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Methods for Analyzing Complex and Holistic Interactions in Early-stage design: A framework integrating Network Theory, Sensitivity Analysis, and Structural Equation Modelling for analyzing interactions among subsystems in early-stage design
KTH, Skolan för teknikvetenskap (SCI), Centra, VinnExcellence Center for ECO2 Vehicle design. KTH, Skolan för teknikvetenskap (SCI), Teknisk mekanik, Fordonsteknik och akustik. (Conceptual Vehicle Design)ORCID-id: 0000-0001-9518-0056
2025 (Engelska)Doktorsavhandling, sammanläggning (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]

The conventional approach to vehicle design is inherently restrictive in analysing complex interactions and the resulting knock-on effects. This often leads to disharmonious solutions and increased design iterations. To overcome this, the focus needs to shift to early-stage design where there is freedom to explore design alternatives. But, this phase typically has limited information about system behaviour, entailing the need for holistic multidisciplinary models and robust methods. However, the methods and models available often focus on single aspect in isolation, which necessitates the need for an integrated framework. 

This thesis proposes a framework that analyses complex and holistic interactions within multidisciplinary systems to investigate how the variation in input propagates as knock-on effects and ultimately influences the system outputs. To achieve this, the framework is structured into five distinct phases. Each phase aims to address the research questions formulated and fulfil the functions of the framework. The framework integrates multidisciplinary modelling techniques with network theory to capture complex interactions. Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) methods are combined with tailored network algorithms to identify the interactions relevant to a specific input and output. These identified interactions are then quantified using curve fitting and two directional sensitivity measures, Average Local Sensitivity Coefficient (ALSC) and Average Combined Sensitivity Coefficient (ACSC), which were proposed in this thesis. Finally, Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) is utilised to investigate how input variations propagate as knock-on effects through intermediate variables, ultimately influencing system outputs.

The framework's capabilities were demonstrated through two case studies. An intra-subsystem interaction analysis with traction motor and an inter-subsystem interaction analysis involving a traction motor and a passive cooling model of an inverter. In the intra-subsystem case study, the framework successfully identified three influential inputs (voltage (U), rated power (Prated), and frequency (f)) for the chosen output of interest (rotor resistance (R'r)), and reduced the number of factors to consider in the analysis by 92.51% for U, 89.42% for Prated, and 93.83% for f. The results obtained from the framework was compared to the results from GSA methods, which showed a maximum error of 3%, thereby validating the proposed framework's ability to calculate the knock-on effects and the total impact while preserving the input-output relationship. Furthermore, the framework revealed insights into nuances of knock-on effects and total impact, such as the finding that the rated power induced more design changes despite having similar influence on the output as frequency.

In the inter-subsystem interaction analysis, the framework was similarly able to identify the influential input (Prated) for the chosen output of interest (Tbase,max), and reduced the number of factors to consider by 57%. The validation step revealed an error of 6.77%, which was acceptable considering the complexity of the network that involves 3568 paths between the input and the output. Furthermore, while calculating the direct ALSC value using curve fitting, it was observed that Tbase,max had distinct clusters across specific ranges of motor power values which was attributed to the presence of incorporated design margins and complex interactions in the traction motor model.

Thus, this thesis delivers a framework that is capable of systematically capturing, quantifying, and analysing complex and holistic interactions in a multidisciplinary system to investigate and quantify the knock-on effects and the total impact of varying an input on an output. It serves as a valuable comprehensive guide in early-stage design for designers to identify an effective input to significantly influence a specific output and understand the consequence of modifying that chosen input.  

Abstract [sv]

Den konventionella metoden för fordonsdesign är i sig restriktiv när det gäller att analysera komplexa interaktioner och de resulterande kedjeeffekterna (knock-on effects). Detta leder ofta till lösningar som inte fungerar bra tillsammans och till fler interationer under designprocessen. För att övervinna detta behöver fokus flyttas till tidig designfas där det finns frihet att utforska designalternativ. Men denna fas kännetecknas typiskt av begränsad information om systembeteende, vilket medför behovet av holistiska tvärvetenskapliga modeller och robusta metoder. De tillgängliga metoderna och modellerna fokuserar dock ofta på enskilda aspekter isolerat, vilket nödvändiggör ett integrerat ramverk.

