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Prediction of crimes using environmental features in Stockholm
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Urban and Regional Studies.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0529-4824
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Geoinformatics.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9692-8636
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Urban and Regional Studies.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5302-1698
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Background

This study explores the potential of predicting crime patterns in Stockholm by integrating environmental features from remote sensing data, weather conditions, socioeconomic factors, and urban structure characteristics. The aim is to develop a predictive model for three types of crime—outdoor rape, residential burglary, and robbery—using a spatio-temporal framework that captures variations in time of day, day of the week, and seasonal changes.

 

Methods

Historical crime data from 2019 to 2023 are combined with environmental data, including high-resolution aerial imagery and night-time light radiance values, along with socioeconomic and land use factors. Weather conditions are also included as key variables. A Random Forest classifier is applied to different combinations of these datasets, and model performance is evaluated based on temporal factors. SHAP analysis is used to identify the most influential predictors of crime occurrence.

 

Results

The results show that models accounting for seasonal variation, particularly when incorporating weather variables, perform better than other temporal divisions. Environmental factors, such as night-time lighting and urban structure, emerge as critical for predicting night-time crimes.

 

Conclusions

The findings suggest that combining diverse data sources can improve the accuracy of crime prediction models, supporting more effective crime prevention strategies. However, challenges such as the resolution limitations of night-time light data and the need for more contextual factors persist. Future research should focus on enhancing model accuracy by incorporating additional real-time data and improving temporal resolution to create safer urban environments.

Keywords [en]
Crime prediction, remote sensing data, random forest, temporal analysis
National Category
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Research subject
Planning and Decision Analysis, Urban and Regional Studies
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-354129OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-354129DiVA, id: diva2:1901718
Funder
Swedish Research Council Formas, 2020-01999
Note

QC 20240930

Available from: 2024-09-30 Created: 2024-09-30 Last updated: 2024-10-01Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Understanding crime patterns using spatial data analysis: Case studies in Stockholm, Sweden
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Understanding crime patterns using spatial data analysis: Case studies in Stockholm, Sweden
2024 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Understanding the complex relationship between urban environments and crime is crucial for effective urban planning and crime prevention strategies. Spatial analytical methods have provided valuable knowledge into crime patterns, enabling the detection of crime-concentrated environments and informing law enforcement operations and urban planning interventions. The international literature highlights the increasing use of remote sensing in crime analysis, driven by improved data availability and accuracy. Given the potential of this approach, this thesis investigates the use of spatio-temporal data analyses, particularly the incorporation of remote sensing data along with traditional socio-demographic and land use indicators in understanding the dynamics of crime in urban environments. Four crime categories—cannabis-related crimes, street theft, residential burglaries, and sexual crimes—are investigated using Stockholm City in Sweden as a case study. Remote sensing data, particularly very high-resolution imagery, combined with machine learning algorithms, such as the Random Forest classifier, facilitate the prediction of crime risk areas and the identification of environmental factors associated with crime occurrences. While the thesis reflects upon the advantages and disadvantages of using remote sensing in crime analyses, findings offer practical insights for policymakers, urban planners, and law enforcement agencies, enabling the development of data-informed strategies to foster safer and more resilient urban environments.

Abstract [sv]

Förståelsen av det komplexa sambandet mellan urbana miljöer och brott är avgörande för effektiv stadsplanering och brottsförebyggande strategier. Rumsliga analytiska metoder har gett värdefulla insikter om brottsmönster, vilket möjliggör identifiering av miljöer med hög brottskoncentration och ger underlag för brottsbekämpningsinsatser och stadsplaneringsåtgärder. Den internationella litteraturen lyfter fram den ökande användningen av fjärranalys inom brottsanalys, vilket drivs av förbättrad dataåtkomst och noggrannhet. Med tanke på potentialen i denna metod utforskar denna avhandling användningen av spatio-temporala dataanalyser, särskilt införlivandet av fjärranalysdata tillsammans med konventionella socio-demografiska och markanvändningsindikatorer för att förstå dynamiken kring brott i urbana miljöer. Fyra brottskategorier – cannabisrelaterade brott, fickstölder, bostadsinbrott och sexualbrott – undersöks med Stockholms stad i Sverige som fallstudie. Fjärranalysdata, särskilt bilder med mycket hög upplösning, i kombination med machine learning-algoritmer som Random Forest-klassificeraren, underlättar prediktionen av brottsriskområden och identifieringen av miljöfaktorer som är förknippade med brottsförekomster. Även om avhandlingen reflekterar över fördelar och nackdelar med att använda fjärranalys i brottsanalys, erbjuder våra resultat praktiska insikter för beslutsfattare, stadsplanerare och brottsbekämpande myndigheter, vilket möjliggör utvecklingen av datainformerade strategier för att främja säkrare och mer motståndskraftiga urbana miljöer.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2024. p. 50
Series
TRITA-ABE-DLT ; 2423
Keywords
Exploratory spatial data analysis, random forest classifier, regression analysis, remote sensing data, spatial crime analysis, Utforskande rumslig dataanalys, random forest-klassificerare, regressionsanalys, fjärranalysdata, rumslig brottsanalys
National Category
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Research subject
Planning and Decision Analysis, Urban and Regional Studies
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-354130 (URN)978-91-8106-075-1 (ISBN)
Public defence
2024-10-25, Kollegiesalen, Brinellvägen 8, KTH Campus, https://kth-se.zoom.us/s/66904913390, Stockholm, 09:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Projects
Development of remote sensing data use for safe environment planning
Funder
Swedish Research Council Formas, 2020-01999
Note

QC 241002

Available from: 2024-10-02 Created: 2024-10-01 Last updated: 2024-10-03Bibliographically approved

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Ioannidis, IoannisNascetti, AndreaCeccato, Vania

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