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Probabilistic time estimation of tunnels constructed with multiple headings
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Soil and Rock Mechanics.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4824-420x
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Soil and Rock Mechanics.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5372-7519
2024 (English)In: Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, ISSN 0886-7798, E-ISSN 1878-4364, Vol. 153, article id 106013Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Transport infrastructure projects frequently encounter challenges such as schedule delays and cost overruns, leading to substantial misallocation of public or private resources. These issues are often exacerbated by uncertainties in time and cost estimation outcomes. To address this, various models have been developed in recent years to enable probabilistic estimation for tunneling projects, considering uncertainties. However, the impact of uncertainties on the critical path and its implications on time and cost estimations have not been discussed explicitly and in detail for network underground structures encompassing multiple construction paths. In this study, we update the KTH time and cost estimation model using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. This updated model enables simultaneous round-by-round construction simulation across all paths in network underground structures. Consequently, it accommodates uncertainty in the critical path and its influence on time estimation outcomes. Additionally, the updated model introduces an innovative technique to model geological uncertainties along tunnel routes, thereby contributing to the field's diversity. Practical application of the updated model is showcased using the Uri Hearace tunnel as an illustrative example. The paper also delves into the practical implications of the findings from a decision-maker's standpoint, as well as discussing the model's limitations.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV , 2024. Vol. 153, article id 106013
Keywords [en]
Construction time, Construction path, Underground structure, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Production effort
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-352580DOI: 10.1016/j.tust.2024.106013ISI: 001295455700001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85200970263OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-352580DiVA, id: diva2:1894760
Note

QC 20240903

Available from: 2024-09-03 Created: 2024-09-03 Last updated: 2024-09-03Bibliographically approved

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Mohammadi, MohammadSpross, Johan

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