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Timetable Analysis based on Social Cost and Simulation
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2447-2438
2022 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The timetable is essential for railway traffic. Its design affects rail operations – and by extension all operators, passengers, and freight clients. International practice for capacity allocation varies and there is no common algorithm for designing and evaluating timetable changes. Especially challenging is coordinating heterogeneous services competing for track capacity. 

Aim of this thesis is to improve efficiency and transparency in capacity allocation by new methods to assess timetable adjustments. 

Although integration of capacity analysis and socio-economic evaluation is beneficial, combination of the two methods is rare. Because of that, two types of model are proposed in this thesis: The first combines capacity variables and social costs to represent the goodness of a timetable slot or a timetable using performance indices describing the travelling time experience of passengers riding the trains. Historical delay data from existing timetables provides information about the performance under operation. For strategies, a combined timetable and simulation approach is proposed to reveal variables for input to performance evaluation models. We show that microscopic simulation is advantageous for estimating operational data. Because departures ahead of schedule are common for freight trains suffers a simulation that does not include that feature of inaccuracies. Because of that, we suggest an approach for including early freight train departures to improve the accuracy of simulation results. Simulation with a macroscopic tool can speed up evaluation and improve user-friendliness of the method. For relatively small changes such as changed departure times and supplements which is focus in this work however, the microscopic tool shows greater advantage. 

The second model type considers conflicts between commercial long-distance trains and publicly controlled short-distance traffic competing for track capacity. We propose a method to calculate the loss of societal benefits incurred by changing the commuter train timetable to accommodate a commercial train path request. The calculation of these benefits considers changes in commuter train passengers’ travel times, waiting times, transfers and crowding for all trips in the system in combination with changes in operating costs for operator(s) of the short-distance services. 

All methods are applied in case studies and can (with adaptions) be used for other lines to improve the timetable allocation process, and to support transparent conflict solution. However, choosing an adequate model configuration is essential as it can affect results significantly.

Research was conducted for the two Swedish mainlines for passenger traffic (one articles includes an extension for a freight-focussed line), plus the Stockholm commuter network. The majority of the thesis concentrates on passenger traffic, and in particular, the conflict between long- and short-distance services. 

In addition to methodological contributions, we provide several practical results. We present strategies for improving reliability and evaluate them. Simple small changes in the timetable (such as changed departure times or time supplements) can have significant impact on the goodness of one or several timetable slots.

Abstract [sv]

Tidtabellen är av stort värde för järnvägstrafiken. Utformningen påverkarj ärnvägsdriften – och därmed operatörer, passagerare och fraktkunder. Det finns varken en gemensam internationell praxis för kapacitetstilldelning eller någon allmängiltig algoritm för att utforma och utvärdera ändringar i tidtabellen. Särskilt utmanande är samordningen av heterogen trafik som konkurrerar om spårkapacitet.

Syftet med avhandlingen är att förbättra effektiviteten och transparensen ik apacitetstilldelningen med hjälp av nya metoder för att uppskatta och utvärdera ändringar i tidtabellen.

Fastän en integrering av kapacitetsanalys och samhällsekonomisk utvärdering ärfördelaktig, kopplas dessa två metoder nästan aldrig ihop. Därför föreslås två typer av modeller i den här avhandlingen: Den första kombinerar kapacitetsvariabler och sociala kostnader för att presentera ett tågläges eller en tidtabells godhet i form av prestandaindex som beskriver upplevda restider för resenärerna. För befintliga tidtabeller ger historiska förseningsdata information om hur tidtabellen presterar i drift. För strategier rekommenderas kombinerad tidtabellsanalys och simulering för att ta fram variabler som indata till utvärderingsmodellen. Simulering på mikroskopisk nivå visade sig vara fördelaktig för att estimera operativa data. För att förbättra simuleringarnas precision föreslås en metod för att inkludera godståg somavgår före tidtabell. Simulering med ett makroskopiskt verktyg kan snabba på analysen och förbättra metodens användarvänlighet. Om små modifieringar som exempelvis ändrande avgångstider eller tidstillägg för enstaka tåg är i fokus så som idet här arbetet visas det mikroskopiska verktyget dock vara fördelaktigt.

