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Conformal Predictions under Markovian Data
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Intelligent systems, Decision and Control Systems (Automatic Control).
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Intelligent systems, Decision and Control Systems (Automatic Control).ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4679-4673
2024 (English)In: International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML 2024, ML Research Press , 2024, p. 61470-61497Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

We study the split Conformal Prediction method when applied to Markovian data.We quantify the gap in terms of coverage induced by the correlations in the data (compared to exchangeable data).This gap strongly depends on the mixing properties of the underlying Markov chain, and we prove that it typically scales as (Equation presented) (where tmix is the mixing time of the chain).We also derive upper bounds on the impact of the correlations on the size of the prediction set.Finally we present K-split CP, a method that consists in thinning the calibration dataset and that adapts to the mixing properties of the chain.Its coverage gap is reduced to tmix/(nln(n)) without really affecting the size of the prediction set.We finally test our algorithms on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
ML Research Press , 2024. p. 61470-61497
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-353955Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85203831312OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-353955DiVA, id: diva2:1901031
Conference
41st International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML 2024, Vienna, Austria, Jul 21 2024 - Jul 27 2024
Note

QC 20240925

Available from: 2024-09-25 Created: 2024-09-25 Last updated: 2024-09-25Bibliographically approved

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Zheng, FrédéricProutiere, Alexandre

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