Denna avhandling föreslår ett ramverk som analyserar komplexa och holistiska interaktioner inom tvärvetenskapliga system för att undersöka hur variationen i indata sprids som kedjeeffekter och slutligen påverkar systemutdata. För att uppnå detta är ramverket strukturerat i fem distinkta faser. Varje fas syftar till att adressera de formulerade forskningsfrågorna och uppfylla ramverkets funktioner. Ramverket integrerar tvärvetenskapliga modelleringsmetoder med Nätverksteori (Network Theory) för att fånga komplexa interaktioner. Global känslighetsanalys (Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA)) metoder kombineras med skräddarsydda nätverksalgoritmer för att identifiera de interaktioner som är relevanta för en specifik in- och utdata. Dessa identifierade interaktioner kvantifieras sedan med hjälp av kurvanpassning och två riktade känslighetsmått, Average Local Sensitivity Coefficient (ALSC) och Average Combined Sensitivity Coefficient (ACSC), vilka föreslogs i denna avhandling. Slutligen används Strukturell ekvationsmodellering (Structural Equation Modelling (SEM)) för att undersöka hur indatavariationer sprids som kedjeeffekter genom mellanliggande variabler, vilket slutligen påverkar systemutdata.

Ramverkets kapacitet demonstrerades genom två fallstudier. En interaktionsanalys inom delsystemet med framdrivningsmotor och en interaktionsanalys mellan delsystem som involverade en framdrivningsmotor och en passiv kylningsmodell för en växelriktare. I fallstudien inom delsystemet identifierade ramverket framgångsrikt tre inflytelserika indata (spänning (U), nominell effekt (Prated) och frekvens (f)) för den valda utdatan av intresse (rotorresistans (Rr')), och minskade antalet faktorer att beakta i analysen med 92.51% för U, 89.42% för Prated och 93.83% för f. Resultaten från ramverket jämfördes med resultat från GSA-metoder, vilket visade en maximal avvikelse på 3%, och därmed validerades det föreslagna ramverkets förmåga att beräkna kedjeeffekterna och den totala påverkan samtidigt som in-utdata-förhållandet bevarades. Vidare gav ramverket insikter i nyanserna av kedjeeffekter och total påverkan, såsom fyndet att den nominella effekten orsakade fler designförändringar trots att den hade liknande påverkan på utdata som frekvensen.

I interaktionsanalysen mellan delsystem kunde ramverket på liknande sätt identifiera den inflytelserika indatan (Prated) för den valda utdatan av intresse (Tbase,max), och minskade antalet faktorer att beakta med 57%. Valideringssteget visade en avvikelse på 6.77%, vilket var acceptabelt med tanke på nätverkets komplexitet som involverar 3568 vägar mellan indata och utdata. Vidare, vid beräkning av det direkta ALSC-värdet med hjälp av kurvanpassning, observerades att Tbase,max hade distinkta kluster över specifika intervall av motoreffektvärden, vilket tillskrevs förekomsten av inbyggda designmarginaler och komplexa interaktioner i framdrivningsmotormodellen.

Således levererar denna avhandling ett ramverk som systematiskt kan fånga, kvantifiera och analysera komplexa och holistiska interaktioner i ett tvärvetenskapligt system för att undersöka och kvantifiera kedjeeffekterna och den totala påverkan av en förändring i en indata på en utdata. Det fungerar som en värdefull och omfattande guide för formgivare att identifiera effektiv indata för att avsevärt påverka en specifik utdata i den tidiga designfasen och att förstå konsekvenserna av att modifiera den valda indatan.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2025.
Kanal
978-91-8106-386-8
Serie
TRITA-SCI-FOU ; 2025:44
Nyckelord [en]
Change propagation analysis, Curve fitting, Early-Stage Design, Global Sensitivity Analysis, Interaction analysis, Knock-on effects, Multidisciplinary models, Network Theory, Structural Equation Modelling.
Nyckelord [sv]
Förändringspropagationsanalys, Global känslighetsanalys, Interaktionsanalys, Kurvanpassning, Kedjeeffekter, Nätverksteori, Strukturell ekvationsmodellering, Tidig designfas, Tvärvetenskapliga modeller.
Nationell ämneskategori
Farkost och rymdteknik
Forskningsämne
Farkostteknik
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-370102ISBN: 978-91-8106-386-8 (tryckt)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-370102DiVA, id: diva2:1999092
Disputation
2025-10-23, Kollegiesalen, Brinellvägen 8, Stockholm, 10:00 (Engelska)
Handledare
Forskningsfinansiär
Vinnova, 2016-05195
Anmärkning

