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Machine Learning Methods for Predicting Mean and Uncertainty in Nodal Cross-Section Libraries
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Physics, Nuclear Science and Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4704-883X
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Physics, Nuclear Science and Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7943-7517
2026 (English)In: Nuclear Technology, ISSN 0029-5450, E-ISSN 1943-7471Article in journal (Refereed) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

This study presents a comparative analysis of regression techniques for modeling few-group cross-section libraries as a function of state parameters, with prediction targets that include both mean values and covariance matrices to represent aleatoric uncertainty from nuclear data perturbations. Beyond absolute accuracy, the primary focus is convergence performance: whether the prediction error decreases monotonically as the number of unique training samples Nbranch increases. The results show that the convergence behavior differs substantially across the methods. In particular, the transformed neural network model exhibits inconsistent, nonmonotonic convergence with respect to Nbranch, indicating limited robustness. In contrast, the transformed polynomial regression (tp-PR) model shows stable convergence and achieves the best performance at the largest training set (Nbranch = 1024) with a kinf error of 0.015%. A comparison of the predicted and reference keff distributions further shows that the tp-PR model was able to reproduce uncertainty induced by nuclear data uncertainty.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Informa UK Limited , 2026.
Keywords [en]
Cross section representation, aleatoric uncertainty, neural network
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics Fusion, Plasma and Space Physics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-386099DOI: 10.1080/00295450.2026.2687339ISI: 001818795500001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105044674851OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-386099DiVA, id: diva2:2088129
Note

QC 20260724

Available from: 2026-07-24 Created: 2026-07-24 Last updated: 2026-07-24Bibliographically approved

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Chan, Yi MengDufek, Jan

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
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  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
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  • html
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  • asciidoc
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