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Real-time Train Arrival Time Prediction at Multiple Stations and Arbitrary Times
Lund Univ, Dept Technol & Soc, POB 118, S-22100 Lund, Sweden..
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2141-0389
Lund Univ, Dept Technol & Soc, POB 118, S-22100 Lund, Sweden..ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3906-1033
2022 (English)In: 2022 IEEE 25TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS (ITSC), Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) , 2022, p. 793-798Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Real-time prediction of train arrivals is important for proactive traffic control and information provision in passenger rails. Despite many studies in predicting arrival times or delays at stations, they are essentially the next-step time series prediction problem which may limit their applications in practice. For example, passengers on the trains or waiting on platforms may have different destinations and need the predicted train arrival times for any downstream stations rather than only the next station. The paper aims to formulate a real-time train arrival times prediction problem at multiple stations and arbitrary times. We develop multi-output machine learning models and systematically evaluate their performance using train operation data in Sweden. The direct multi-output regression models with different regression functions are tested, including LightGBM, linear regression, random forest regression, and gradient boosting regression models. The hyperparameters are optimized using random grid search and five-fold cross-validation methods. The results show that the Direct Multi-Output LightGBM significantly outperformed other models in terms of accuracy. The predictions at downstream stations improve as the train moves along given more real-time information is observed.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) , 2022. p. 793-798
Series
IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems-ITSC, ISSN 2153-0009
Keywords [en]
Multi-Output Regression, Train arrival times, LightGBM, Machine learning, High-speed railway
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-326436DOI: 10.1109/ITSC55140.2022.9922299ISI: 000934720600123Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85141846305OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-326436DiVA, id: diva2:1754214
Conference
IEEE 25th International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC), OCT 08-12, 2022, Macau, PEOPLES R CHINA
Note

QC 20230503

Available from: 2023-05-03 Created: 2023-05-03 Last updated: 2024-03-18Bibliographically approved

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Ma, ZhenliangPalmqvist, Carl-William

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf