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Quantitative Safety Analysis for Industry: A Model-Based Approach
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Engineering Design, Mechatronics and Embedded Control Systems. TRATON.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7972-8843
2026 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Within the industry, quantitative safety analysis is often based on well-established methods that have existed for decades. The perhaps most prominent example is fault trees, in which the probability of a system failure is computed from the probability of component-level malfunctions. While these classical methods has the advantage of being well-established and easy to understand, they are lacking in two major areas. Firstly, the models does not describe the architecture of the system. Since this is the case, they are error-prone when changes are made in the system and two different engineers tend to produce vastly different models of the system. Secondly, they only support exponential distributions as a mean to introduce stochastic behavior in the models. As a result of this restriction, the complex dynamic behavior of the cyber-physical system that constitutes a road vehicle today cannot be modeled accurately. Within the academia, many methods, languages, and tools have been suggested in the last decades that would would help circumvent one or both of these restrictions. However, these methods has to date not reached prominent traction within the industry. In this thesis, languages and analysis methods with tool support for quantitative safety analysis that surpass the above mentioned restrictions while still being attractive candidates for the industry are presented.

Abstract [sv]

Inom industrin är kvantitativa säkerhetsanalyser frekvent baserade på väletablerade metoder som har existerat i decennium. Det kanske mest prominenta exemplet är felträd, med vilka sannolikheten för ett system fallerar beräknas utifrån sannolikheten för komponentfel. Dessa klassiska metoder har fördelen av att vara väletablerade och enkla att förstå men de har två tydliga nackdelar. Den första nackdelen är att modellerna inte reflekterar arkitekturen av systemet som modelleras. Resultatet av detta är att det i dessa klassiska metoder är både är svårt att översätta förändringar av systemet till förändringar i modellen och att olika ingenjörer tenderar att skapa tydligt divergenta modeller för samma system. Den andra nackdelen är att de klassiska metoderna bara stödjer exponentiella distributioner för att representera stokastiskt beteende i modellerna. Detta resulterar i att de komplexa dynamiska beroenden i dagens system ofta inte kan modelleras med noggrannhet. Inom forskningen har många mer avancerade modeleringsspråk, metoder och verktyg som kringgår en eller båda av dessa nackdelar presenterats under dem senaste decennierna. Trots det har dessa metoder svårt att hitta ett fotfäste i industrin. I denna avhandling presenteras nya modeleringsspråk och analysmetoder men verktygsstöd för kvantitative säkerhetsanalyser som kringgår båda nackdelarna av dem klassiska metoderna samtidigt som de är attraktiva kandidater för industrin.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2026. , p. 67
Series
TRITA-ITM-AVL ; 2026:14
Keywords [en]
Safety, Reliability, Cyber-Physical system, Model-based safety analysis, Automotive
Keywords [sv]
Säkerhet, Pålitlighet, Cyber-fysiska system, Modell-baserad säkerhetsanalys, Vägfordon
National Category
Embedded Systems
Research subject
Machine Design
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-381110ISBN: 978-91-8106-622-7 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-381110DiVA, id: diva2:2060849
Public defence
2026-06-15, Q2 / https://kth-se.zoom.us/j/69617165150, Malvinas väg 10, Stockholm, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
Vinnova, 2020-05131Available from: 2026-05-19 Created: 2026-05-19 Last updated: 2026-06-09Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Transient Analysis of Hierarchical Semi-Markov Process Models with Tool Support in Stateflow
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Transient Analysis of Hierarchical Semi-Markov Process Models with Tool Support in Stateflow
2021 (English)In: Quantitative Evaluation Of Systems (QEST 2021) / [ed] Abate, A Marin, A, Springer Nature , 2021, Vol. 12846, p. 105-126Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Semi-Markov process (SMP) models can not always accurately model real-world systems. To help the situation the paper proposes an hierarchical extension to SMP-models, called Hierarchical SMP-models (HSMP-models) and as the first contribution present an algorithm for performing transient analysis of HSMP-models where the CDF of each transition is an expolynomial. As the second contribution, a numerical method is presented for HSMP-models with an underlying stochastic process not satisfying bounded regeneration. The third, and final, contribution is tool support based on Stateflow for transient analysis of HSMP-models. Furthermore, an industrial case study for transient analysis of HSMP-models with unbounded regeneration representing a battery management system is presented.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Nature, 2021
Series
Lecture Notes in Computer Science, ISSN 0302-9743
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-303776 (URN)10.1007/978-3-030-85172-9_6 (DOI)000696682500006 ()2-s2.0-85115177568 (Scopus ID)
Conference
18th International Conference on Quantitative Evaluation Systems (QEST), AUG 23-27, 2021, ELECTR NETWORK
Note

