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Continuous Balancing of Power Systems With High Shares of Wind and Solar Power: Methods for Estimation of Needs and Efficient Use of Balancing Services in Future Electricity Markets
KTH, Skolan för elektroteknik och datavetenskap (EECS), Elektroteknik, Elkraftteknik.ORCID-id: 0000-0002-2789-0096
2025 (Engelska)Doktorsavhandling, sammanläggning (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]

Transmission System Operators (TSOs) are responsible for maintaining the continuous balance in power systems, ensuring that intended electricity production matches demand in real time. To achieve this, they procure balancing services, i.e., resources that can adjust their production or consumption in response to system needs. The growing shares of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) sources increase the operational uncertainty and variability, creating new challenges related to continuous balancing. At the same time, emerging flexible technologies and stronger European cooperation offer new opportunities to address these challenges. These developments make the efficient use and design of balancing services in VRE-dominated systems an urgent research topic. This thesis presents a series of research works focusing on the future needs for, and efficient use of, balancing services in power systems with high shares of wind and solar power.

The thesis first presents a comparative analysis of continuous balancing strategies in six power systems with ambitious VRE targets. The findings indicate that there appears to be no single solution to continuous balancing at high VRE shares, and that a broad set of technologies needs to contribute to the future continuous balancing.

Then, the Power Imbalance Model (PIM) is introduced as a new simulation framework for generating 1-minute resolution power imbalance scenarios. By using economic dispatch results as input data, PIM generates imbalance scenarios by detailed modelling of power system technologies, enabling both long-term assessment of balancing needs and generation of realistic input data for operational mechanisms.

Next, the thesis evaluates the benefits of a dynamic dimensioning approach for Frequency Restoration Reserves (FRR) in the Nordic area, using a newly developed FRR dimensioning model that incorporates chance-constrained optimization and PIM data. The results demonstrate that dynamic dimensioning adapts reserve requirements to operating conditions more efficiently, maintaining the operational reliability at the desired level.

Thereafter, a new market clearing mechanism for the Nordic manual FRR (mFRR) capacity market is proposed. By accounting for both capacity and expected activation costs, the mechanism yields considerable cost savings compared to current practices. The resulting optimization problem is efficiently solved with a tailored decomposition algorithm.

Finally, a stochastic optimization model for system cost-minimizing Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) scheduling is developed. This model is applied to analyze the impact of new requirements on Limited Energy Reservoir (LER) technologies providing Frequency Containment Reserves (FCR). Results indicate that such requirements considerably reduce the BESSs' FCR provision.

Overall, the thesis advances both the modeling tools and the design of operational mechanisms needed to ensure a reliable and cost-efficient continuous balancing of future European power systems with high VRE shares.

Abstract [sv]

Systemansvariga för transmissionsnät (TSO:er) ansvarar för att upprätthålla den kontinuerliga balansen i elsystem genom att säkerställa att den planerade elproduktionen motsvarar efterfrågan i realtid. För att uppnå detta upphandlar de balanstjänster, det vill säga resurser som kan justera sin produktion eller konsumtion efter systemets behov. En högre andel av variabla förnybara energikällor (VRE) ökar osäkerheten och variabiliteten i driften, vilket skapar nya utmaningar kopplade till den kontinuerliga balanseringen. Samtidigt erbjuder nya flexibla teknologier och ett starkare europeiskt samarbete nya möjligheter att möta dessa utmaningar. Dessa trender gör den effektiva användningen och utformningen av balanstjänster i VRE-dominerade system till ett viktigt forskningsområde. Denna avhandling presenterar en rad forskningsarbeten med fokus på framtida behov av, och effektiv användning av, balanstjänster i elsystem med höga andelar vind- och solkraft.

Avhandlingen presenterar först en jämförande analys av strategier för kontinuerlig balansering i sex elsystem som strävar mot en hög andel variabla förnybara energikällor. Resultaten visar att det inte verkar finnas någon enskild lösning för kontinuerlig balansering i dessa typer av elsystem och att ett brett spektrum av teknologier behöver bidra till den framtida kontinuerliga balanseringen.

Därefter introduceras Power Imbalance Model (PIM) som ett nytt simuleringsramverk för att generera effektobalansscenarier med en tidsupplösning på en minut. Genom att använda resultat från ekonomisk lastfördelning som indata genererar PIM obalansscenarier genom detaljerad modellering av elsystemets teknologier, vilket möjliggör både långsiktiga bedömningar av balanseringsbehov och generering av realistisk indata till driftrelaterade mekanismer.

