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Optimal Defender Strategies for CAGE-2 using Causal Modeling and Tree Search
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Computer Science, Network and Systems Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1773-8354
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Computer Science, Network and Systems Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6039-8493
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The CAGE-2 challenge is considered a standard benchmark to compare methods for automated security response. Current state-of-the-art methods evaluated against this benchmark are based on model-free (offline) reinforcement learning, which does not provide provably optimal defender strategies. We address this limitation and present a formal (causal) model of CAGE-2 together with a method that produces a provably optimal defender strategy, which we call Causal-Partially Observable Monte-Carlo Planning (C-POMCP). It has two key properties. First, it incorporates the causal structure of the target system, i.e., the causal relationships among the system variables. This structure allows for a significant reduction of the search space of defender strategies. Second, it is an online method that uses tree search to update the defender strategy at each time step. Evaluations against the CAGE-2 benchmark show that C-POMCP achieves state-of-the-art performance with respect to effectiveness and is two orders of magnitude more efficient in computing time than the closest competitor method.

Keywords [en]
Decision theory, Causality, Tree Search, Cybersecurity
National Category
Computer Systems
Research subject
Electrical Engineering; Computer Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-354764OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-354764DiVA, id: diva2:1905273
Note

QC 20241014

Available from: 2024-10-12 Created: 2024-10-12 Last updated: 2024-10-14Bibliographically approved

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Hammar, KimStadler, Rolf

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CiteExportLink to record
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