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Techno-economic Optimization of Hybrid PV–CSP Plants with Supercritical CO2 Power Cycles
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Heat and Power Technology.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6108-5229
2026 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Sustainable development
SDG 7: Affordable and clean energy, SDG 8: Decent work and economic growth, SDG 9: Industry, innovation and infrastructure, SDG 11: Sustainable cities and communities, SDG 12: Responsible consumption and production, SDG 13: Climate action
Abstract [en]

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants are a promising technology for decarbonizing the electricity grid due to their ability to integrate cost-effective Thermal Energy Storage (TES) and provide dispatchable solar electricity. However, their deployment has been constrained by comparatively high Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) and by the reliance on large plant sizes to achieve cost competitiveness, resulting in high capital requirements and limited deployment flexibility. Improving power-cycle efficiency and enabling cost-effective operation at smaller scales therefore emerge as key requirements for enhancing CSP competitiveness.

Supercritical CO2 (sCO2) power cycles, high-temperature thermal energy storage technologies, and hybridization with photovoltaic (PV) generation provide complementary pathways to address these limitations. Supercritical CO2 cycles reduce performance penalties at small scales (10 MWe) and enable higher thermodynamic efficiencies at elevated temperatures. However, realizing these efficiency gains requires advanced heat transfer fluids and high-temperature TES media beyond conventional molten-salt systems. In parallel, PV hybridization enables low-cost daytime electricity production, complementing CSP-based generation and improving overall system economics. Together, these approaches provide a pathway toward cost-competitive, dispatchable solar power systems.

This thesis investigates how these technologies can be systematically combined through a system-level techno-economic framework. An integrated modeling tool—MoSES (Modeling of Sustainable Energy Systems)—is developed to perform annual performance simulations, dispatch optimization, and multi-objective techno-economic optimization of hybrid PV–CSP and power-to-heat-to-power (P2H2P) systems across different scales, locations, and operating conditions.

Results show that active PV hybridization—i.e., including an Electric Heater (EH) for charging the thermal energy storage —improves CSP performance, reducing LCOE by 22% at 10 MWe, and 14% at 100 MWe, while increasing economically viable capacity factors to 75–85%. The integration of sCO2 power cycles further enhances competitiveness, reducing LCOE by 40–45% at 10 MWe and enabling economically viable sub-50 MWe CSP plants with reduced capital intensity and improved bankability. At larger scales (100 MWe), sCO2 cycles remain advantageous by enabling higher operating temperatures and improved thermodynamic performance.

Transitioning beyond molten-salt systems, high-temperature CSP architectures significantly improve performance. Particle-based hybrid PV–CSP systems achieve LCOE reductions of 25–30% relative to molten-salt configurations, reaching values around 72 EUR/MWh at capacity factors near 80% at 10 MWe. In high-DNI regions, capacity factors exceed 90%, with further LCOE reductions of approximately 20%. These results highlight the strong coupling between operating temperature, power-cycle efficiency, and system-level competitiveness.

Extending the analysis beyond CSP-specific configurations, power-to-heat-to-power systems shows that high-temperature TES combined with sCO2 power cycles minimizes the levelized cost of storage over a wide temperature range. The results show that charging cost and power-block performance dominate system economics. From a system perspective, P2H2P solutions occupy an intermediate competitiveness domain, bridging the gap between PV–BESS systems, which are optimal at low capacity factors (up to 30%), and hybrid PV–CSP systems, which emerge as the preferred solution for high-dispatchability operation (>60%).

Overall, this thesis establishes a coherent techno-economic design framework in which PV hybridization, advanced TES media, and sCO2 power cycles act as complementary technologies, enabling cost-competitive and highly dispatchable solar power systems for future low-carbon electricity systems.

Abstract [sv]

Koncentrerad solkraft (Concentrating Solar Power, CSP) utgör en lovande teknik för att avkarbonisera elsystemet tack vare dess förmåga att integrera kostnadseffektiv termisk energilagring (Thermal Energy Storage, TES) och leverera planerbar solel. Trots detta har dess utbyggnad begränsats av relativt höga nivåiserade elkostnader (Levelized Cost of Electricity, LCOE) samt av beroendet av stora anläggningsstorlekar för att uppnå kostnadskonkurrenskraft, vilket medför höga kapitalkostnader och begränsad flexibilitet i utbyggnaden. För att stärka CSP:s konkurrenskraft krävs därför både förbättrad verkningsgrad i kraftcykeln och möjligheten till kostnadseffektiv drift vid mindre skala.

Superkritiska CO₂-kraftcykler (sCO₂), högtemperaturbaserade lagringsteknologier och hybridisering med solceller (fotovoltaik, PV) utgör kompletterande strategier för att hantera dessa begränsningar. sCO₂-cykler minskar prestandaförluster vid liten skala (10 MWe) och möjliggör högre termodynamisk verkningsgrad vid förhöjda temperaturer. För att realisera dessa verkningsgradsförbättringar krävs dock avancerade värmebärarmedier och högtemperaturbaserade TES-system bortom konventionella smältsaltslösningar. Samtidigt möjliggör hybridisering med PV produktion av lågkostnadsel under dagtid, vilket kompletterar den planerbara CSP-produktionen och förbättrar systemets totala ekonomi. Tillsammans skapar dessa teknologier en väg mot kostnadseffektiva och planerbara solenergisystem.

Denna avhandling undersöker hur dessa teknologier kan kombineras systematiskt genom ett systemnivåbaserat tekno-ekonomiskt ramverk. Ett integrerat modelleringsverktyg—MoSES (Modeling of Sustainable Energy Systems)—har utvecklats för att genomföra årsbaserade prestandasimuleringar, driftoptimering samt multiobjektiv tekno-ekonomisk optimering av hybrida PV–CSP-system och power-to-heat-to-power (P2H2P)-konfigurationer över olika skalor, geografiska platser och driftförhållanden.

Resultaten visar att aktiv PV-hybridisering—dvs. med inkludering av en elektrisk värmare (EH) för laddning av den termiska energilagringen—förbättrar CSP-systemens prestanda, med en LCOE-reduktion på cirka 22 % vid 10 MWe och 14 % vid 100 MWe, samtidigt som ekonomiskt gångbara kapacitetsfaktorer ökar till 75–85 %. Integrationen av sCO₂-kraftcykler förstärker ytterligare konkurrenskraften, med LCOE-reduktioner på 40–45 % vid liten skala och möjliggör ekonomiskt gångbara CSP-anläggningar under 50 MWe, med lägre kapitalkrav och förbättrad finansierbarhet. Vid större skalor förblir sCO₂-cykler fördelaktiga genom att möjliggöra högre driftstemperaturer och förbättrad termodynamisk prestanda.

Övergången från smältsaltsbaserade system till högtemperaturarkitekturer medför betydande prestandaförbättringar. Partikelbaserade hybrida PV–CSP-system uppnår LCOE-reduktioner på 25–30 % jämfört med smältsaltsbaserade system, med kostnader kring 72 EUR/MWh vid kapacitetsfaktorer nära 80 % vid 10 MWe. I regioner med hög direkt normalinstrålning (DNI) överstiger kapacitetsfaktorerna 90 %, med ytterligare LCOE-reduktioner på cirka 20 %. Dessa resultat belyser den starka kopplingen mellan driftstemperatur, kraftcykelns verkningsgrad och systemets övergripande konkurrenskraft.

Vid en utvidgning bortom CSP-specifika system visar analyser av power-to-heat-to-power att högtemperatur-TES i kombination med sCO₂-cykler minimerar den nivåiserade lagringskostnaden över ett brett temperaturområde. Resultaten visar att laddningskostnad och kraftblockets prestanda dominerar systemekonomin. Ur ett systemperspektiv intar P2H2P-lösningar en mellanposition, mellan PV–batterilagring (PV–BESS), som är optimal vid låga kapacitetsfaktorer (upp till cirka 30 %), och hybrida PV–CSP-system, som utgör den föredragna lösningen för hög planerbarhet (över 60 % kapacitetsfaktor).

Sammanfattningsvis etablerar denna avhandling ett sammanhängande tekno-ekonomiskt ramverk där hybridisering med PV, avancerade TES-teknologier och sCO₂-kraftcykler samverkar för att möjliggöra kostnadseffektiv och planerbar solelproduktion i framtida koldioxidsnåla energisystem.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm, Sweden: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2026. , p. 129
Series
TRITA-ITM-AVL ; 2026:9
Keywords [en]
Concentrating solar power, thermal energy storage, supercritical CO2 power block, hybridization with photovoltaic, electric heater, techno-economic analysis
Keywords [sv]
Koncentrerad solkraft, termisk energilagring, superkritisk CO₂-kraftcykel, hybridisering med solceller, elektrisk värmare, tekno-ekonomisk analys
National Category
Energy Engineering
Research subject
Energy Technology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-380452ISBN: 978-91-8106-567-1 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-380452DiVA, id: diva2:2058849
Public defence
2026-06-01, https://kth-se.zoom.us/j/65838115871, Kollegiesalen, Brinellvägen 8, Stockholm, 09:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
EU, Horizon 2020, 952953EU, Horizon 2020, 101083899EU, Horizon Europe, 101122347
Note

QC 20260508

Available from: 2026-05-08 Created: 2026-05-08 Last updated: 2026-05-26Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Techno-economic optimization of molten salt based CSP plants through integration of supercritical CO2 cycles and hybridization with PV and electric heaters
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Techno-economic optimization of molten salt based CSP plants through integration of supercritical CO2 cycles and hybridization with PV and electric heaters
2023 (English)In: Energy, ISSN 0360-5442, E-ISSN 1873-6785, Vol. 283, article id 128528Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The present study explores the integration of supercritical CO2 (sCO2) power cycles into Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants using molten salt, and the hybridization of these plants with solar photovoltaic (PV) systems through electric heaters. Techno-economic evaluations determined the optimal power cycle configuration and subsystem designs for two different scales and locations and then compared them with state-of-the-art solar power plants. The results show that hybridizing PV with state-of-the-art CSP can lead up to a 22% reduction in the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) compared to standalone CSP systems. This hybridization and the use of electric heaters are particularly beneficial for small-scale installations and locations with low DNI/GHI ratios. By replacing the steam Rankine cycle with a sCO2 power block, a further 42% reduction in LCOE can be achieved at small scales, even with a simple recuperated cycle. In conclusion, the hybridization with PV and the integration of sCO2 power blocks provide cost benefits despite the temperature limitations imposed by the molten salt. Hybrid PV-CSP plants with sCO2 power blocks prove to be a cost-effective solution for capacity factors exceeding 60%. For lower capacity factors, configurations combining PV with battery energy storage or PV with electric heaters, thermal energy storage, and sCO2 power blocks are preferable options.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV, 2023
Keywords
CSP, Electric heater, Hybridization, PV, sCO 2, Techno-economic analysis
National Category
Energy Engineering Energy Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-355075 (URN)10.1016/j.energy.2023.128528 (DOI)001052388400001 ()2-s2.0-85166519835 (Scopus ID)
Funder
StandUp
Note

QC 20241122

Available from: 2024-10-21 Created: 2024-10-21 Last updated: 2026-05-08Bibliographically approved
2. Techno-Economic Analysis of Power-to-Heat-to-Power Plants: Mapping Optimal Combinations of Thermal Energy Storage and Power Cycles
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Techno-Economic Analysis of Power-to-Heat-to-Power Plants: Mapping Optimal Combinations of Thermal Energy Storage and Power Cycles
2024 (English)In: Energy, ISSN 0360-5442, E-ISSN 1873-6785, Vol. 312, article id 133500Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

To enable the widespread exploitation of intermittent, low-cost, and non-dispatchable renewable energy technologies, energy storage plays a key role in providing the required flexibility. This study introduces maps of optimal combination of Thermal Energy Storage (TES) and power cycles, supporting decision-making in power-to-heat-to-power applications. These maps span a wide temperature range from 200 to 1200 °C and are proposed for different charging costs, installed capacities, and storage durations. For thermal-to-electricity reconversion, this study explores power blocks including steam Rankine cycle, supercritical CO2 (sCO2) Brayton cycle, Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC), and combined gas turbine with Rankine and sCO2. Results highlight that, in a grid-based plant with a 50 EUR/MWh charging cost, the most cost-effective pairing involves sCO2 cycles with recompression and intercooling, with particle TES at 600–800 °C. Air packed-bed suits scenarios where TES contributes significantly to capital costs or involves low charging costs. Molten salt TES is the optimal choice when the design temperatures align with salt temperature limitations. Particle TES proves cost-effective across a broad temperature range and scales (10–200 MW). For solar-based systems, the integration of molten salt TES with simple sCO2 recuperated cycles demonstrates market potential for southern European locations.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV, 2024
Keywords
Thermal energy storage, Power-to-heat-to-power, Electric heater, Particle, Packed bed, Molten salt, sCO2, ORC, Steam rankine, Combined cycles, Energy arbitrage
National Category
Energy Systems Energy Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-355080 (URN)10.1016/j.energy.2024.133500 (DOI)001342456400001 ()2-s2.0-85206918511 (Scopus ID)
Funder
EU, Horizon 2020, 952953EU, Horizon 2020, 101083899StandUp
Note

QC 20241108

Available from: 2024-10-21 Created: 2024-10-21 Last updated: 2026-05-08Bibliographically approved
3. Techno-Economic Comparative Analysis of Hybrid PV-CSP Systems: Particle vs. Molten Salt Based Layouts Integrated with sCO2 Power Blocks
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Techno-Economic Comparative Analysis of Hybrid PV-CSP Systems: Particle vs. Molten Salt Based Layouts Integrated with sCO2 Power Blocks
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This study evaluates the techno-economic performance of hybrid PV–CSP power plants using high-temperature particle receivers and compares them directly with molten-salt-based alternatives, with all systems integrated into supercritical sCO2 (sCO2) Brayton power blocks. A unified simulation and optimization framework is applied to quantify the cost and performance potential of particle-based CSP when combined with PV and long-duration thermal storage. For a representative 10 MWe plant located in Évora (Portugal), particle hybrid PV–CSP– sCO2 systems achieve minimum LCOE of 72 EUR/MWh at capacity factors near 80%, demonstrating that particle-based system can enable competitive firm renewable electricity at small scale. Results show that sCO2 cycle layouts including intercooling only can match the techno-economic performance of more advanced configurations because their lower specific investment outweighs differences in thermal efficiency. Parallel electric-heater integration allows flexible TES charging and consistently outperforms EH in series arrangements, which require oversized PV capacities. Sensitivity analyses quantify main impact on the LCOE, driven by solar-field and power-block costs, whereas TES cost plays a secondary role. When the system is in a high-DNI location such as Likana (Chile), the minimum LCOE decreases by 20% and achievable capacity factors exceed 90%, with CSP becoming the dominant generation part and eliminating the need for electric heating. System-level benchmarking against PV–BESS, molten-salt tower and trough CSP, and PV-based electric-heater systems shows that particle hybrid PV–CSP– sCO2 plants consistently deliver the lowest LCOE at capacity factors above 60% at competitive cost.

Keywords
Particle, sCO2, CSP, PV, Electric heater, Hybridization, Techno-economic analysis
National Category
Engineering and Technology Energy Engineering
Research subject
Energy Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-380449 (URN)
Note

QC 20260430

Available from: 2026-04-29 Created: 2026-04-29 Last updated: 2026-05-08Bibliographically approved
4. Techno-economic optimisation of a sodium-chloride salt heat exchanger for concentrating solar power applications
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Techno-economic optimisation of a sodium-chloride salt heat exchanger for concentrating solar power applications
Show others...
2022 (English)In: Solar Energy, ISSN 0038-092X, E-ISSN 1471-1257, Vol. 239, p. 252-267Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

To enhance the economic viability of Concentrating solar power (CSP) plant, recent efforts have been directed towards employing high-temperature working fluid in the receiver and incorporating higher-efficiency power cycles. This work presents a techno-economic analysis of a sodium-chloride salt heat exchanger included in a sodium-driven CSP system with a supercritical CO2 power block. A quasi-steady state heat exchanger model was developed based on the TEMA guidelines, with the possibility of being customised in terms of media adopted, constraints, boundary conditions, and heat transfer correlations. The sodium-salt heat exchanger has been designed aiming at minimising the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) of the plant. The performance and the design of the proposed heat exchanger have been evaluated via multi-objective optimisation and sensitivity analyses. Results show that advanced CSP systems employing sodium and an indirect chloride salt storage can represent an economically viable solution and can drive towards the future goal of 5 USD/MWh. For a base-case 100 MWe plant with 12 h of storage, a LCOE of 72.7 USD/MWh and a capacity factor (CF) higher than 60% were reached. The techno-economic investigations showed the potential LCOE reduction of 6% as well as the flexibility and robustness of the heat exchanger model. The developed tool lays the groundwork to explore potential improvements of this new generation of CSP systems.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV, 2022
Keywords
CSP, Sodium, Chloride salt, Heat exchanger, Techno-economic optimisation
National Category
Other Environmental Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-315147 (URN)10.1016/j.solener.2022.04.052 (DOI)000809826200002 ()2-s2.0-85130109935 (Scopus ID)
Funder
StandUp
Note

QC 20220701

Available from: 2022-07-01 Created: 2022-07-01 Last updated: 2026-05-08Bibliographically approved
5. A Methodology to Identify the Most Promising Concentrating Solar Power Layouts to be Integrated with Supercritical CO2 Power Cycles
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A Methodology to Identify the Most Promising Concentrating Solar Power Layouts to be Integrated with Supercritical CO2 Power Cycles
2022 (English)Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

The integration of compact and high-efficient supercritical CO2 (sCO2) power blocks has been identified as one of the key alternatives for enhancing the economic viability, and the flexibility of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants. The present work aims at identifying and selecting the most promising CSP plant configurations that can be integrated with sCO2 power blocks. Several sCO2 – CSP layouts are identified, classified by the receiver heat transfer fluid and storage design, and benchmarked through a methodology developed by the authors. An analytical approach, based on purposely defined techno-economic criteria, is defined to benchmark each layout with an overall score. The following criteria are considered: maturity, low-cost potential, maximum temperature, safety, and system complexity. The overall score is then derived by combining the mentioned criteria and weighting factors. A comparative analysis is proposed, in which the higher the resulting overall score, the more attractive the layout was deemed. The CSP layout employing molten salts results in being the most attractive one, standing out for its maturity. The air- or particle-based configurations combined with packed beds or particle silos as storage are promising for their low-cost potential and high operating temperatures.

National Category
Energy Systems Energy Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-355096 (URN)
Conference
The 7th International Supercritical CO2 Power Cycles Symposium. February 21 – 24, 2022, San Antonio, Texas
Funder
EU, Horizon 2020, 952953
Note

QC 20241023

Available from: 2024-10-22 Created: 2024-10-22 Last updated: 2026-05-08Bibliographically approved
6. Moses – the New Techno-Economic Optimization Modeling Tool for Hybrid Solar Power Plants
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Moses – the New Techno-Economic Optimization Modeling Tool for Hybrid Solar Power Plants
2023 (English)In: SWC 2023 Proceedings, International Solar Energy Society (ISES) , 2023Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Techno-economic performance simulations play a crucial role in assessing the feasibility, cost-effectiveness, and overall impact emerging renewable energy system designs. Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) is a promising technology for decarbonizing the electricity grid by integrating cost-effective thermal energy storage (TES). However, their development is hindered by their high levelized cost of electricity compared to other energy sources. Hybrid systems that connect with solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery systems are a viable solution to reduce the cost of these plants while maintaining flexibility and guaranteeing firm production despite the intermittence of solar availability. This paper presents MoSES (Modeling of Solar Energy Systems), an open-source techno-economic modeling tool designed to evaluate the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of hybrid PV-CSP plants. While existing simulation tools perform well with established systems, they face challenges when adapting to new components, configurations, and operating strategies. MoSES addresses this challenge by providing a simulation framework and a versatile library of components and control strategies that can be modified to meet end-users’ needs. The tool enables simulation activities to assess the advantages, optimize the design, and benchmark different hybrid PV-CSP plant layouts. This paper outlines the methodology employed to determine system design, costs, and key performance indicators, as well as to estimate operational performance. Furthermore, a case study is presented to illustrate MoSES's effectiveness as a tool for conducting annual simulations despite being in its early stages of development. MoSES provides a valuable contribution to the solar community by enabling the evaluation of the impact of emerging solar-based system designs.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
International Solar Energy Society (ISES), 2023
National Category
Energy Systems Energy Engineering
Research subject
Energy Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-355092 (URN)10.18086/swc.2023.08.02 (DOI)2-s2.0-85206948455 (Scopus ID)
Conference
Solar World Congress 2023
Funder
EU, Horizon 2020, 952953
Note

QC 20241023

Available from: 2024-10-22 Created: 2024-10-22 Last updated: 2026-05-08Bibliographically approved

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