Nästa del av avhandlingen utvärderar fördelarna med en dynamisk dimensioneringsmetod för frekvensåterställningsreserver (FRR) i Norden, med hjälp av en nyutvecklad FRR-dimensioneringsmodell som bygger på sannolikhetsbegränsad optimering och PIM-data. Resultaten visar att dynamisk dimensionering bättre anpassar reservbehoven till rådande driftförhållanden, vilket gör att driftsäkerheten hålls på den eftersträvade nivån.

Därefter föreslås en ny marknadsklareringsmekanism för den nordiska kapacitetsmarknaden för manuell FRR (mFRR). Genom att beakta både kapacitetskostnader och förväntade aktiveringskostnader kan mekanismen leda till betydande kostnadsbesparingar jämfört med nuvarande praxis. Det motsvarande optimeringsproblemet löses effektivt med en specifikt anpassad lösningsalgoritm.

Slutligen utvecklas en stokastisk optimeringsmodell för systemkostnadsminimerande driftplanering av batterisystem. Modellen används för att analysera effekten av nya krav på teknologier med en begränsad energireserv som tillhandahåller frekvenshållningsreserver (FCR). Resultaten visar att sådana krav avsevärt minskar batterisystems levererade FCR-volymer. 

Sammanfattningsvis bidrar avhandlingen med både nya modelleringsverktyg och utformning av nya driftrelaterade mekanismer, vilka behövs för att säkerställa en tillförlitlig och kostnadseffektiv kontinuerlig balansering av framtida europeiska elsystem med höga andelar VRE-resurser.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2025. , s. xv, 126
Serie
TRITA-EECS-AVL ; 2025:79
Nyckelord [en]
Electricity Markets, Power System Balancing, Variable Renewable Energy, Balancing Services, Frequency Containment Reserve, Automatic and Manual Frequency Restoration Reserves, Imbalance Simulation, Reserve Dimensioning, Reserve Capacity Markets, Battery Scheduling, Stochastic Optimization, MILP, Decomposition Algorithms
Nyckelord [sv]
Elmarknader, Kraftsystembalansering, Variabel Förnybar Energi, Balanstjänster, Frekvenshållningsreserv, Automatisk och Manuell Frekvensåterställningsreserv, Obalanssimulering, Reservdimensionering, Reservkapacitetsmarknader, Driftplanering av Batterier, Stokastisk Optimering, MILP, Nedbrytningsalgoritmer
Nationell ämneskategori
Energisystem Annan elektroteknik och elektronik
Forskningsämne
Elektro- och systemteknik
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-371387ISBN: 978-91-8106-379-0 (tryckt)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-371387DiVA, id: diva2:2005312
Disputation
2025-11-10, https://kth-se.zoom.us/s/61811645829, Kollegiesalen, Brinellvägen 8, Stockholm, 10:00 (Engelska)
Opponent
Handledare
Forskningsfinansiär
Energimyndigheten, 51292-1Svenska Kraftnät, 51292-1
Anmärkning

QC 20251010

Tillgänglig från: 2025-10-10 Skapad: 2025-10-09 Senast uppdaterad: 2025-10-20Bibliografiskt granskad
Delarbeten
1. Strategies for Continuous Balancing in Future Power Systems with High Wind and Solar Shares
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Strategies for Continuous Balancing in Future Power Systems with High Wind and Solar Shares
Visa övriga...
2023 (Engelska)Ingår i: Energies, E-ISSN 1996-1073, Vol. 16, nr 14, artikel-id 5249Artikel, forskningsöversikt (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

The use of wind power has grown strongly in recent years and is expected to continue to increase in the coming decades. Solar power is also expected to increase significantly. In a power system, a continuous balance is maintained between total production and demand. This balancing is currently mainly managed with conventional power plants, but with larger amounts of wind and solar power, other sources will also be needed. Interesting possibilities include continuous control of wind and solar power, battery storage, electric vehicles, hydrogen production, and other demand resources with flexibility potential. The aim of this article is to describe and compare the different challenges and future possibilities in six systems concerning how to keep a continuous balance in the future with significantly larger amounts of variable renewable power production. A realistic understanding of how these systems plan to handle continuous balancing is central to effectively develop a carbon-dioxide-free electricity system of the future. The systems included in the overview are the Nordic synchronous area, the island of Ireland, the Iberian Peninsula, Texas (ERCOT), the central European system, and Great Britain.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
MDPI AG, 2023
Nyckelord
balancing services, continuous balancing, frequency control, renewable power system, wind power, solar power
Nationell ämneskategori
Elektroteknik och elektronik
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-334330 (URN)10.3390/en16145249 (DOI)001038723400001 ()2-s2.0-85166238130 (Scopus ID)
Anmärkning

