Predicting plateau atmospheric ozone concentrations by a machine learning approach: A case study of a typical city on the southwestern plateau of ChinaShow others and affiliations
2024 (English)In: Environmental Pollution, ISSN 0269-7491, E-ISSN 1873-6424, Vol. 363, article id 125071Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]
Atmospheric ozone (O3) has been placed on the priority control pollutant list in China's 14th Five-Year Plan. Due to their unique meteorological conditions, plateau regions contain high concentrations of atmospheric O3. However, traditional experimental methods for determining O3 concentrations using automatic monitoring stations cannot predict O3 trends. In this study, two machine learning models (a nonlinear auto-regressive model with external inputs (NARX) and a temporal convolution network (TCN)) were developed to predict O3 concentrations in a plateau area in the Kunming region by considering the effects of meteorological parameters, air quality parameters, and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). The plateau O3 prediction accuracy of the machine learning models was found to be much higher than those of numerical models that served as a comparison. The O3 values predicted by the machine learning models closely matched the actual monitoring data. The temporal distribution of plateau O3 displayed a high all-day peak from February to May. A correlation analysis between O3 concentrations and feature parameters demonstrated that humidity is the feature with the highest absolute correlation (−0.72), and was negatively correlated with O3 concentrations during all test periods. VOCs and temperatures were also found to have high positive correlation coefficients with O3 during periods of significant O3 pollution. After negating the effects of meteorological parameters, the predicted O3 concentrations decreased significantly, whereas they increased in the absence of NOx. Although individual VOCs were found to greatly affect the O3 concentration, the total VOC (TVOC) concentration had a relatively small effect. The proposed machine learning model was demonstrated to predict plateau O3 concentrations and distinguish how different features affect O3 variations.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV , 2024. Vol. 363, article id 125071
Keywords [en]
Machine learning, NARX neural network, Plateau O 3, Temporal convolutional network, VOCs
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-354632DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2024.125071ISI: 001333159200001PubMedID: 39368623Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85205431864OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-354632DiVA, id: diva2:1904528
Note
QC 20241029
2024-10-092024-10-092025-05-27Bibliographically approved