kth.sePublications KTH
Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Exploring "Many Objective Robust Decision Making" for managing uncertainty in climate policy analysis for the transport sector
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Centres, Integrated Transport Research Lab, ITRL.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7324-6691
VTI, Swedish Natl Rd & Transport Res Inst, Linköping, Sweden.
2025 (English)In: Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives, E-ISSN 2590-1982, Vol. 32, article id 101524Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This study explores the use of Many Objective Robust Decision Making (MORDM) to manage deep uncertainty in transport climate policy analysis. The focus is on policies supporting Sweden's ambition to achieve net-zero emissions by 2045. A case study analysis demonstrating how MORDM can be applied to a simplified policy analysis tool for the Swedish transport sector is performed. Candidate policies are generated using a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm. This algorithm searches for policies that meet the climate target while trying to minimize adverse impacts on driving-based accessibility and limiting the use of biofuels and electricity for a reference scenario for 2040. The candidate policies' robustness and vulnerabilities are then assessed by evaluating them over a set of 10,000 scenarios spanned by deeply uncertain scenario factors and model relationship assumptions. The results highlight tradeoffs among policy objectives within scenarios, as well as tradeoffs in robustness of various policy objectives over the scenario set. For all policies, the main vulnerability in terms of reaching the climate target relates to vehicle electrification rates. However, the MORDM policies do not distinctly outperform policies identified by a previous study by the Swedish Transport Administration applying the same tool. MORDM provides a framework for systematic evaluation of policy robustness and vulnerabilities under varying future uncertainties, something which has not previously been explicitly considered. The study contributes to a better understanding of the trade-offs and dependencies inherent in achieving robust transport climate policies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV , 2025. Vol. 32, article id 101524
Keywords [en]
Transport climate policy, Many-Objective Robust Decision Making (MORDM), Exploratory modeling and analysis (EMA), Robustness analysis, Policy analysis
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-372842DOI: 10.1016/j.trip.2025.101524ISI: 001537616000001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105010298710OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-372842DiVA, id: diva2:2013871
Note

QC 20251114

Available from: 2025-11-14 Created: 2025-11-14 Last updated: 2025-11-14Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text in DiVA

Other links

Publisher's full textScopus

Authority records

Engholm, Albin

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Engholm, Albin
By organisation
Integrated Transport Research Lab, ITRL
In the same journal
Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives
Transport Systems and Logistics

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
urn-nbn
Total: 13 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf