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An indicative assessment of investment opportunities in the African electricity supply sector
KTH, Skolan för industriell teknik och management (ITM), Energiteknik, Energisystemanalys.ORCID-id: 0000-0003-4022-5506
KTH, Skolan för industriell teknik och management (ITM), Energiteknik, Energisystemanalys.ORCID-id: 0000-0001-6419-4957
KTH, Skolan för industriell teknik och management (ITM), Energiteknik, Energisystemanalys.
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2014 (Engelska)Ingår i: Journal of Energy in Southern Africa, ISSN 1021-447X, Vol. 25, nr 1, s. 2-12Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

In the coming decades, demand for electricity will increase considerably on the African continent. Investment in power generation, transmission and distribution is necessary to meet this demand. In this paper a cost-optimization tool is used to assess investment opportunities under varying scenarios of GDP growth, electricity trade and CO2 taxation. Business as usual fuel price outlooks are assumed, and related assumptions are relatively conservative. The goal is to find if there are economic indications that renewable energy might play a significant role in the expansion of the African electricity system. The results show that there is potential of renewable energy (RE) resources to have a significant share in the generation mix. By 2030, 42% and 55% of the total generation is powered by renewables in the high and low GDP scenarios respectively. Promotion of interregional trade can assist in unlocking RE potential across the continent, such as hydro in Central Africa and wind in East Africa; these regions are projected to be net exporters of electricity. Additionally, generation by off-grid technologies increases over time, reaching 12% of the total generation by 2030 in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
2014. Vol. 25, nr 1, s. 2-12
Nyckelord [en]
renewable energy, electricity trade, power generation investment
Nationell ämneskategori
Energisystem
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-148172DOI: 10.17159/2413-3051/2014/v25i1a2681ISI: 000337735600001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84933526148OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-148172DiVA, id: diva2:737367
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QC 20140812

Tillgänglig från: 2014-08-12 Skapad: 2014-08-04 Senast uppdaterad: 2024-03-15Bibliografiskt granskad
Ingår i avhandling
1. Large scale renewable energy deployment - Insights offered by long-term energy models from selected case studies
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Large scale renewable energy deployment - Insights offered by long-term energy models from selected case studies
2017 (Engelska)Doktorsavhandling, sammanläggning (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]

The United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG7) of Agenda 2030 calls for an increase in the use of renewable energy sources, among other targets. The percentage of fossil fuel-fired thermal generation for electricity is increasingly being reduced as renewable energy technologies (RET) advance in cost-competitiveness, and as greenhouse gas and industrial air pollutant emission limits become more stringent. In certain cases, renewable energy contributes to energy security by improving a nation’s trade balance, since local resources are harnessed and imports are reduced. RET investments are becoming more frequent gaining a sizeable share in the electric power mix of numerous countries.

However, RET is affected by existing fossil fuel-fired electricity generation, especially in countries that have domestic reserves. While coal may be dirty, others such as natural gas provide multiple benefits, presenting a challenge to renewables. Additionally, RET endowment varies for each geographical location. This often does not correspond to the location of major electricity demand centers.  Therefore, large scale RET adoption and integration becomes logistically more cumbersome, as it necessitates existence of a developed grid network.

Utilizing a series of analyses in two different settings – Africa and Cyprus – this thesis draws insights on RET growth policy and the level of technology representation in long term energy models. In order to capture specific challenges of RET integration, enhancements in traditional long-term energy system models are called for and carried out.

 The case of Africa is used to assess adoption of RET under various trade scenarios. It is home to some of the world’s greatest RET resource potential and the single largest potential RET project, Grand Inga.  While, the island of Cyprus has goals of introducing large percentages of RET into its electric power mix. Each have important idiosyncrasies which are reflected in the analysis. On the one hand, natural gas competes with RET in Cyprus and forms a key transition fuel away from oil. On the other hand, lack of cross-border interconnectors limit RET project development across Africa.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2017. s. 79
Nyckelord
renewable energy integration; long-term energy models; gas reserves; policy insights; cost optimization; electricity trade
Nationell ämneskategori
Annan teknik
Forskningsämne
Energiteknik
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-207364 (URN)978-91-7729-426-9 (ISBN)
Disputation
2017-06-09, M3, Brinellvägen 64, 114 28 Stockholm, Stockholm, 13:00 (Engelska)
Opponent
Handledare
Anmärkning

QC 20170519

Tillgänglig från: 2017-05-19 Skapad: 2017-05-19 Senast uppdaterad: 2025-02-10Bibliografiskt granskad

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Taliotis, ConstantinosHowells, MarkWelsch, ManuelBroad, OliverRogner, HolgerBazilian, Morgan

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Taliotis, ConstantinosHowells, MarkHermann, SebastianWelsch, ManuelBroad, OliverRogner, HolgerBazilian, Morgan
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