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Impacts of electric and driverless heavy-duty trucks on the future decarbonized freight transport system: Analyzing techno-economic uncertainty using exploratory modeling and analysis
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Centres, Integrated Transport Research Lab, ITRL.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7324-6691
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Centres, Integrated Transport Research Lab, ITRL.ORCID iD: 0009-0003-0230-186X
VTI The Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Sweden.
VTI The Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Sweden.
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2025 (English)In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 199, article id 104576Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Predicting the impacts of a transition to a decarbonized freight transport system is challenging due to the inherent uncertainty surrounding the development and deployment of electric and automated truck technologies. This paper presents an exploratory analysis of techno-economic uncertainties for the deployment of electric trucks and automated driving technology and their impacts on the Swedish freight transport system by 2045. A modified version of the Swedish national freight model, Samgods, extended to represent manual electric trucks (METs) and automated driverless electric trucks (AETs), is used to analyze over 300 scenarios. In these scenarios, assumptions about the development and performance of METs and AETs are varied relative to the Swedish reference forecast for freight transport. System-level impacts including mode splits, logistics costs, and energy demand are analyzed. Higher levels of electric truck technology maturity correlate with reduced transport costs, increased road freight demand, and decreased reliance on biofuels. AETs further amplify these effects although with significant variation by operating model and technology maturity. Even without full SAE Level 5 automation, AETs operating exclusively on highways could, in some scenarios, perform over 75 % of domestic road transport tonne-kilometers, provided their unit economics are favorable. In addition to contributing by exploring a plausible outcome space of electrification and automated driving technology, this paper demonstrates a tractable approach for exploring system-level impacts of MET and AET deployment on logistics, mode shifts, and energy consumption with national-level freight models under uncertainty.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV , 2025. Vol. 199, article id 104576
Keywords [en]
Driverless trucks, Electric trucks, Exploratory modeling, Freight transport, Uncertainty
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-368842DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2025.104576ISI: 001524177800002Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105009330003OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-368842DiVA, id: diva2:1994241
Note

QC 20250902

Available from: 2025-09-02 Created: 2025-09-02 Last updated: 2025-09-02Bibliographically approved

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Engholm, AlbinFrölander, Simon

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