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Supporting complete vehicle reliability forecasts
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Machine Design (Dept.), Machine Design (Div.). Scania CV AB. (System and component design)
2017 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Reliability is one of the properties that customers of heavy trucks value highest.Dependent on all parts and functions of the vehicle, reliability is a complexproperty, which can normally be measured only towards the end of a developmentproject. At earlier development stages, forecasts can give valuable decision supportfor project planning.The main function of a heavy truck is to transport goods, but the truck also hasinteractive functions as the working environment of the driver. Interactivefunctions are functions experienced by the driver. They are subjective, in the senseof being person dependent, so that a system can be experienced as inadequate byone user but satisfactory by another. Examples of interactive functions of heavytrucks are climate comfort and ergonomics, which are experienced differently bydifferent drivers. Failures of these functions lead to costs and limited availabilityfor the customer. Therefore it is important to include them in reliability forecasts.The work described in this thesis concerns some elements of the system reliabilityforecast. Two studies are presented, one proposing a qualitative systemarchitecture model and the other reviewing and testing methods for evaluating theimpact of varying operating conditions. Two case studies of a truck cab in a systemreliability test were made. The first case study shows that the system architecturemodel supports reliability forecasts by including interactive functions as well asexternal factors, human and environmental, which affect function performance.The second case study shows that modelling uncertainty is crucial for interactivefunctions and recommends a method to forecast function performance while takingvarying operating conditions into account.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2017. , p. 25
Series
TRITA-MMK, ISSN 1400-1179 ; 2017:09
Keywords [en]
Reliability forecast, interactive function, operating conditions
National Category
Mechanical Engineering
Research subject
Machine Design
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-208195ISBN: 978-91-7729-400-9 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-208195DiVA, id: diva2:1104835
Presentation
2017-06-07, B242, Brinellvägen 83, Stockholm, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Note

QC 20170602

Available from: 2017-06-02 Created: 2017-06-02 Last updated: 2022-09-09Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. DSM-based Reliability Analysis of Modular Architectures
Open this publication in new window or tab >>DSM-based Reliability Analysis of Modular Architectures
2015 (English)In: Modeling and managing complex systems: Proceedings of the 17th International DSM Conference Fort Worth (Texas, USA), 4-6 November 2015 / [ed] Tyson R. Browning, Steven D. Eppinger, Danilo Marcello Schmidt, Udo Lindemann, München: Carl Hanser Verlag GmbH, 2015, p. 111-122Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

The main function of a heavy truck is to transport goods. Furthermore,the truck is directly operated by a driver, who has several additional functionalrequirements, of both ergonomic and communicative characters. Transport is a trustbusiness and today’s just-in-time delivery systems rely on getting the goods on time.Product reliability, which is the ability of a system to perform according to itsfunctional targets, is consequently a crucially important property for a heavy truck.This paper proposes a structure for a system reliability model that integrates differentand complementary representations, such as Function-Means trees and DesignStructure Matrix. The novelty of the presented approach is that it treats andintegrates the technical and the human subsystems through the human-technicalsystem interfaces in an extended DSM. The proposed reliability systems approachis verified with a component analysis case study of a truck cab and driver system.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
München: Carl Hanser Verlag GmbH, 2015
Keywords
extended DSM, interactive functions
National Category
Reliability and Maintenance
Research subject
Machine Design
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-177604 (URN)10.3139/9783446447264.011 (DOI)2-s2.0-84964253100 (Scopus ID)978-3-446-44573-4 (ISBN)
Conference
17th International DSM Conference
Note

