Forecasting electricity prices for intraday markets using machine learning
2024 (Engelska)Konferensbidrag, Publicerat paper (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]
This paper studies the problem of forecasting electricity prices in continuous short-term electricity markets, specifically focusing on the intraday volume-weighted average price of hourly products in the last three hours of trading. Two state-of-the-art recurrent neural network architectures, namely the Temporal Fusion Transformer and the DeepAR network, are compared against well-established statistical models, such as the Linear Regression-LR, ARX, and SARIMAX models, concerning their forecast accuracy. Historical electricity market and grid data from European Energy Exchanges were used to create a forecasting dataset and train and compare five different model structures stemming from traditional statistical methods or contemporary deep learning-based counterparts.
Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Institution of Engineering and Technology (IET) , 2024. s. 13-18
Nyckelord [en]
Electricity trading, intraday market, machine learning, price forecasting
Nationell ämneskategori
Energisystem Sannolikhetsteori och statistik
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-362690DOI: 10.1049/icp.2024.4630Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105002477017OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-362690DiVA, id: diva2:1954132
Konferens
14th Mediterranean Conference on Power Generation Transmission, Distribution and Energy Conversion, MEDPOWER 2024, Athens, Greece, November 3-6, 2024
Anmärkning
QC 20250428
2025-04-232025-04-232025-06-03Bibliografiskt granskad