QC 250922

Tillgänglig från: 2025-09-22 Skapad: 2025-09-18 Senast uppdaterad: 2025-10-06Bibliografiskt granskad
Delarbeten
1. A Holistic Design Approach to the Mathematical Modelling of Induction Motors for Vehicle Design
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>A Holistic Design Approach to the Mathematical Modelling of Induction Motors for Vehicle Design
2023 (Engelska)Ingår i: Procedia CIRP, 2023, Vol. 119, s. 1246-1251Konferensbidrag, Publicerat paper (Refereegranskat)
Abstract [en]

In early-stage vehicle design, there is a significant lack of knowledge about the impact of design requirements on the design of subsystems, theresulting knock-on effects between subsystems and the vehicle’s overall performance. This leads to a sub-optimal vehicle design with increaseddesign iterations. To mitigate this lack of knowledge, a cross-scalar design tool consisting of an induction motor model is presented in this paper.The tool calculates the motor’s attributes, namely its volume, mass, and the performance it can deliver to satisfy a given drive cycle’s requirements.This is achieved by breaking down the drive cycle requirements into motor parameters from which the various power losses are derived. Thesekey losses are then utilised to develop the torque/speed curve. Furthermore, it is proposed that the motor’s attributes can be used to design othersubsystems and consequently analyse their interaction effects. For example, the motor’s attributes can be used to design regenerative brakes andconsequently analyse their influence on brake wear, lifetime, and energy savings. Thus, the design tool enables the design of efficient vehicles withminimised design iterations by analysing the influence of design requirements on the subsystem’s design and the consequent interaction effectsamong the subsystems and on the vehicle’s overall performance.

Serie
Procedia CIRP, ISSN 2212-8271
Nyckelord
Early-stage design; Design tool; Subsystem Interaction; Induction Motor Model
Nationell ämneskategori
Farkost och rymdteknik
Forskningsämne
Farkostteknik
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-337384 (URN)10.1016/j.procir.2023.02.193 (DOI)2-s2.0-85169913726 (Scopus ID)
Konferens
The 33rd CIRP Design Conference, Sydney, Australia, May 17-19, 2023
Anmärkning

QC 20231002

Tillgänglig från: 2023-10-02 Skapad: 2023-10-02 Senast uppdaterad: 2025-09-18Bibliografiskt granskad
2. Network Theory Approach to Analysing Knock-On Effects in Rail Vehicle Design
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Network Theory Approach to Analysing Knock-On Effects in Rail Vehicle Design
2024 (Engelska)Ingår i: The Sixth International Conference on Railway Technology: Research, Development and Maintenance, 2024Konferensbidrag, Publicerat paper (Refereegranskat)
Abstract [en]

Rail vehicle models have become increasingly complex, posing challenges in extracting insights using traditional model representations as they require numerous iterations to achieve a satisfactory solution. This complexity leads to high computational and time costs and possibly resulting in inefficient vehicle design. To alleviate these limitations, network models are proposed as an alternative representation in this paper. These models enable the analysis of structure, behaviour, and patterns of interactions, facilitating an understanding of knock-on effects across disciplines and subsystems. The terminology, benefits, and capabilities of network theory in early-stage vehicle design are presented in this paper, along with the aspects to consider and methods for developing network models. The applicability of network theory metrics and algorithms is demonstrated using a railway traction system example. Results indicate that the proposed representations can capture complex system knock-on effects across disciplines and subsystems.

