routes that should be put in place. A national-scale model of the African continent is employed and results are compared to a preceding study, which used a coarser resolution of the continent’s electricity supply system.

The global production of natural gas has increased from 1226 bcm in 1973 to 3282 bcm in 2010 and is projected to continue rising by an annual growth rate of 1.6% between 2010 to 2035. Cyprus and Israel have recently made major offshore discoveries of natural gas, which can supply to a great extent the two countries’ current domestic energy needs for the next few decades and still export a substantial volume. MESSAGE, a global optimization model was used to explore the possible interactions between the two countries’ energy systems. Scenarios are presented that assess the export potential for electricity (generated by gas-fired power plants), liquefied natural gas (LNG) or gas-to-liquid products (GTL). The results are compared to a scenario without any available reserves to illustrate the financial benefits that will arise from the exploitation of the gas resources in the two countries.

In light of the ongoing financial crisis, Cyprus is called to transform its energy sector. The high electricity cost has been recognized as a priority issue and authorities on the island are considering several available options to reduce electricity tariffs. A fuel switch from oil to gas, domestic or imported, an electrical cross-border interconnection and a rapid increase in the share of renewable energy are among the major options being considered. Focusing on the power supply of Cyprus, the present study uses a cost-optimization tool to investigate the impact of different combinations of policy decision, resulting in a series of different scenarios, with some common key findings, with the aim of directly informing future energy policy decisions. Results indicate that renewable energy technologies will play a major role regardless the decisions taken. However, a set of enabling regulatory and market changes on the horizon might prevent least-cost deployment of renewables to take place. This study will review the findings and make some recommendations on the achievement of this optimal pathways for the evolution of Cyprus electricity sector.

The electricity supply system of Cyprus is currently dominated by oil-fired generation, with small but increasing contributions from renewable energy technologies. As regulations regarding emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants will become stricter with the turn of the decade, change is imminent. Available offshore gas reserves and the possibility of natural gas imports have shown that the substitution of oil with gas can reasonably be expected in the not-so-distant future. However, the framework under which change could occur has not yet been established. Should imports of gas serve as a short-term bridge until domestic gas becomes available? What are the infrastructure implications associated with such a medium-term solution? How does a policy-driven transition to gas affect energy security and how compatible is this with a liberalized electricity market? Can short- and longer term strategies be consistently designed and implemented? A cost-optimization model (OSeMOSYS), representing the electricity system of the island, is used to provide insights to these questions. Results regarding generation mix, capacity and system costs are presented for a set of scenarios. In all cases investigated, compliance with environmental regulations of the European Union after 2020 makes gas the strategic fuel of choice for low cost electricity generation.