Part of proceedings: ISBN 978-3-030-85172-9, QC 20230117

Available from: 2021-10-22 Created: 2021-10-22 Last updated: 2026-05-19Bibliographically approved
2. A Stochastic Extension of Stateflow
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A Stochastic Extension of Stateflow
2022 (English)In: ICPE 22: Proceedings of the 2022 ACM/SPEC on International Conference on Performance Engineering / [ed] Association for Computing Machinery, New York, NY, United States, Association for Computing Machinery (ACM) , 2022, p. 211-222Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Although commonly used in industry, a major drawback of Stateflow is that it lacks support for stochastic properties; properties that are often needed to build accurate models of real-world systems. In order to solve this problem, as the first contribution, Stochastic Stateflow (SSF) is presented as a stochastic extension of a subset of Stateflow models. As the second contribution, the tool SMP-tool is updated with support for SSF models specified in Stateflow. Finally, as the third contribution, an industrial case study is presented.  

 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Association for Computing Machinery (ACM), 2022
Keywords
Stateflow, SSF, SMP-tool, Stochastic, Model-based
National Category
Computational Mathematics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-313247 (URN)10.1145/3489525.3511679 (DOI)000883411400023 ()2-s2.0-85128682345 (Scopus ID)
Conference
13th ACM/SPEC International Conference on Performance Engineering
Projects
SafeDim
Funder
Vinnova, 2020-05131
Note

Part of proceedings: ISBN 978-1-4503-9143-6

QC 20220621

Available from: 2022-06-01 Created: 2022-06-01 Last updated: 2026-05-19Bibliographically approved
3. Probabilistic Approach Using SMP Tool for Systems Safety of Road Vehicles
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Probabilistic Approach Using SMP Tool for Systems Safety of Road Vehicles
Show others...
(Swedish)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Keywords
Safety, ISO 26262, Probability, SMP Tool, Quantitative, Road vehicles
National Category
Embedded Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-381116 (URN)
Funder
Vinnova, 2020-05131
Note

Extended version of paper presented at the 34th European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL) 2024

QC 20260512

Available from: 2026-05-12 Created: 2026-05-12 Last updated: 2026-05-19Bibliographically approved
4. Computing Reliability of Safety-Critical Systems from Stochastic Stateflow Models
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Computing Reliability of Safety-Critical Systems from Stochastic Stateflow Models
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Despite its potential benefits, advanced modeling languages for safety analysis has yet to be widely adopted by industry in favor classical modeling languages such as Fault Trees which rely on the Markov assumption and does not reflect system architecture. Stochastic StateFlow (SSF) is a previously introduced modeling language, built upon the widely used tool Stateflow, and designed to promote the adoption of advanced modeling languages in industry. Specifically, reliability is a fundamental property of interest when analyzing safety-critical systems. In this paper, it is presented how reliability can be computed from SSF models.

Keywords
Stochastic Processes, Safety, Reliability, Automotive applications
National Category
Embedded Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-381099 (URN)
Funder
Vinnova, 2020-05131
Note

QC 20260511

Available from: 2026-05-11 Created: 2026-05-11 Last updated: 2026-05-19Bibliographically approved
5. Failure Behavior Modeling via Atomic Modeling Concepts
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Failure Behavior Modeling via Atomic Modeling Concepts
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Keywords
model, failure behavior, safety, transformation
National Category
Embedded Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-380088 (URN)
Funder
Vinnova, 2020-05131
Note

Accepted for publishing in Software and Systems Modeling, Springer

QC 20260422

Available from: 2026-04-21 Created: 2026-04-21 Last updated: 2026-05-19Bibliographically approved

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