Nyckelord
knock-on effects, early-stage design, rail vehicle design, network theory, subsystem interactions, traction system
Nationell ämneskategori
Farkost och rymdteknik
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-346603 (URN)
Konferens
The Sixth International Conference on Railway Technology: Research, Development and Maintenance, 1-5 September 2024 Prague, Czech Republic
Anmärkning

QC 20240529

Tillgänglig från: 2024-05-20 Skapad: 2024-05-20 Senast uppdaterad: 2025-09-18Bibliografiskt granskad
3. Network theory and global sensitivity analysis framework for navigating insights from complex multidisciplinary models
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Network theory and global sensitivity analysis framework for navigating insights from complex multidisciplinary models
2024 (Engelska)Ingår i: IEEE Access, E-ISSN 2169-3536, Vol. 12, s. 157201-157217Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

In conventional vehicle design approaches, there is typically little understanding of the consequences of early stage design choices. This may be attributed to the conventional approach’s limitation in capturing complex interactions, further leading to increased design iterations. To overcome this, holistic multidisciplinary models were developed. However, they introduce the burden of complexity and costs because of their intricate nature. Furthermore, it is challenging to gain meaningful insights without a deeper understanding of the model’s nature and structure. Therefore, in this article, an alternative form of model representation was proposed to address these shortcomings. This was achieved by integrating two concepts: network theory and sensitivity analysis. A detailed and robust framework that represents complex multidisciplinary models as network models, reduce their complexity, and navigate insights from them, was provided. This is further demonstrated by a case study of a rail vehicle traction system including a traction motor and an inverter coupled with operational drive cycle. Among the identified 246 factors in the traction system network model, the three most influential inputs were identified for the chosen output factor of interest. Subsequently, the knock-on effects of these inputs were determined. The results indicate a significant reduction in the network graph size compared with the complete network graph of the traction system model. This indicated a significant reduction in the number of factors to consider in the analysis. This demonstrates the capability of the proposed framework to reduce the complexity of the analysis while retaining the ability to analyze intricate interaction effects.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 2024
Nyckelord
Multidiscipline models, Global Sensitivity Analysis, Network models, Metamodels, Path analysis, Knock-on effects
Nationell ämneskategori
Farkost och rymdteknik
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-355055 (URN)10.1109/ACCESS.2024.3486358 (DOI)001346629000001 ()2-s2.0-85208686448 (Scopus ID)
Anmärkning

QC 20241119

Tillgänglig från: 2024-10-21 Skapad: 2024-10-21 Senast uppdaterad: 2025-09-18Bibliografiskt granskad
4. Quantifying knock-on effects and total impact of design choices via Combined Sensitivity Analysis and Structural Equation Modeling techniques
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Quantifying knock-on effects and total impact of design choices via Combined Sensitivity Analysis and Structural Equation Modeling techniques
2025 (Engelska)Ingår i: IEEE Access, E-ISSN 2169-3536, Vol. 13, s. 149230-149246Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

 Vehicles are complex systems composed of interdependent subsystems, where a change in one component can propagate through others, causing knock-on effects and impacting overall performance. This interconnected nature makes early-stage design challenging due to limited knowledge of the consequences of design choices. Existing tools address different aspects of this gap in isolation and typically do not quantify the cascading changes i.e., knock-on effects or the total impact of an input on the output, highlighting the need for an integrated approach. This paper addresses these limitations by proposing a framework to quantify the magnitude and direction of the knock-on effects and consequently calculate the total impact by integrating curve fitting, sensitivity analysis, and structural equation modeling. This framework derives representative functions, quantifies the influence between every interacting factor pair, and calculates the total impact. To demonstrate the framework, a rail traction system is used as case study. Results indicate that while rated power had comparatively less impact on the output than frequency, rated power had 6 times as many paths and 1.86 times as many vertices as frequency, indicating higher knock-on effects. To validate the structural model, for each input and output, the total impact value was compared with the direct sensitivity coefficient, yielding a maximum error of 3%. Additionally, comparison with results of Global Sensitivity Analysis confirmed consistent input rankings and influence directions. This demonstrates the framework’s capability to quantify knock-on effects and total impact while preserving true input-output relationships.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 2025
Nyckelord
Early-Stage Design, Global Sensitivity Analysis, Local Sensitivity Analysis, Network Theory, Structural Equation Modeling
Nationell ämneskategori
Farkost och rymdteknik
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-368970 (URN)10.1109/ACCESS.2025.3602720 (DOI)001561064600002 ()2-s2.0-105014412195 (Scopus ID)
Anmärkning

