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Regional climate projections using a deep-learning–based model-ranking and downscaling framework: application to European climate zones
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Engineering Mechanics, Aerospace, moveability and naval architecture.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8106-4556
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Engineering Mechanics.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5723-9571
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Engineering Mechanics, Fluid Mechanics.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6570-5499
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Engineering Mechanics.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9902-6216
2025 (English)In: Environmental Science and Pollution Research, ISSN 0944-1344, E-ISSN 1614-7499Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

 Accurate regional climate projection calls for high-resolution downscaling of Global Climate Models (GCMs). This work presents a deep-learning-based multi-model evaluation and downscaling framework ranking 32 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models using a Deep Learning-TOPSIS (DL-TOPSIS) mechanism and refines outputs using advanced deep-learning models. Using nine performance criteria, five Köppen-Geiger climate zones—Tropical, Arid, Temperate, Continental, and Polar—are investigated over four seasons. While TaiESM1 and CMCC-CM2-SR5 show notable biases, ranking results show that NorESM2-LM, GISS-E2-1-G, and HadGEM3-GC31-LL outperform other models. Four models contribute to downscaling the top-ranked GCMs to 0.1o resolution (Vision Transformer (ViT), Geospatial Spatiotemporal Transformer with Attention and Imbalance-Aware Network (GeoSTANet), CNN-LSTM, CNN-Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM)). Effectively capturing temperature extremes (TXx, TNn), GeoSTANet achieves the highest accuracy (Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) = 1.57oC, Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) = 0.89, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) = 0.85, Correlation (r) = 0.92), so reducing RMSE by 20% over ConvLSTM. CNN-LSTM and ConvLSTM do well in Continental and Temperate zones; ViT finds fine-scale temperature fluctuations difficult. These results confirm that multi-criteria ranking improves GCM selection for regional climate studies and transformer-based downscaling exceeds conventional deep-learning methods. This framework offers a scalable method to enhance high-resolution climate projections, benefiting impact assessments and adaptation plans. The present study has the following limitations, which will be addressed in future works: (i) temperature-only focus, (ii) unquantified scenario uncertainty, and (iii) higher computational cost of transformer models.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Nature, 2025.
Keywords [en]
Climate downscaling, GCM ranking, high-resolution climate projections, Köppen-geiger climate zones, regional climate impact, transformer-based downscaling
National Category
Climate Science Artificial Intelligence Vehicle and Aerospace Engineering
Research subject
Geodesy and Geoinformatics, Geoinformatics; Aerospace Engineering; Applied and Computational Mathematics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-368959DOI: 10.1007/s11356-025-36872-9PubMedID: 40815421Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105013360616OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-368959DiVA, id: diva2:1991458
Projects
E-CONTRAIL
Funder
EU, Horizon Europe, 101114795
Note

QC 20250825

Available from: 2025-08-22 Created: 2025-08-22 Last updated: 2025-08-25Bibliographically approved

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Loganathan, ParthibanVinuesa, RicardoOtero, Evelyn

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