Pantograph collector strips on rail vehicles are subject to high wear, and a homogeneous wear distribution is crucial for reliable operation and for reducing replacement rates. This study uses numerical simulations and a drive cycle perspective to estimate wear patterns using a heuristic wear model. The purpose is a sensitivity analysis of the wear estimates with respect to variations in the pantograph-catenary dynamics. The simulated contact force dynamics at each time step are used to calculate the instantaneous wear rate and location. Operational conditions are replicated using a drive cycle comprising representative power-speed couples. Wear patterns are calculated for each operational stage and related to the underlying dynamic contact patterns. The wear patterns and rates for each stage are combined to form the resulting patterns for the entire drive cycle. The study finds that accurately estimating the wear pattern requires knowledge of the dynamic contact distribution of the wire on the collector strip. The contact pattern in section overlaps has a noticeable influence and should always be considered. The distributions of dynamic contact instances and wear rate closely match across the studied cases. Considering variations in mean contact force dependent on lateral contact position further improves the wear estimate.