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Maintenance and management of municipal street pavements in northern Sweden: Practices, challenges and performance models
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Building Materials. Department of Streets and Roads, Skellefteå Municipality, 931 85 Skellefteå, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0009-0008-5136-5735
2025 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Sustainable development
SDG 9: Industry, innovation and infrastructure, SDG 11: Sustainable cities and communities, SDG 12: Responsible consumption and production
Abstract [en]

An effective municipal street network is essential for regional development, supporting mobility and public utilities, and requires optimal maintenance strategies for efficient use of public funds. This research, focused on northern Sweden, aims to enhance municipal street maintenance by integrating sustainability frameworks, current practices, and pavement performance modelling through five complementary studies.

The Sustainability National Road Administrations (SUNRA) framework was adapted for both Swedish Transport Administration (STA) road projects and municipal street maintenance. Findings show it can be effectively applied during planning for investment, maintenance, and construction or reconstruction projects.

Insights from a survey of Swedish municipalities highlighted pavement maintenance practices and challenges. Common pavement distresses included potholes, uneven surfaces, and alligator cracking. These were mainly caused by pavement ageing, heavy traffic, and patching. Cold climate and population density were additional factors. Automated pavement data collection, commercial pavement management systems (PMS), and performance models were rarely used. The windshield method, however, remained common. Northern and densely populated municipalities allocated higher budgets to pavement maintenance and rehabilitation.

Two machine learning (ML) studies and one sigmoid deterioration modelling study predicted the pavement condition index (PCI) over time using manually collected data from Skellefteå Municipality (2014, 2018, 2022). Both ML studies tested linear regression (LR), random forest (RF), and neural network (NN) algorithms, with RF achieving the highest prediction accuracy. Pavement age was the most important variable in the first study. The second study, using extended datasets with maintenance treatment categories, slightly improved predictions. Key variables for predicting the 2022 PCI included previous status (2018) and weighted distress.

Sigmoid deterioration curves captured non-residential street deterioration effectively but were less accurate for residential streets, probably due to variable pavement age and frequent utility cuts. Similarly, curves for pavements treated with surface levelling (SL) and special treatments (ST) performed best, while milling and resurfacing (MR) provided a balanced cost-performance outcome.

These findings support data-driven decision-making and optimized municipal street maintenance. Further evaluation using data from multiple municipalities, including automated collection methods and climate factors, is recommended.

Abstract [sv]

Ett välfungerande kommunalt gatunät är en grundförutsättning för regional utveckling, då det möjliggör både mobilitet och tillgång till kommunal infrastruktur och samhällstjänster. För att uppnå detta på ett effektivt sätt behöver man införa optimala underhållsstrategier som medför att man använder tillgänglig budget på ett effektivt sätt. Avhandlingen undersöker hur kommuner i Sverige underhåller och sköter sina gator och hur detta kan förbättras. Studien har inventerat tillämpningen av hållbarhetsprinciper, nuvarande metoder för underhåll och förvaltning av gatunätet samt modeller för att förutsäga gatans skick. Forskningen består av fem delstudier, där varje studie tillför separata insikter.

Sustainability National Road Administrations (SUNRA) – hållbarhetsbedömningsverktyget – anpassades för både Trafikverkets vägprojekt och kommunalt gatunderhåll. Resultaten visar att verktyget enkelt kan användas och anpassas under planeringen av investeringar, underhåll samt nybyggnation eller ombyggnation av gator.

Som en del av studien skickades en enkät till samtliga 290 svenska kommuner för att samla information om arbetssätt och utmaningar inom kommunalt gatuunderhåll. Resultaten visar att de vanligaste gatubeläggningsskadorna inkluderade potthål, ojämnheter och krackelering där den vanligaste orsaken är åldrande beläggning, tung trafik och asfaltlappning (dvs. reparation av enskilda skador). Kallt klimat och hög befolkningstäthet är också betydande faktorer som bidrar till beläggningens nedbrytning av gatunätet. Användning av objektiva automatiska metoder för insamling av gatubeläggningars tillstånd med vägytemätningsfordon samt kommersiella PMS (vägförvaltningssystem) är mycket begränsad. Istället används främst subjektiva okulära besiktningsmetoder vid bedömningen av gatunätets tillstånd bland de kommuner som använder PMS. Budgettilldelningen för underhåll och ombyggnad av gatunätet är högre i de norra regionerna i landet samt i tätbefolkade kommuner.