QC 20160119

Available from: 2015-12-17 Created: 2015-11-24 Last updated: 2024-03-18Bibliographically approved
2. Model-based reliability analysis
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Model-based reliability analysis
2016 (English)In: Artificial intelligence for engineering design, analysis and manufacturing, ISSN 0890-0604, E-ISSN 1469-1760, Vol. 30, no 3, p. 277-288Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The main function of a heavy truck is to transport goods, with ton-kilometers/year as an example of a major quantitative performance measure. Furthermore, the truck is directly operated by a driver, who has several additional functional requirements, of both ergonomic and communicative characters. Failure of these functions may be a subjective experience, differing between drivers, but the failures are still important. Today's just-in-time delivery systems rely on getting the goods on time, and this requires high availability. Availability is reduced not only by technical failures but also by subjectively experienced failures, because these also require repairs, or downtime. Product reliability is a systems property that cannot be attributed to a single component. It is in many cases related to interaction between components, or to interaction between humans and the technical system, in the case of subjectively experienced failures. Reliability assessments of systems with interactive functions require a system model that includes the interfaces between the technical system and human features that are carriers of interactive functions. This paper proposes a model of system architecture, for the purpose of reliability assessments, that integrates different and complementary representations, such as function-means diagrams and a design structure matrix. The novelty of the presented approach is that it treats and integrates the technical and the human subsystems through the human-technical system interfaces. The proposed systems reliability approach is described and verified with a component analysis case study of an extended truck cab and driver system.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Cambridge University Press, 2016
Keywords
Extended Design Structure Matrix, Interactive function, Reliability Estimation
National Category
Production Engineering, Human Work Science and Ergonomics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-192400 (URN)10.1017/S0890060416000251 (DOI)000381226000006 ()2-s2.0-84978661384 (Scopus ID)
External cooperation:
Note

QC 20160915

Available from: 2016-09-15 Created: 2016-09-12 Last updated: 2024-03-15Bibliographically approved
3. Reliability Assessment with Varying Operating Conditions
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Reliability Assessment with Varying Operating Conditions
2016 (English)In: Procedia CIRP, Elsevier, 2016, p. 796-801Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Product reliability is a systems property that cannot be attributed to a single component. It is in many cases related to interactions between components, or to interactions between humans and the technical system. Product functionality includes both technical functions, like structural integrity and interactive functions, like ergonomics. Reliability assessments in the early stages of the development process are valuable, since design changes cost significantly less if made early. System reliability tests can only be made towards the end of the development process, but early estimates can be based on test data from component tests and function tests. Operating conditions often vary between component tests and system tests. Therefore, reliability assessments where data from one situation is used to predict reliability in a different situation must take this variation into account. We investigate how this can be done for both technical and interactive functions. The study is made in the context of system reliability for heavy trucks, where both technical functions and interactive functions affect product reliability. Two cases have been assembled from test data, one concerning a component on a truck cab, the other an interactive function of a truck. Two reliability estimation methods have been evaluated to investigate if the methods can be used for interactive functions as well as for technical functions. We conclude that a method for reliability estimation of interactive functions must be able to model increased uncertainty due to intrapersonal variation.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2016
Keywords
interactive function, operating conditions, reliability estimation, Automobile testing, Ergonomics, Reliability analysis, Testing, Trucks, Development process, Interactive functions, Intra-personal variations, Operating condition, Product reliability, Reliability assessments, Technical functions, Reliability
National Category
Vehicle and Aerospace Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-195425 (URN)10.1016/j.procir.2016.04.139 (DOI)000387666600133 ()2-s2.0-84986626705 (Scopus ID)
Conference
26th CIRP Design Conference, 2016, 15 June 2016 through 17 June 2016
Note

QC 20161128

Available from: 2016-11-28 Created: 2016-11-03 Last updated: 2025-02-14Bibliographically approved
4. Modelling uncertainty of reliability forecasts with varying operating conditions
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Modelling uncertainty of reliability forecasts with varying operating conditions
(English)Article in journal (Other academic) Submitted
Abstract [en]

Heavy truck customers attach great importance to reliability, which make reliability assessments essential in product development projects. Since changes are easier and less expensive in early project stages, early reliability assessments are valuable. At these early stages, complete vehicle testing cannot yet be made. System reliability assessments must be made based on test data from component and subsystem tests, sometimes performed with different operating conditions than the system will be used in. Test data must be translated to the new situation, which requires information about how various factors affect reliability. Furthermore, the uncertainty in the forecast increases when the assessment is made for new operating conditions. Therefore, we also need information about how uncertainty propagates. The question is how this translation can be made, when data is sparse and expert judgement must be used, and how the increasing uncertainty can be reasonably modelled. In this paper, current methods to take into account varying operating conditions have been reviewed, and four methods have been tested in a case study. These methods are one based on fuzzy logic, a first-order second-moment reliability method (VMEA), and two variants of the proportional hazards model. The study shows that several methods are capable of handling sparse data, but only VMEA can model how uncertainty increases when operating conditions vary. It has however the drawback of being quite sensitive to uncertainty in the input data.

National Category
Reliability and Maintenance
Research subject
Machine Design
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-208539 (URN)
Note

QC 20170609

Available from: 2017-06-09 Created: 2017-06-09 Last updated: 2022-09-09Bibliographically approved

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Lindén, Julia

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