QC 20230818

Tillgänglig från: 2023-08-18 Skapad: 2023-08-18 Senast uppdaterad: 2025-10-09Bibliografiskt granskad
2. Continuous power imbalance assessment from multi-area economic dispatch models
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Continuous power imbalance assessment from multi-area economic dispatch models
2024 (Engelska)Ingår i: Renewable energy, ISSN 0960-1481, E-ISSN 1879-0682, Vol. 225, artikel-id 120277Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

To be able to efficiently maintain a continuous balance between supply and demand in power systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, a variety of studies related to the topic are needed. A fundamental input parameter for such studies is an assessment of the power system's physical needs for balancing power, in form of power imbalances. This article presents a new model for simulating physical power imbalances with a 1-minute time resolution based on multi-area economic dispatch simulations. Compared to existing models with the same purpose, the new model includes the combination of simulating power imbalances with 1-minute time resolution, simulating forecast uncertainty, simulating the continuous behaviour of all power system components and simulating the transmission for netting of power imbalances between balancing areas. By applying the model to a case study of the Nordic synchronous power system in year 2045, the impact of including these features in the model is highlighted. Case study results also show that the size and pattern of power imbalances much depends on the characteristics of a balancing area, in terms of electricity demand, available generation technologies and interconnections to other balancing areas.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Elsevier Ltd, 2024
Nyckelord
Balancing services, Economic dispatch, Future scenarios, Multi-area power system, Power imbalances
Nationell ämneskategori
Annan elektroteknik och elektronik
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-344596 (URN)10.1016/j.renene.2024.120277 (DOI)001206853100001 ()2-s2.0-85187224508 (Scopus ID)
Anmärkning

QC 20240325

Tillgänglig från: 2024-03-20 Skapad: 2024-03-20 Senast uppdaterad: 2025-10-09Bibliografiskt granskad
3. Assessing potential benefits of dynamic frequency restoration reserve dimensioning in multi-area power systems
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Assessing potential benefits of dynamic frequency restoration reserve dimensioning in multi-area power systems
2025 (Engelska)Ingår i: Electric power systems research, ISSN 0378-7796, E-ISSN 1873-2046, Vol. 247, artikel-id 111807Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

This article investigates the potential benefits of dynamic Frequency Restoration Reserve (FRR) allocation and dimensioning in a multi-area context, focusing on the Nordic Load-Frequency Control block. Emphasis is placed on how the available information impacts the FRR dimensioning. To assess the potential benefits, a model for multi-area FRR dimensioning is proposed, applicable to both static and dynamic dimensioning approaches. The proposed FRR dimensioning model includes a new application of a methodology to simulate imbalance scenarios and sequentially dimensions FRR capacity for reference incidents and normal imbalances. The main benefit of dynamic FRR dimensioning is that the need for FRR capacity is continuously updated according to the expected short-term operating conditions, such that the daily reliability level is always close to the desired reliability level. Case study results show that dynamic FRR dimensioning can lead to a reduction in total reserve needs compared to a static approach. This reduction is significantly larger if FRR is dimensioned after the clearing of the day-ahead market.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Elsevier BV, 2025
Nyckelord
Chance-constrained optimization, Dynamic dimensioning, Frequency Restoration Reserves (FRR), Imbalance simulation, Multi-area power system
Nationell ämneskategori
Annan elektroteknik och elektronik
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-364154 (URN)10.1016/j.epsr.2025.111807 (DOI)001504561100001 ()2-s2.0-105005833034 (Scopus ID)
Anmärkning

QC 20250605

Tillgänglig från: 2025-06-04 Skapad: 2025-06-04 Senast uppdaterad: 2025-10-09Bibliografiskt granskad
4. Efficient market clearing for mFRR capacity with stochastic activation costs and nested decomposition
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Efficient market clearing for mFRR capacity with stochastic activation costs and nested decomposition
(Engelska)Manuskript (preprint) (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]