Två maskininlärningsstudier (ML) samt en studie med sigmoid nedbrytningsmodellering har utförts för att förutsäga beläggningstillståndsindex (PCI) över tid. Studierna baserades på subjektiv data okulärt insamlade om beläggningstillståndet av gatunätet (2014, 2018 och 2022) från Skellefteå kommun. Båda ML-studierna testade linjär regression (LR), random forest (RF) och neurala nätverk (NN) algoritmer, där RF konsekvent gav bäst resultat. Beläggningens ålder var den viktigaste variabeln i den första studien. I den fördjupade studien presterades modeller med utökade variabler avsevärt bättre än de som endast använde ålder. De viktigaste förklarande variablerna för att förutsäga PCI 2022 var status värdet innan samt de viktade skadetalen.

Sigmoiddeterioreringskurvor fångade effektivt nedbrytningen av icke-bostadsgator, men var mindre exakta för bostadsgator, sannolikt på grund av varierande beläggningsålder och frekventa ledningsgrävningar. Kurvor för beläggningar behandlade med ytjämning (SL) och specialbehandlingar (ST) gav bäst resultat, medan fräsning och nybeläggning (MR) gav en balanserad kostnad-prestanda-effekt.

Studien stödjer datadrivet beslutsfattande och optimerat kommunalt gatubeläggningsunderhåll. Modellerna rekommenderas att vidareutvärderas med data från flera kommuner, inklusive automatiserade datainsamlingsmetoder och klimatfaktorer.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2025. , p. 107
Series
TRITA-ABE-DLT ; 2529
Series
ISBN ; 978-91-8106-401-8
Keywords [en]
Municipalities, maintenance, street network, cold climate, pavement management systems, pavement condition index, prediction models, machine learning, random forest, neural network, linear regression, sigmoid model
Keywords [sv]
Kommuner, underhåll, gatunät, kallt klimat, vägförvaltningssystem, beläggningstillståndsindex, nedbrytningsmodeller, maskininlärning, random forest, neuralt nätverk, linjär regression, sigmoidmodell
National Category
Infrastructure Engineering
Research subject
Civil and Architectural Engineering, Building Materials
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-372081OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-372081DiVA, id: diva2:2010066
Public defence
2025-11-21, Kollegiesalen, Brinellvägen 8, KTH Campus, public video conference link https://kth-se.zoom.us/j/67258935998, Stockholm, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Note

Research funders:

Skellefteå municipality

Mistra InfraMaint Project 1.8 (DIA 2016/28)

QC 20251029

Available from: 2025-10-29 Created: 2025-10-29 Last updated: 2025-10-29Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Development of the SUNRA Tool to Improve Regional and Local Sustainability of the Transportation Sector
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Development of the SUNRA Tool to Improve Regional and Local Sustainability of the Transportation Sector
Show others...
2022 (English)In: Sustainability, E-ISSN 2071-1050, Vol. 14, no 18, p. 11275-, article id 11275Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

To fulfil the global sustainable development goals (SDGs), achieving sustainable development is becoming urgent, not least in the transportation sector. In response to this, the sustainability framework Sustainability National Road Administrations (SUNRA) was developed to contribute to improving the sustainability performance of national road administrations across Europe. In the present study, the framework has been tested, applied and further developed to be applicable for target setting and follow-up at the project level at both the Swedish Transport Administration (STA) and at municipal levels. The aim was a framework relevant for investment, re-investments, maintenance and operation projects and also to make it more user applicable. The study also investigated how the framework can contribute to sustainability, identified drivers and barriers for applying the framework and examined whether the framework can be applied and adapted to projects of different complexities. The adaptations and developments were done in collaboration between researchers and practitioners. The results show that the framework could easily be used and adapted for investment, re-investment, maintenance and operation projects in the planning stage, as well as for small municipal establishments, construction or reconstruction of residential areas and frequent maintenance. The framework contributes to increased awareness on sustainability, and it provides a common structure and transparency on how infrastructure project goals/targets are set and fulfilled. The framework can also be applied to follow the fulfilment of the goals/targets and thereby adapt the project to better fulfil the goals. Identified barriers include the lack of obligations and lack of experience in using sustainability frameworks.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
MDPI AG, 2022
Keywords
sustainability framework, setting targets, project level, sustainable transport infrastructure management, user adaptation, sustainability follow-up tool
National Category
Environmental Sciences Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-319749 (URN)10.3390/su141811275 (DOI)000857039300001 ()2-s2.0-85138898244 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20221007

