kth.sePublications KTH
Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Local bias adjustment, duration-weighted probabilities, and automatic construction of tariff cells
Department of Mathematics, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
Department of Mathematics, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Computer Science, Software and Computer systems, SCS. Länsförsäkringar Alliance, Stockholm, Sweden.
2023 (English)In: Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, ISSN 0346-1238, E-ISSN 1651-2030, Vol. 2023, no 10, p. 946-973Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We study non-life insurance pricing and present a general procedure for constructing a distribution-free locally unbiased predictor of the risk premium based on any initially suggested predictor. The resulting predictor is piecewise constant, corresponding to a partition of the covariate space, and by construction auto-calibrated. Two key issues are the appropriate partitioning of the covariate space and the handling of randomly varying durations, acknowledging possible early termination of contracts. A basic idea in the present paper is to partition the predictions from the initial predictor, which as a by-product defines a partition of the covariate space. Two different approaches to create partitions are discussed in detail using (i) duration-weighted equal-probability binning, and (ii) binning by duration-weighted regression trees. Given a partitioning procedure, the size of the partition to be used is obtained using cross-validation. In this way we obtain an automatic data-driven tariffication procedure, where the number of tariff cells corresponds to the size of the partition. We illustrate the procedure based on both simulated and real insurance data, using both simple GLMs and GBMs as initial predictors. The resulting tariffs are shown to have a rather small number of tariff cells while maintaining or improving the predictive performance compared to the initial predictors.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Informa UK Limited , 2023. Vol. 2023, no 10, p. 946-973
Keywords [en]
automatic tariffication, duration-weighted probabilities, Local bias adjustment, non-life pricing
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-338415DOI: 10.1080/03461238.2023.2176251ISI: 000935519500001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85148100276OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-338415DiVA, id: diva2:1806642
Note

QC 20231023

Available from: 2023-10-23 Created: 2023-10-23 Last updated: 2023-10-23Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text in DiVA

Other links

Publisher's full textScopus

Authority records

Palmquist, Johan

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Palmquist, Johan
By organisation
Software and Computer systems, SCS
In the same journal
Scandinavian Actuarial Journal
Probability Theory and Statistics

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
urn-nbn
Total: 44 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf