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Adapting without replacing: integrating mobile network data into an activity-based dynamic discrete choice model
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Transport and Systems Analysis.ORCID iD: 0009-0001-3334-5684
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Transport and Systems Analysis.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7379-8840
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Transport and Systems Analysis.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5290-5704
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Transport and Systems Analysis.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5290-6101
2026 (English)In: Transportmetrica B: Transport Dynamics, ISSN 2168-0566, Vol. 14, no 1, article id 2621320Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Dynamic discrete choice models (DDCMs) allow us to analyze trip attribute choices within an activity-based framework where the sequence of activities matters. These models have been primarily developed for travel survey data. However, the advent of big data presents new opportunities for mobility analysis. This paper bridges traditional approaches with novel data sources by adapting an established activity-based DDCM to handle anonymized mobile network data. The proposed framework advances methods within transportation planning in two ways. First, dynamic models allow for detailed assessments of sequential travel decisions, for instance related to activity, departure time, and modes. Second, automatically collected data are advantageous as compared to travel surveys that are limited by respondents’ ability and willingness to disclose travel behavior. However, this approach poses methodological challenges, particularly because individuals’ exact locations over time are not directly observed. We address these in a latent-based framework in which the positions of the individuals are treated as latent variables and the location of cell towers as observations. We estimate the model using a stochastic expectation-maximization (StEM) algorithm. The performance is highlighted in a case study of daily travel demand in Stockholm, Sweden. Our paper demonstrates the agility of activity-based DDCMs in adapting to new data sources, by incorporating appropriate modifications within a well-established modeling paradigm.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Informa UK Limited , 2026. Vol. 14, no 1, article id 2621320
Keywords [en]
activity-based models, Dynamic discrete choice models, latent models, mobile network data, stochastic expectation-maximization
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-378147DOI: 10.1080/21680566.2026.2621320ISI: 001703180200001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105031567749OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-378147DiVA, id: diva2:2047855
Note

QC 20260323

Available from: 2026-03-23 Created: 2026-03-23 Last updated: 2026-03-23Bibliographically approved

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Jaafer, AmaniBlom Västberg, OskarEngström, EmmaKarlström, Anders

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