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Unplanned Disruption Analysis and Impact Modeling in Urban Railway Systems
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2141-0389
2022 (English)In: Transportation Research Record, ISSN 0361-1981, E-ISSN 2169-4052, Vol. 2676, no 10, p. 16-27Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Unplanned disruptions bring challenges to urban railway system operations because of their impacts on safety, operation efficiency, and service quality. Identifying the contributing factors of operation delays and affected areas under unplanned disruptions is critical for agencies to make effective and informed management decisions. Despite its importance, few studies have been reported on unplanned disruption analysis in urban railway systems or they have been limited in their analysis and modeling because of the lack of disruption data. This paper collects a complete set of unplanned disruption data for 7 years in Hong Kong and explores important factors affecting operation delays and affected areas. Quantile regression (QR) models are developed to explore the causes of operation delays under unplanned disruptions. The significant factors include the time of day, weather condition, signal control system (moving/fixed block), line types (urban/suburban), line operation direction, disruption location (underground/ground/elevated), the number of affected stations, and disruption types (e.g., tracing, locomotive and rolling stock, passengers, and operation). A binary logit model is developed to explore the variables contributing to the affected areas (single or multiple stations). The results show that the affected area is significantly influenced by the signal control system, line types, line operation direction, disruption location, terminal/departure station involved or not, transfer station involved or not, and disruption types. The findings provide useful insights into unplanned disruptions and support the development of engineering and policy countermeasures to prevent and mitigate unplanned disruption effects on operations and services. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
SAGE Publications , 2022. Vol. 2676, no 10, p. 16-27
Keywords [en]
crash analysis, crash prediction models, crash severity, emergency, light rail transit, modeling and forecasting, operation, public transportation, safety, subway, urban, Control systems, Mass transportation, Railroad accidents, Railroad transportation, Subways, Urban transportation, Crash prediction, Crash prediction model, Prediction modelling
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-329023DOI: 10.1177/03611981221088221ISI: 000791008200001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85141769331OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-329023DiVA, id: diva2:1767513
Note

QC 20230614

Available from: 2023-06-14 Created: 2023-06-14 Last updated: 2023-06-14Bibliographically approved

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Ma, Zhenliang

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