This paper presents a novel market clearing mechanism for manual Frequency Restoration Reserve (mFRR) capacity markets, focusing on the Nordic market setup. The proposed market clearing mechanism accounts for both expected energy activation costs and mFRR capacity costs. The market clearing problem is formulated as a two-stage stochastic Mixed Integer Linear Program (MILP). To efficiently solve the resulting optimization problem, we introduce a nested decomposition algorithm that combines the Benders Decomposition (BD) and Surrogate Absolute Value Lagrangian Relaxation(SAVLR) methods. For practical implementation, input data scenarios aregenerated using day-ahead (DA) price data modeled by a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN). A real-world case study in Sweden demonstrates that theproposed mechanism can reduce daily mFRR costs by 600-14,500 €. Simulation results further show that the nested decomposition algorithm converges to a near-optimal solution more quickly than standard BD.

Nyckelord
mFRR capacity market, stochastic programming, MILP, Benders decomposition, Surrogate absolute value Lagrangian relaxation, Bayesian neural network
Nationell ämneskategori
Elkraftsystem och -komponenter
Forskningsämne
Elektro- och systemteknik
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-371356 (URN)
Anmärkning

QC 20251009

Tillgänglig från: 2025-10-09 Skapad: 2025-10-09 Senast uppdaterad: 2025-10-09Bibliografiskt granskad
5. System cost-minimizing scheduling of battery energy storage systems providing energy and balancing services
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>System cost-minimizing scheduling of battery energy storage systems providing energy and balancing services
2025 (Engelska)Ingår i: Sustainable Energy, Grids and Networks, E-ISSN 2352-4677, Vol. 43, artikel-id 101820Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

To ensure that battery energy storage systems (BESSs) are used to facilitate the operation of power systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, new policies for BESSs are currently being designed. This paper presents a new model for the system cost-minimizing scheduling of BESSs providing energy and balancing services, which can be used as a policy-evaluation tool and as a benchmark for evaluating current market performance. The model is based on a stochastic optimization problem, which we suggest solving using an algorithm combining Benders Decomposition (BD) and Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming (SDDP). In this paper, we apply the model to study how the system cost-minimal scheduling of BESSs in Sweden is impacted by new requirements for Limited Energy Reservoir (LER) resources providing Frequency Containment Reserves (FCR). Case study results show that new requirements related to guaranteeing a minimum full activation time significantly impact the operation of BESSs, reducing the provision of upregulating FCR capacity for disturbances (FCR-D up) by over 60 %. Also, the case study results show that the consideration of BESSs’ degradation costs reduces the provision of energy as well as balancing services from BESSs. The daily discharged energy from BESSs is more than 85 % lower if the degradation costs are considered, compared to if they are not considered.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Elsevier BV, 2025
Nyckelord
Battery energy storage systems, Benders decomposition, Frequency containment reserve (FCR), Stochastic dual dynamic programming (SDDP), Stochastic optimization
Nationell ämneskategori
Annan elektroteknik och elektronik Energiteknik
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-368573 (URN)10.1016/j.segan.2025.101820 (DOI)001542835700003 ()2-s2.0-105011984390 (Scopus ID)
Anmärkning

QC 20250820

Tillgänglig från: 2025-08-20 Skapad: 2025-08-20 Senast uppdaterad: 2025-10-09Bibliografiskt granskad
6. Estimating the Future Need of Balancing Power Based on Long-Term Power System Market Simulations
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Estimating the Future Need of Balancing Power Based on Long-Term Power System Market Simulations
2022 (Engelska)Ingår i: In proceedings of the 11th Bulk Power Systems Dynamics and Control Symposium (IREP 2022), July 25-30, 2022, Banff, Canada, 2022, s. 1-14, artikel-id IREP2022-7Konferensbidrag, Publicerat paper (Refereegranskat)
Abstract [en]

With increasing penetration of variable renewable energy sources (vRES) and a higher rate of electrification in the society, there will be future challenges in maintaining a continuous balance between electricity supply and demand. To investigate the possibility of different technologies to provide balancing services, to dimension future balancing services and design technical requirements for future balancing services, the future need of balancing power must first be known. Future power systems are often analysed by performing simulations capturing the energy produced, consumed or transmitted for different power system components with resolution of one trading period (TP), here called TP energy simulations. However, these simulations do not fully capture the continuous intra-TP power balance that must be kept at every time instance. In this paper, we propose a model to perform high-resolution intra-TP simulations to estimate the need of balancing power based on TP energy simulations. The model is applied to the Swedish system operator (SO) Svenska kraftnät's TP energy simulations of a scenario with high vRES penetration and a highly electrified society in year 2045. The results show that a considerable need of balancing power will occur frequently, where faster ramping of components tend to increase the need of balancing power while assuming that the transmission reliability margin (TRM) is used to net imbalances clearly decreases the need of balancing power.

