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Machine learning approach for predicting nuclide composition in nuclear fuel: Bypassing traditional depletion and transport calculations
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Physics, Nuclear Science and Engineering.
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Physics, Nuclear Science and Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7943-7517
2025 (English)In: Annals of Nuclear Energy, ISSN 0306-4549, E-ISSN 1873-2100, Vol. 213, article id 111062Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Accurate prediction of nuclide composition evolution during fuel depletion typically requires computationally intensive transport calculations to determine 1-group cross sections for all transmutation reactions in the reaction network. These cross sections are influenced by the neutron energy spectrum, which varies with both depletion and changing state parameters, such as fuel and moderator temperatures. This study investigates the feasibility of a machine learning-based model designed to predict nuclide composition directly from power history and state parameters, bypassing the need to calculate group cross sections and solve the Bateman equation. Model testing on an unseen power and state parameter history showed a mean absolute relative error of 0.471% for 235U. Due to its rapid inference speed, this approach is well suited to applications where traditional transport calculations are prohibitively expensive.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV , 2025. Vol. 213, article id 111062
Keywords [en]
Deep learning, Depletion calculations, Neural network
National Category
Subatomic Physics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-357901DOI: 10.1016/j.anucene.2024.111062ISI: 001379429700001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85211174086OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-357901DiVA, id: diva2:1922608
Note

QC 20241220

Available from: 2024-12-19 Created: 2024-12-19 Last updated: 2025-09-25Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Machine learning methods in reactor lattice and nodal calculations
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Machine learning methods in reactor lattice and nodal calculations
2025 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

 This thesis investigates the application of advanced machine learning (ML) techniques for reactor physics applications, specifically in the area of lattice and nodal calculations. The research is divided into two main areas. The first focuses on accelerating the generation of few-group cross section (FGXS) data and the second area focuses on the use of ML for accurate predictions of nodal parameters and their uncertainty estimates.   In the first area, ML-based surrogate models were developed to predict multi-group cross section (MGXS) libraries for nuclides commonly found in pressurized water reactors (PWRs), serving as efficient alternatives to conventional tools such as XSPROC. Additionally, a hybrid model incorporating two deep neural networks (DNNs) with a linear blending scheme was proposed to simulate the depletion-driven evolution of nuclide compositions within fuel pellets. To manage the high dimensionality of MGXS data, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was employed to construct a reduced latent space, which was then mapped using DNNs conditioned on reactor state parameters. Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) were also evaluated for modeling fuel depletion behavior. Two RNN variants—the “Direct NN” and the “Difference NN”—were developed and compared, and a nuclide-specific blending parameter optimized during training was introduced to enhance predictive performance without requiring additional training data.  The second area examines ML-based approaches for nodal data representation. Statistically rigorous model comparisons were performed using the non-parametric Wilcoxon, Nemenyi, McDonald-Thompson (WNMT) test. The study demonstrated that ML models can predict not only mean FGXS parameters but also their associated covariance matrices, capturing aleatoric uncertainty and enabling their integration into full-core uncertainty quantification frameworks. Both polynomial regression and DNN-based models were assessed, alongside the effects of descriptive statistical preprocessing. Results showed a strong dependence of model accuracy on training dataset size, with polynomial regression combined with descriptive statistics yielding the most accurate predictions on the largest dataset.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2025. p. ix, 68
Series
TRITA-SCI-FOU ; 2025:38
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies
Research subject
Physics, Nuclear Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-370472 (URN)978-91-8106-377-6 (ISBN)
Public defence
2025-09-26, FB51, Roslagstullsbacken 21, AlbaNova, Stockholm, 14:00 (English)
Supervisors
Note

QC 2025-09-25

Available from: 2025-09-25 Created: 2025-09-25 Last updated: 2025-10-27Bibliographically approved

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Chan, Yi MengDufek, Jan

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