QC 20250829

Tillgänglig från: 2025-08-24 Skapad: 2025-08-24 Senast uppdaterad: 2025-09-18Bibliografiskt granskad
5. Passive cooling modelling on train electronic systems
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Passive cooling modelling on train electronic systems
2025 (Engelska)Ingår i: Machines, E-ISSN 2075-1702, Vol. 13, nr 9, artikel-id 788Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

The advent of silicon carbide (SiC) semiconductors in electric traction enables several benefits, including the shift to passive cooling. However, it requires a conjugate heat transfer analysis to understand the temperature distribution and variation. While steady-state solutions exist, transient conditions in rail vehicles remain challenging. This paper develops two analytical models to predict temperature distribution and variation, validated against numerical simulations. An electric motor model estimates power losses in the converter, defining heat dissipation. The complete model is tested under realistic drive cycles, linking operational conditions to power losses and free flow speed. The results show the model effectively captures temperature variations, with higher losses during acceleration and larger temperature surges of around 70 K at lower speeds. Furthermore, the temperature at the junction was observed to be 20 K higher than at the base position and to exceed 420 K at a more downstream location. Thus, the proposed method captures the temperature variations considering different physical effects with reasonable accuracy and significantly faster computation times than transient numerical simulations.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
MDPI AG, 2025
Nyckelord
Passive cooling, IGBT, Inverters, Trains, Coupling
Nationell ämneskategori
Farkost och rymdteknik
Forskningsämne
Farkostteknik
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-337387 (URN)10.3390/machines13090788 (DOI)
Anmärkning

QC 20231004

Tillgänglig från: 2023-10-02 Skapad: 2023-10-02 Senast uppdaterad: 2025-09-18Bibliografiskt granskad
6. Analysing the impact of motor design on inverter thermal behaviour using network-based sensitivity analysis
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Analysing the impact of motor design on inverter thermal behaviour using network-based sensitivity analysis
2025 (Engelska)Konferensbidrag, Publicerat paper (Refereegranskat)
Abstract [en]

Vehicles are complex systems composed of multiple interdependent subsystems. A design change in one subsystem can lead to either beneficial or detrimental effects on others, making it essential to understand how design choices propagate through the system. This paper focuses on the traction chain in rail vehicles, specifically the interaction between two critical subsystems: the traction motor and the inverter. Since the inverter supplies the current and voltage required by the motor, changes in motor design can affect the inverter’s thermal behaviour. We analyse this interaction to understand how motor design influences the temperature evolution of inverter power electronic components. To achieve this, we apply a framework that integrates network theory, structural equation modelling (SEM), and sensitivity analysis. First, analytical models of a three-phase induction motor and an inverter thermal model are developed. A reverse breadth-first search is used to identify all input parameters that influence the inverter temperature. Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) isolates the most influential inputs, enabling the construction of a reduced network graph. Then, SEM and local sensitivity analysis (LSA) are applied to quantify the relationship between motor design parameters and inverter temperature, yielding a coefficient that captures the strength of the dependency. This approach provides an alternative representation of the multidisciplinary interactions between subsystems. It also helps identify key change propagation paths, making it easier for designers to anticipate and manage the consequences of design changes. By reducing analytical complexity and clarifying subsystem interdependencies, the framework supports more efficient early-stage design, potentially reducing the number of iterations needed to reach a satisfactory solution.

Nationell ämneskategori
Farkost och rymdteknik
Forskningsämne
Farkostteknik
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-369844 (URN)
Konferens
Resource Efficient Vehicles 2025
Anmärkning

QC 20250917

Tillgänglig från: 2025-09-15 Skapad: 2025-09-15 Senast uppdaterad: 2025-09-18Bibliografiskt granskad

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