Den andra modellen behandlar konflikten mellan kommersiella fjärrtåg och subventionerad lokaltrafik i konkurrens om spårkapacitet. Vi föreslår en metod för att beräkna hur samhällsnyttan påverkas när pendeltågstidtabellen måste ändras för att skapa plats åt ett kommersiellt tågläge. Beräkningen av dessa nyttor tar hänsyn till förändringar i pendeltågsresenärernas res-, vänte- och bytestider samt trängsel för samtliga resor i systemet tillsammans med förändringar i driftkostnaderna förpendeltågsoperatören.

Alla metoder har applicerats i fallstudier och kan (med anpassningar) användasför andra linjer för att förbättra processen för fördelning av tidtabeller och stödja konfliktlösning på ett transparent sätt. Att konfigurera modellen på ett lämpligt sättär dock viktig eftersom den kan påverka resultaten avsevärt.

Forskning har genomförts för två svenska stambanor för persontrafik (i en avstudierna inklusive en förlängning på en viktig bana för godstrafik), samt pendeltågsnätet i Stockholm. Fokus i den här avhandlingen är framföralltpersontrafik och särskilt konflikten mellan lång- och kortdistanstrafik.

Förutom de metodologiska bidragen presenterar vi flera praktiska resultat, till exempel visar och utvärderar vi strategier för att förbättra järnvägens robusthet. Redan små ändringar i tidtabellen, som till exempel ändrade avgångstider eller tidstillägg kan ge stora effekter på ett eller fleras tåglägens godhet.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2022. , p. 51
Series
TRITA-ABE-DLT ; 2220
Keywords [en]
Railway capacity allocation, timetable analysis, social costs, microscopic railway simulation, macroscopic railway simulation, passengers, timetable performance, early departing freight trains
Keywords [sv]
Järnvägskapacitet, tidtabellsanalys, sociala kostnader, mikroskopisk järnvägssimulering, makroskopisk järnvägssimulering, resande, tidtabellseffektivitet, tidiga godståg
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Research subject
Transport Science, Transport Systems
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-312092ISBN: 978-91-8040-251-4 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-312092DiVA, id: diva2:1657332
Public defence
2022-06-09, Kollegiesalen, Brinellvägen 8, KTH Campus, https://kth-se.zoom.us/j/65106856604, Stockholm, 10:15 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Note

QC220511

Available from: 2022-05-11 Created: 2022-05-10 Last updated: 2022-06-25Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Capacity for express trains on mixed traffic lines
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Capacity for express trains on mixed traffic lines
2014 (English)In: International Journal of Rail Transportation, ISSN 2324-8386, Vol. 2, no 1, p. 17-27Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Mixed traffic with large speed differences between fast and slower trains consumesmore capacity and makes the system sensitive to disruptions. This article focuses onadequate train configuration for increasing the top speed for express trains like theGreen Train and how that affects capacity on lines with heterogeneous traffic.Microscopic simulation of a future timetable selected by criteria revealed by analyticaltimetable analysis for a chosen structure of services combines the advantages of twomethods and makes it possible to reveal relevant characteristics for different alternatives.Punctual short stops through better train layout and skip-stop operation forregional trains are a few of the measures that are shown to have compensating effectsfor the increase in capacity utilisation and can reduce disruptions. Although it ispossible to reduce the perturbations by means of different measures, the basic problemwith mixing fast and slower trains on the same line still remains.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor & Francis Group, 2014
Keywords
Green Train, freight train, mixed traffic, train timetabling, punctuality, capacity
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Research subject
Järnvägsgruppen - Gröna tåget
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-165404 (URN)10.1080/23248378.2013.878292 (DOI)000218607800003 ()2-s2.0-84933278454 (Scopus ID)
Projects
Gröna Tåget
Note

QC 20150430

Available from: 2015-04-27 Created: 2015-04-27 Last updated: 2022-06-23Bibliographically approved
2. Economic evaluation of timetable strategies with simulation
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Economic evaluation of timetable strategies with simulation
2013 (English)Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Capacity shortfalls on railway lines often lead to disturbances in operation and limited possibilities for traffic increase. Static and dynamic characteristics describing the capacity are an important input for cost-benefit analysis. However, they are rarely used in economics. At the same time, economic parameters are hardly ever included in capacity studies.

