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Evaluation of Surrogate Models for Simulated Complex Industrial Processes
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Probability, Mathematical Physics and Statistics.
2024 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesisAlternative title
Utvärdering av surrogatmodeller för simulerade komplexa industriella processer (Swedish)
Abstract [en]

This thesis investigates the application of Surrogate Modelling techniques to approximate the behavior of high-fidelity industrial process simulations developed in Dymola. The study, conducted in collaboration with Optimation AB, aims to reduce the computational cost of these simulations while maintaining acceptable accuracy. The focus is on steady-state simulations, with data-driven models trained using Machine Learning techniques such as Multiple Linear Regression, Polynomial Response Surface Model (PRSM), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Neural Network (NN). Two models are developed and exported as Functional Mock-up Units (FMU) to generate training and test datasets. Various regression techniques are compared in terms of predictive accuracy, generalization ability, and computational efficiency. A classification model is also implemented to ensure the validity of input samples for regression models. The Surrogate Models are benchmarked against the original Dymola simulations to evaluate performance. The results indicate that Neural Network-based Surrogate Models outperform traditional regression methods in capturing complex system behavior. However, preprocessing strategies such as exploratory data analysis and outlier filtering significantly impact performance. The study demonstrates that Surrogate Modeling can effectively accelerate simulation workflows, by making rapid steady-state predictions. Future work includes investigating how Machine Learning models developed in Python can be exported as FMUs and extending the approach to dynamic system simulations.

Abstract [sv]

Denna avhandling undersöker tillämpningen av surrogatmodeller för att approximera beteendet hos högupplösta industriprocessimuleringar utvecklade i Dymola. Studien, genomförd i samarbete med Optimation AB, syftar till att minska beräkningstiden för dessa simuleringar samtidigt som en acceptabel noggrannhet bibehålls. Fokus ligger på steady-state-simuleringar, där datadrivna modeller tränas med Maskin Inlärning (ML) metoder såsom Linjär Regression, Polynomial Response Surface Model (PRSM), Support Vector Machine (SVM) och Neurala Nätverk (NN). Två modeller utvecklas i Dymola och exporteras som Functional Mock-up Units (FMU) för att generera tränings- och testdatamängder. Olika regressionstekniker jämförs med avseende på prediktiv noggrannhet och generaliseringsförmåga. En klassificeringsmodell implementeras också för att säkerställa giltigheten hos indata för regressionsmodellerna. Surrogatmodellerna utvärderas mot de ursprungliga Dymola-simuleringarna för att bedöma deras prestanda. Resultaten visar att surrogatmodeller baserade på Neurala Nätverk presterar bättre än traditionella regressionsmetoder när det gäller att fånga komplexa systembeteenden. Det visade sig att utforskande dataanalys och filtrering av avvikare har en betydande påverkan på prestandan. Studien visar att surrogatmodellering effektivt kan förbättra simuleringsarbetsflöden. Framtida arbete inkluderar att undersöka hur Maskininlärning-modeller utvecklade i Python kan exporteras som FMUs samt att utvidga metoden till dynamiska system­simuleringar

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2024.
Series
TRITA-SCI-GRU ; 2024:457
Keywords [en]
Surrogate Model, Machine Learning, Industrial Process Simulation, Modelica, Dymola, Functional Mock-up Unit (FMU), Regression Analysis, Neural Network, Steady-State Simulation, Parameter Variation, Model Evaluation
Keywords [sv]
Surrogatmodell, Maskininlärning, Industriell Processimulering, Modelica, Dymola, Functional Mock-up Unit (FMU), Regressionsanalys, Neurala Nätverk, Steady-State-Simulering, Parametervariation, Modelevaluering
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-377649OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-377649DiVA, id: diva2:2042816
External cooperation
Optimation AB
Subject / course
Mathematical Statistics
Educational program
Master of Science - Applied and Computational Mathematics
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2026-03-03 Created: 2026-03-03 Last updated: 2026-03-03Bibliographically approved

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