Available from: 2022-10-07 Created: 2022-10-07 Last updated: 2025-10-29Bibliographically approved
2. Municipal street maintenance challenges and management practices in Sweden
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Municipal street maintenance challenges and management practices in Sweden
2023 (English)In: Frontiers in Built Environment, E-ISSN 2297-3362, Vol. 9, article id 1205235Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The municipal street network acts as a multifunctional asset by providing people, vehicles and public services with a well-functioning infrastructure. To keep it in good condition, optimal maintenance measures are required which would result in an efficient use of taxpayers' money. This paper investigates the street network deterioration processes and the management practices that the municipal administrations have applied in Sweden. The study is based on a survey with Swedish municipalities using questionnaires and complementary interviews. The answers provide insight into a wide range of common pavement distresses and deterioration factors, along with pavement management practices. The study identifies that potholes, surface unevenness and alligator cracking are the most cited challenges, while pavement ageing, heavy traffic and patches are the most noted causes. Similarly, the cold climate and population density are influential factors in pavement deterioration. Allocation of the maintenance and rehabilitation and reconstruction budget is higher in the northern part of the country as well as in densely populated municipalities. Condition data collection and use of commercial Pavement Management Systems (PMS) are limited. Addressing the challenges effectively may be possible through the enhancement of the budget, feasible/clear guidelines from municipal councils/politicians, and reducing the gap between street network administrations and utility service providers.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Frontiers Media SA, 2023
Keywords
pavement management systems, road maintenance, municipalities, budget allocation, questionnaire, pavement deterioration, cold climate
National Category
Infrastructure Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-333238 (URN)10.3389/fbuil.2023.1205235 (DOI)001020099900001 ()2-s2.0-85163600171 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20230731

Available from: 2023-07-31 Created: 2023-07-31 Last updated: 2025-10-29Bibliographically approved
3. Predicting Pavement Condition Index Using an ML Approach for a Municipal Street Network
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Predicting Pavement Condition Index Using an ML Approach for a Municipal Street Network
2025 (English)In: Journal of Transportation Engineering Part B: Pavements, E-ISSN 2573-5438, Vol. 151, no 2, article id 04025025Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Machine learning (ML) models are increasingly getting attention in predicting pavement maintenance methods to improve decision-making. This study investigates the use of ML at the municipal level to predict the street pavement condition index (PCI) rating over a 4-year span. Several supervised learning models, namely linear regression (LR), random forest (RF), and neural network (NN), were applied to the visually assessed pavement condition data of Skellefteå municipality, Sweden. Pavement distress, pavement age, and traffic data were used in several combinations to evaluate and compare the performance of the models. The RF model was based on paired variables of pavement age and pavement distress data. The results were comparatively accurate with R2=0.59 and Spearman's coefficient=0.74 for residential streets in the model testing stage. Similarly, for main, collector, and industrial (MCI) streets, the RF model, based on pavement age and traffic variables, performed best with R2=0.79 and Spearman's coefficient=0.88 during the model testing stage. The importance of input variables varies with the level of the model's sophistication and pavement performance goal; however, pavement age is the dominant variable. The prediction models can be useful in effectively managing street networks among municipalities, even those with scarce resources.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2025
Keywords
Machine learning, Municipalities, Pavement condition index, Performance prediction, Random forest, Street maintenance
National Category
Infrastructure Engineering Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-362543 (URN)10.1061/JPEODX.PVENG-1568 (DOI)001472373600015 ()2-s2.0-105002142302 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20250422