This paper focuses on measurements of dynamic timetable and capacity characteristics. The purpose is to identify the determining variables that influence capacity and by the railway users. Is simulation a useful method to reveal the decisive parameters? A structure for economic evaluation of the identified characteristics is to be developed.

Using mixed methods data analysis, relevant capacity characteristics are retrieved and relationships between these, static criteria and socio-economic impacts identified. The study is mainly based on passenger rail traffic between Stockholm and Gothenburg in Sweden and the focus is on long-distance passenger traffic. Simulation is shown to be advantageous as future scenarios can be evaluated concerning operational parameters – which according to the results of this paper are important to travelers. A structure for a future model where timetable analysis and microscopic simulation are used to reveal relevant capacity characteristics based on the findings is presented.

National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Research subject
Järnvägsgruppen - Kapacitet; Transport Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-138275 (URN)
Conference
WCRR 2013, 10th World Congress on Railway Research, Sydney, Australia, 25-28 November 2013
Note

QC 20161005

Available from: 2013-12-18 Created: 2013-12-18 Last updated: 2024-03-18Bibliographically approved
3. The use of railway simulation as an input to economic assessment of timetables
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The use of railway simulation as an input to economic assessment of timetables
2016 (English)In: Journal of Rail Transport Planning & Management, ISSN 2210-9706, E-ISSN 2210-9714, Vol. 6, no 3, p. 255-270Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Assessment of capacity for highly-used railways is an important and challenging task. This paper describes a method for evaluation of timetables based on capacity and economic assessment. Common methods from both fields are combined. For developing and analysing purposes, the model is first tested with historical delay data for express trains on a double-track line with dense, mixed traffic in Sweden. An assessment aiming to compare the departures is made by combining common weights for different variables. Differences in the results based on the model structure are discussed. In the second step, microscopic simulation is used to reveal delay characteristics of timetable alternatives that are then compared and discussed in a similar way to step 1.

The presented method using simulation makes it possible to reveal and evaluate characteristics that are important for both timetable planning and economic analysis, for example evaluation of strategies. Timetable and delay times are important input variables that affect the travellers' choice. Using simulation and other methods from capacity planning gives the opportunity to find characteristics for analysing alternatives and improve economic evaluation, at the same time as the use of economic parameters provides more possibilities to make a relevant capacity analysis.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2016
Keywords
Capacity evaluation, Railway simulation, Economic assessment, Delays
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Research subject
Järnvägsgruppen - Kapacitet; Transport Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-190942 (URN)10.1016/j.jrtpm.2016.08.001 (DOI)000449592900006 ()2-s2.0-84994643720 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20160825

Available from: 2016-08-18 Created: 2016-08-18 Last updated: 2023-09-27Bibliographically approved
4. Pricing commercial train path requests based on societal costs
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Pricing commercial train path requests based on societal costs
2020 (English)In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 132, p. 452-464Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

On deregulated railway markets, efficient capacity allocation is important. We study the case where commercial trains and publicly controlled traffic (“commuter trains”) use the same railway infrastructure and hence compete for capacity. We develop a method that can be used by an infrastructure manager trying to allocate capacity in a socially efficient way. The method calculates the loss of societal benefits incurred by changing the commuter train timetable to accommodate a commercial train path request, and based on this calculates a reservation price for the train path request. If the commercial operator's willingness-to-pay for the train path exceeds the loss of societal benefits, its request is approved. The calculation of these benefits takes into account changes in commuter train passengers’ travel times, waiting times, transfers and crowding, and changes in operating costs for the commuter train operator(s). The method is implemented in a microscopic simulation program, which makes it possible to test the robustness and feasibility of timetable alternatives. We show that the method is possible to apply in practice by demonstrating it in a case study from Stockholm, illustrating the magnitudes of the resulting commercial train path prices. We conclude that marginal societal costs of railway capacity in Stockholm are considerably higher than the current track access charges.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2020
Keywords
Capacity allocation, Capacity pricing, Railway capacity, Train conflicts, Train timetables
National Category
Civil Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-267806 (URN)10.1016/j.tra.2019.12.005 (DOI)000514014700030 ()2-s2.0-85076736383 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20200303