Nationell ämneskategori
Annan elektroteknik och elektronik
Forskningsämne
Elektro- och systemteknik; Energiteknik
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-316380 (URN)10.48550/arXiv.2207.04683 (DOI)
Konferens
IREP 2022
Anmärkning

QC 20220818

Tillgänglig från: 2022-08-16 Skapad: 2022-08-16 Senast uppdaterad: 2025-10-09Bibliografiskt granskad
7. Minute Resolution Multi-Area Wind Power Simulation to Estimate Future Reserve Needs
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Minute Resolution Multi-Area Wind Power Simulation to Estimate Future Reserve Needs
2023 (Engelska)Ingår i: 2023 IEEE BELGRADE POWERTECH, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) , 2023Konferensbidrag, Publicerat paper (Refereegranskat)
Abstract [en]

Increasing penetration of wind power poses challenges to power system balancing due to the uncertainty and variability of wind power generation. In wind integration studies, it is hence important to consider the need of balancing power caused by wind power. In this paper, we propose a new model to simulate minute resolution wind power time series in multi-area power systems, that allows for estimation of the additional need of reserves caused by wind power in future scenarios. The model is based on first simulating forecast uncertainty using a multidimensional autoregressive moving average model, and then simulating the variability by adding an autoregressive time series to a cubic spline interpolation. The model is found to generate scenarios of minute resolution wind power generation that are sufficiently realistic for long-term scenario studies. The model output can be used for analysing future reserve requirements or for scenario generation for stochastic optimisation of future power systems.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 2023
Nyckelord
Wind power, Forecast error simulation, Minute resolution, Future scenarios, Power system reserves
Nationell ämneskategori
Annan elektroteknik och elektronik
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-338156 (URN)10.1109/POWERTECH55446.2023.10202966 (DOI)001055072600288 ()2-s2.0-85159225407 (Scopus ID)
Konferens
IEEE Belgrade PowerTech Conference, JUN 25-29, 2023, Belgrade, SERBIA
Anmärkning

Part of ISBN 978-1-6654-8778-8

QC 20231016

Tillgänglig från: 2023-10-16 Skapad: 2023-10-16 Senast uppdaterad: 2025-10-09Bibliografiskt granskad
8. On the Sequential Reserve Dimensioning for a Multi-Area Power System: Nordic Case Study
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>On the Sequential Reserve Dimensioning for a Multi-Area Power System: Nordic Case Study
2023 (Engelska)Ingår i: Proceedings of 2023 IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Europe, ISGT EUROPE 2023, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) , 2023Konferensbidrag, Publicerat paper (Refereegranskat)
Abstract [en]

This paper presents a sequential dimensioning methodology for frequency restoration reserves in a multi-area power system based on chance-constrained optimization. In the first stage, the reserves to handle the reference incident in each area are dimensioned. Then, the transmission network usage for providing these reserves is calculated and the remaining transfer capacity is used in the next stage where the reserves to handle normal imbalances are dimensioned. The optimization problem in each stage seeks to allocate reserves such that the total volumes of reserves and the line flows are co-optimized. Reserves are dimensioned for four seasons instead of the current static approach with yearly dimensioning. By adjusting the reserve requirements based on the system’s needs, the total reserves are reduced. Also, the results demonstrate high potential in sharing reserves among bidding zones in the Nordic synchronous area.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 2023
Nyckelord
Balancing market, chance-constrained, cross-zonal capacity, Frequency restoration reserve, Nordic electricity market
Nationell ämneskategori
Annan elektroteknik och elektronik
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-344028 (URN)10.1109/ISGTEUROPE56780.2023.10407346 (DOI)2-s2.0-85185228668 (Scopus ID)
Konferens
2023 IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Europe, ISGT EUROPE 2023, Grenoble, France, Oct 23 2023 - Oct 26 2023
Anmärkning

QC 20240229

Part of ISBN 979-8-3503-9678-2

Tillgänglig från: 2024-02-28 Skapad: 2024-02-28 Senast uppdaterad: 2025-10-09Bibliografiskt granskad

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