Available from: 2025-04-16 Created: 2025-04-16 Last updated: 2025-12-05Bibliographically approved
4. Enhancing Municipal Pavement Condition Predictions Using Machine Learning Models
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Enhancing Municipal Pavement Condition Predictions Using Machine Learning Models
2025 (English)In: article id JRENG-D-25-00186Article in journal (Refereed) Accepted
Abstract [en]

Pavement condition prediction is essential for effective street maintenance. Reliable prediction models enable municipalities to anticipate pavement deterioration and plan maintenance proactively. This paper examines the use of machine learning (ML) models to enhance prediction accuracy for municipal streets. Seventy-two models were developed to predict the 2022 pavement condition index (PCI) using Linear Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF) and Neural Network (NN) algorithms. The study data was collected through windshield surveys in 2014, 2018 and 2022 in Skellefteå Municipality, Sweden. The models were trained and tested separately on the 2018 dataset and the combined 2014 and 2018 datasets, incorporating several combinations of variable sets for residential and non-residential (main, collector, and industrial) streets. Additional models were developed for non-residential streets categorized by maintenance treatments to analyse the predictive capability of the models. RF consistently outperformed other models, with the RF (A+D+S) model achieved the highest accuracy for residential streets, with a marginal improvement using the combined dataset. The RF (A+D+S+T) model performed best for non-residential streets and was also the most robust for pavement segments with surface levelling and milling & resurfacing. Among the variables, WDV (Weighted Distress), Status2018 (the PCI rating based on the 2018 assessment), LAR (longitudinal/transverse cracking), A (pavement age), LT (light traffic), and SU (surface unevenness) were the most significant contributors in the best-performing models. These findings provide municipalities with practical guidance for data-driven maintenance, helping to prioritize interventions and optimize resources. The insights also support informed decisions on maintenance frequency and treatment selection to extend pavement service life.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
KEAI PUBLISHING LTD, 2025
Keywords
Machine learning, Random forest, Pavement condition index, Street maintenance, Municipalities, prediction models, Pavement management.
National Category
Infrastructure Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-372075 (URN)
Funder
Mistra - The Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research, Mistra InfraMaint Project 1.8 (DIA 2016/28)
Note

Accepted by Journal of Road Engineering ISSN 2097-0498  2773-0077

QC 20251028

Available from: 2025-10-23 Created: 2025-10-23 Last updated: 2025-10-29Bibliographically approved
5. Predicting a Pavement Condition Index for Municipal Streets Using a Sigmoid Deterioration Model
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Predicting a Pavement Condition Index for Municipal Streets Using a Sigmoid Deterioration Model
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This study uses a sigmoidal model to predict pavement condition index (PCI) ratings over time for residential and non-residential (main, collector and industrial) streets, based on pavement data acquired from Skellefteå Municipality, Sweden. The dataset includes pavement assessments from 2014, 2018, and 2022, collected through the windshield survey method. The model aims to assess pavement degradation patterns over time across different street categories and various maintenance-treated pavement surfaces. Separate best-fit sigmoid parameters and curves were developed for each category and treatment type. While the model underperformed in predicting PCI ratings for residential streets due to utility cuts and inconsistent pavement age, it predicted PCI ratings for non-residential street conditions more accurately, due to their consistent deterioration patterns. The model's performance also varied across different maintenance-treated pavements. Sigmoid best-fit curves for street pavements treated with surface levelling (SL) and special treatments (ST) achieved the highest accuracy, while the sigmoidal curve for model for milling and resurfacing treated surfaces offered a good cost-performance balance. Maintenance of street pavements using the SL method is cost-effective for early pavement deterioration, but traffic patterns should be considered when selecting treatments. Using sigmoid curves can enhance timely, cost-effective maintenance decisions and reduce the need for reconstruction.

Keywords
Sigmoid model, Pavement condition index, Street maintenance, Municipalities, Performance prediction
National Category
Infrastructure Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-372079 (URN)
Funder
Mistra - The Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research, Mistra InfraMaint Project 1.8 (DIA 2016/28)
Note

QC 20251028

Available from: 2025-10-23 Created: 2025-10-23 Last updated: 2025-10-29Bibliographically approved

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