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A similarity-based Bayesian mixture-of-experts model
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.). RaySearch Labs, Eugeniavagen 18, SE-17164 Solna, Stockholm, Sweden.;Silo AI, Fredrikinkatu 57 C, FI-00100 Helsinki, Finland..ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6724-2547
RaySearch Labs, Eugeniavagen 18, SE-17164 Solna, Stockholm, Sweden..
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.).ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0772-846X
2023 (English)In: Statistics and computing, ISSN 0960-3174, E-ISSN 1573-1375, Vol. 33, no 4, article id 83Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We present a new nonparametric mixture-of-experts model for multivariate regression problems, inspired by the probabilistic k-nearest neighbors algorithm. Using a conditionally specified model, predictions for out-of-sample inputs are based on similarities to each observed data point, yielding predictive distributions represented by Gaussian mixtures. Posterior inference is performed on the parameters of the mixture components as well as the distance metric using a mean-field variational Bayes algorithm accompanied with a stochastic gradient-based optimization procedure. The proposed method is especially advantageous in settings where inputs are of relatively high dimension in comparison to the data size, where input-output relationships are complex, and where predictive distributions may be skewed or multimodal. Computational studies on five datasets, of which two are synthetically generated, illustrate clear advantages of our mixture-of-experts method for high-dimensional inputs, outperforming competitor models both in terms of validation metrics and visual inspection.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Nature , 2023. Vol. 33, no 4, article id 83
Keywords [en]
Mixture-of-experts, Nonparametric Bayesian regression, k-nearest neighbors, Pseudolikelihood, Variational inference, Reparameterization trick
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-329452DOI: 10.1007/s11222-023-10238-yISI: 000998699100001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85160424509OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-329452DiVA, id: diva2:1772063
Note

QC 20230621

Available from: 2023-06-21 Created: 2023-06-21 Last updated: 2023-06-21Bibliographically approved

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Zhang, TianfangOlsson, Jimmy

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