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Time series modeling of market price in real-time bidding
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2019 (English)In: ESANN 2019 - Proceedings, 27th European Symposium on Artificial Neural Networks, Computational Intelligence and Machine Learning, ESANN , 2019, p. 643-648Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Real-Time-Bidding (RTB) is one of the most popular online advertisement selling mechanisms. Modeling the highly dynamic bidding environment is crucial for making good bids. Market prices of auctions fluctuate heavily within short time spans. State-of-the-art methods neglect the temporal dependencies of bidders’ behaviors. In this paper, the bid requests are aggregated by time and the mean market price per aggregated segment is modeled as a time series. We show that the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural network outperforms the state-of-the-art univariate time series models by capturing the nonlinear temporal dependencies in the market price. We further improve the predicting performance by adding a summary of exogenous features from bid requests.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
ESANN , 2019. p. 643-648
Keywords [en]
Commerce, Machine learning, Time series, Dynamic biddings, Market price, Online advertisements, State of the art, State-of-the-art methods, Time series modeling, Time span, Univariate time series models, Long short-term memory
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering Economics Computer Systems
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-301579Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85071306494OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-301579DiVA, id: diva2:1593433
Conference
27th European Symposium on Artificial Neural Networks, Computational Intelligence and Machine Learning, ESANN 2019, 24 April 2019 through 26 April 2019
Note

Part of ISBN 9782875870650

QC 20210913

Available from: 2021-09-13 Created: 2021-09-13 Last updated: 2024-03-11Bibliographically approved

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Brorsson, Mats

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf