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Prospects of Deterrence: Deterrence Theory, Representation and Evidence
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Philosophy and History. Swedish National Defence University, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1939-9392
2024 (English)In: Defence and Peace Economics, ISSN 1024-2694, E-ISSN 1476-8267, Vol. 35, no 2, p. 145-159Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Game theoretic analysis of deterrence has been criticized for not capturing how actors realistically behave. It is alleged that prospect theoretical re-modeling provides a better foundation for a deterrence theory. The article analyzes how the strategies change when a prospect theoretical function is applied to a central deterrence game. While the probability distributions changes, it cannot alter the general dynamics. When considered together with previous research, it shows that prospect theory neither can or should replace standard assumptions when constructing a deterrence theory. However, viewed as a compliment, prospect theory expands the modeling possibilities and opens up for important new aspects.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Informa UK Limited , 2024. Vol. 35, no 2, p. 145-159
Keywords [en]
Deterrence theory, game theory, prospect theory
National Category
Philosophy Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies)
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-335761DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2152956ISI: 000900706800001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85144572763OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-335761DiVA, id: diva2:1795793
Note

QC 20250609

Available from: 2023-09-11 Created: 2023-09-11 Last updated: 2025-06-09Bibliographically approved

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Sörenson, Karl

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