Available from: 2020-03-03 Created: 2020-03-03 Last updated: 2022-06-26Bibliographically approved
5. Microscopic and macroscopic simulation of early freight train departures
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Microscopic and macroscopic simulation of early freight train departures
Show others...
2022 (English)In: Journal of Rail Transport Planning & Management, ISSN 2210-9706, E-ISSN 2210-9714, Vol. 21, article id 100295Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In Sweden and other countries it is not an uncommon practice that freight trains depart more or less on-demand instead of strictly following a pre-planned timetable. However, the systematic effects of freight trains departing late or (in particular) early has long been a contested issue. Although some microscopic simulation tools currently have the capability to evaluate the effect of freight trains departing before schedule, it has yet not been established how macroscopic simulation tools, capable of fast simulation of nation-wide networks, can manage such tasks. This paper uses a case study on a line between two large freight yards in Sweden to investigate how the results of microscopic and macroscopic simulation, represented by two modern simulation tools, differ when it comes to this particular problem. The main findings are that both the microscopic and the macroscopic tools replicated the empirical punctuality fairly well. Furthermore, allowing early departures of freight trains increased overall freight train punctuality while the passenger train punctuality decreased slightly, as determined by both tools. The results are encouraging, but further studies are needed to determine if macroscopic simulation is on-par with microscopic simulation.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV, 2022
Keywords
Railway, Simulation, Microscopic, Macroscopic, Freight trains, Early departures
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-310275 (URN)10.1016/j.jrtpm.2022.100295 (DOI)000761117600002 ()2-s2.0-85124169483 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20220328

Available from: 2022-03-28 Created: 2022-03-28 Last updated: 2024-03-18Bibliographically approved
6. Integrating Micro- and Macroscopic Simulation and Passenger Effects in Timetable Analysis
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Integrating Micro- and Macroscopic Simulation and Passenger Effects in Timetable Analysis
2022 (English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Allocating train runs usually focuses on avoiding conflicts while adjusting requested paths as little as possible. However, a conflict-free timetable is not a guarantee for high reliability. The aim of this article is (1) to estimate the efficiency of alternative timetable slots by comparing different, but similar express train departures as if they were alternative slots and (2) to analyse effects of changes in a timetable with long and short-distance services competing for capacity. For this purpose, timetable performance indices are proposed considering timetable and reliability criteria with demand. These indices were computed based on empirical and simulated data. The methodology is applied in case studies for the Swedish Western and Southern Main Lines and is shown to be relevant to capacity allocation and helpful in the timetabling process, especially when passenger demand is known. Simulation with the microscopic tool RailSys and the macroscopic PROTON is used to estimate how timetables on double track lines with dense, heterogenous traffic react to disturbances. With the suggested model configuration, estimated delay and travel demand have larger impact on the goodness of a timetable than travel times. Both the micro and macroscopic simulation tools are shown to be useful, but the more detailed RailSys is more adequate for estimating the goodness of a timetable focusing on train slots and small changes. 

Keywords
Railway capacity allocation, microscopic railway simulation, macroscopic railway simulation, passengers, performance, social costs
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Research subject
Transport Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-312090 (URN)
Note

Submitted to Journal of Rail Transport Planning & Management, ISSN 2210-9706, EISSN 2210-9714

QC 20220603

Available from: 2022-05-10 Created: 2022-05-10 Last updated: 2022-06-25Bibliographically approved

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Warg, Jennifer

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  • apa
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